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United States GP Betting

Race: 2012 United States Grand Prix
Date: 2:00pm EST. Sunday, November 18, 2012
Track / Location: Circuit of the Americas. Austin, Tx. USA
Track Details: 56 laps, 5.512 Km lap distance, 308.405 race distance.

Formula 1 is back in the United States, at a shiny new track in Austin, Texas. From an American F1 racing fan standpoint, this is very exciting. From a betting perspective, a new track always makes things interesting. Although we can dissect a circuit on paper, there are all sorts of little things that can change the course of a race, things we don’t yet know about the track. Although this can make it harder to predict an outright winner, it can also provide us with better value than we’re used to getting from other F1 races.

2012 USGP Betting Odds

US Friendly
Sebastian Vettel
+135 (2.35)
Lewis Hamilton
+225 (3.25)
Fernando Alonso
+500 (6.00)
Mark Webber
+800 (9.00)
Jenson Button
+1100 (12.00)
Kimi Räikkönen
+1600 (17.00)
Romain Grosjean
+4000 (41.00)
Pastor Maldonado
+8000 (81.00)
Felipe Massa
+10000 (101.00)

My Favourite Bet for the 2012 USGP:

Räikkönen at 17.00 at Bet365.com (non-US punters)

Räikkönen at +1600 at Bovada.lv (US bettors welcome)

United States GP Betting Picks

This article is being written on Thursday night at 9:30pm EST, so we’re still a ways off from knowing the starting grid. Personally, this is when I like to bet on F1. Although we can get caught with our pants down, this is also a great time to look for value. Betting before the starting grid is set often means that we’re betting on the pole itself, because it’s so difficult for drivers to pass on some of the circuits.

At the United States GP, there are a couple of long straights, along with some nice technical sections as well. There is a blind hairpin turn that requires a bit of faith, along with 8 third-gear turns, and some significant elevation changes throughout the circuit. There are a few good places for drivers to pass, and the longest straight should see top speeds in the neighborhood of 195mph. Although the straights give obvious advantage to the fastest cars, this is not where the race will be decided.

This is a circuit that suits a well-rounded car and driver, and a driver who is confident in his cars abilities & limitations. I like three drivers in this race. They are Sebastian Vettel, Kimi Kimi Räikkönen, and Fernando Alonso. Fuel consumption is expected to play a part in this race, similar to Abu Dhabi where each of these guys finished on the podium. Also, these are three of the best all-around drivers, along with recent successes.

Sebastian Vettel at the 2012 USGP

At 2.25 – 2.35 (+135 American odds), there isn’t much value on Vettel. One mistake, one miscalculation on a new track, or just by getting flat-out beaten by someone else, there are too many variables that could go wrong to justify little better than even odds. He very well may win this race, but the value for betting on him isn’t there.

Kimi Räikkönen at the 2012 USGP

At the time I write this article, Räikkönen is 17.00 (+1600) at each of our recommended mobile betting sites. After his win two weeks ago in Abu Dhabi, Räikkönen will be coming in feeling confident, and he’s looking to lock down third place in the Drivers Championship – an amazing accomplishment for him and for Lotus-Renault. To steal a poker term, Kimi comes into the 2012 USGP basically on a freeroll. He has little to lose, and should be feeling more excitement than pressure. Vettel and Alonso are still separated by just 10 points in the WDC, and the pressure is on those drivers.

Another reason I like Kimi Räikkönen’s chances is because throughout 2012 he’s proven his ability to move up the grid. In almost every race this year, his race performance has been better than his starting position, which means he’s driving with confidence and aggressiveness. He had this to say about the new Circuit of the Americas F1 race track:

First of all, it looks fantastic and from what I have experienced on the computer it also must feel fantastic to race it. I am very much looking forward to getting into the car tomorrow and getting a taste. Superficially you have to say that with the many colours it looks like a piece of art, so let’s hope that it is also arty to drive.

Mentally, this is where you want your driver to be. At 17.00, how can we not bet on Kimi Räikkönen? The potential payout is fantastic, and even if he starts down in P3-P5, he has a legitimate shot at the win. Once again, this is all based on pre-qualifying, so keep in mind we’re taking more risk betting right now. However, if he starts in P1-P3, his odds will come way down. If you like Räikkönen, now is the time to bet on him.

Fernando Alonso at the 2012 USGP

Alonso is currently at 6.00 (+500). With the results he’s had this year, along with his second place finish in Abu Dhabi, Alonso has to be considered a favourite at the 2012 United States Grand Prix. Trailing Vettel by just 10 points in the WDC race, nobody wants the win more than Alonso does. The problem is, aside from Abu Dhabi two weeks ago, Alonso has been finishing behind Red Bull since Singapore.

Alonso’s Ferrari team needs to take a step forward at the USGP, and it’s going to be difficult. If he’s lucky enough to beat Vettel (and Webber & Hamilton for that matter), he still needs to beat Räikkönen. All of these drivers are going to make it tough on him, and McLaren-Mercedes has made it no secret they’re going after Ferrari this Sunday.

Currently, Ferrari leads McLaren-Mercedes by 22 points in the WCC (340-318), and they’ve put a target on Ferrari’s back. Will we see team play by Hamilton and Button against Alonso? Maybe from Button, but I don’t expect to see Hamilton go after Ferrari as much as I expect him to try to win the race. Hamilton isn’t coming back to Mercedes-McLaren next year, and I expect him to run a selfish race at the USGP. However, Button is coming back to McLaren-Mercedes next year, and he’ll be feeling more responsibility to the team.

All things considered, I think this is a good track for Alonso, but the cards might be stacked against him. With that said, he could easily prove me wrong, and at 6.00 we’re getting decent value on him. Unless Alonso qualifies in a low position (unlikely), or in P1-P2, his odds won’t change ‘too much’. If you really like Alonso at the 2012 US Grand Prix, go ahead and take 6.00. It’s less likely his odds will get greater than shorter, so now would be the time to lock him down. However, if you’re not confident in his chances, it would be smart to wait until Friday or even Saturday practices have finished before betting on him. If Alonso starts anywhere in P4 or lower, I’d stay away from him.

This article was written by Jess

Jess is the editor of MobileSportsBetting.com. His job duties include everything nobody else is doing, and making sure it all gets done on time. When he gets a chance, Jess loves to write about NFL, MLB, Formula 1, and tennis betting.

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