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UFC 257 Method of Victory Props Predictions

by —January 20, 2021 in All Sports, UFC

Conor McGregor(22-4) @ Dustin Poirier(26-6-0-1)

  • Where: Fight Island. Abu Dhabi
  • When: January 23, 2021 12:00 pm EST
  • Moneyline: McGregor (-315) vs. Poirier (+245)
  • Over / Under: Over 2.5 Rounds (+130) vs. Under 2.5 Rounds (-175)

UFC 257 Method of Victory Props PredictionsUFC 257 is on Saturday and will feature a rematch between Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier.

We’ve been treated to a lot of UFC fights lately. UFC on ABC 1 was this past Saturday and UFC on ESPN 20 was this afternoon (Wednesday). Now we move to UFC 257, which is a stacked card.

If you’re a UFC handicapper, you know a lot of value is found in the method of victory props.

With this bet, we need to predict the winner of a fight and how they’ll win the fight. The three options are TKO/KO, submission or decision. I’ve identified the best method of victory props for UFC 257.

McGregor vs. Poirier Picks

Best Bet: McGregor by TKO/KO (-180) at Bovada

McGregor (22-4) hasn’t been active in the cage the last few years, but he’s still dangerous.

He dominated Donald Cerrone last January, winning by first-round TKO (0:40). Since 2016, McGregor is 3-2 in the UFC with his losses coming against Khabib Nurmagomedov and Nate Diaz.

Poirier (26-6-0-1) is 6-1-0-1 since 2017 and he won his lone fight in 2020 against Dan Hooker (Decision). His only loss in the last few years was against Nurmagomedov (2019), as he was tapped out.

On paper, these two have very similar statistics:

Stylistically, this is a tough fight for Poirier, though. He loves to put pressure on his opponents with his boxing, but McGregor has excellent movement and is a deadly counter-striker.

When these two fought in 2014, McGregor won by TKO in the first round. While Poirier might be able to hang in this fight a bit longer, McGregor is going to land a knockout shot within five rounds.

Frevola vs. Azaitar Picks

Best Bet: Azaitar by TKO/KO (+150) at Intertops

Ottman Azaitar (13-0) is undefeated and out to a 2-0 start to begin his UFC career.

Azaitar knocked out Teemu Packalen (2019) and Khama Worthy (2020). Azaitar is a finisher. He has 10 wins by TKO/KO and two by submission. He has knocked out his last five opponents.

Matt Frevola (8-1-1) is 2-1-1 in the UFC and has won his last two fights by decision. Those wins came against Jalin Turner and Luis Pena, but he’s in trouble here unless he keeps this fight on the mat.

Azaitar hasn’t been taken down yet and he averages 8.43 SLpM. He doesn’t lack with his striking defense either, as he has 67% striking defense and only averages 1.76 SApM.

Frevola averages 3.30 takedowns per 15 minutes and he has had four takedowns in each of his last two fights. With that being said, Azaitar could knock him out before he has a chance to land a TD.

Since we’re getting plus money on a TKO/KO finish, we’re jumping on Azaitar on the main card.

Rountree vs. Prachnio Picks

Best Bet: Rountree by TKO/KO (-180) at Bovada

This bet feels like a gift, but nothing is ever guaranteed in the UFC.

Khalil Rountree (8-4-0-1) is only 4-4-0-1 in the UFC and he needs a win badly. He didn’t fight in 2020 and he has been knocked out in two of his last three fights (Johnny Walker and Ion Cutelaba).

Rountree has power, though. He has won five fights by TKO/KO.

Marcin Prachnio (13-5) is 0-3 since joining the UFC in 2018. He has been knocked out in every fight. The three losses came against Sam Alvey, Magomed Ankalaev and Mike Rodriguez.

Prachnio has won ten career fights by knockout, but this is likely going to end badly for him.

Rountree will have a 2” reach advantage, but more importantly, better striking defense. Rountree averages 2.85 SApM whereas Prachnio averages 4.38 SApM.

There’s just no reason to believe Prachnio can bounce back against a powerful striker.

If you’re looking for a massive payout at UFC 257, you can parlay these three picks together.

A UFC 257 parlay with these three method of victory prop bets would pay more than 5/1 odds.

UFC 257 Betting Lines

Here are the UFC 257 odds for every single fight on the card this weekend.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.


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