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UFC 249 Odds: Ferguson vs. Gaethje Predictions

Tony Ferguson(25-3) @ Justin Gaethje(21-2)

  • Where: VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena. Jacksonville, Florida
  • When: May 9, 2020 3:00 pm EST
  • Moneyline: Tony Ferguson (-180) vs. Justin Gaethje (+150)

The UFC will be back this Saturday with the promotion’s first event since March 14th.

UFC 249 will take place at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida. Due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, the fights will be fought behind closed doors with no fans.

Dana White has put together a great fight card with two title fights.

I’m just happy we’re going to have some fights to watch this weekend. The atmosphere will be tough to get used to with no fans, but I’m sure the UFC will put on the best show they possibly can.

Bet on UFC 249 at Bovada and get up to a $250 cash bonus!

Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje Picks

UFC 249 Ferguson vs Gaethje PicksTony Ferguson (25-3) will fight Justin Gaethje (21-2) for the Interim Lightweight Championship, as the current champion, Khabib Nurmagomedov is unable to leave Russia right now.

El Cucuy is 15-1 in the UFC and he hasn’t lost since 2012 (Michael Johnson). He’s on a 12-fight winning streak with wins against Edson Barboza, Rafael dos Anjos, Kevin Lee and Donald Cerrone.

Since 2017, Ferguson has defeated Lee (Sub), Anthony Pettis (TKO) and Cerrone (TKO).

Gaethje is 4-2 since joining the UFC in 2017. He lost to Eddie Alvarez (KO) and Dustin Poirier (TKO).

Since those two back-to-back losses, Gaethje is on a three-fight win streak. He has picked up wins against James Vick (KO), Barboza (KO) and Cerrone (TKO). All three wins were in the first round.

Both of these guys are finishers. Ferguson has 20 stoppage wins (12 TKO/KO + 8 Subs) and Gaethje has 19 stoppage wins (18 TKO/KO + 1 Sub). This fight is going to end by stoppage as well.

These two fighters are both listed at 5’11’’, but Ferguson has a 6’’ reach advantage (76’’ vs. 70’’).

Gaethje averages 8.57 SLpM (55% Accuracy), but he has poor striking defense (54%) and absorbs 9.67 SApM. Ferguson averages 5.81 SLpM (45% Accuracy) and 3.75 SApM (63% Defense).

Could Gaethje win this fight? Absolutely. He has incredible power, but he likes to be able to set the pace and back his opponents up, but that’s going to be tough to do against Ferguson.

Ferguson is just as aggressive and he has the best cardio in the division. As long as he doesn’t get caught with an early haymaker, Ferguson will have an edge as the fight progresses.

My money is on Gaethje gassing by the third round. Ferguson will win by stoppage in R3/R4, but I’m not interested in the method of victory market because he could win by TKO/KO or submission.

Henry Cejudo vs. Dominick Cruz Picks

Henry Cejudo (15-2) will look to defend the Bantamweight Championship against Dominick Cruz (22-2) at UFC 249, but a growing number of fans aren’t happy Cruz got the title shot.

Cruz hasn’t fought since losing to Cody Garbrandt in December 2016. There’s really no way to even try predicting how Cruz will look in his first fight in years after battling injuries.

Prior to the loss, Cruz was 5-0 in the UFC with wins over Urijah Faber (2x) and T.J. Dillashaw. Five of Cruz’s six UFC fights went the distance and all five of those fights were five rounds.

Cejudo is 9-2 in the UFC with his losses coming against Demetrious Johnson (TKO) and Joseph Benavidez (SD), but those were both in 2016 and he has improved a lot since then.

Since those two losses, Cejudo is on a five-fight win streak. His last two victories both came via TKO against Dillashaw and Marlon Moraes. Cejudo is well-known for being an Olympic gold medalist wrestler, but his striking has also become lethal, which makes him extremely tough to beat.

Cruz has a 4’’ height (5’8’’ vs. 5’4’’) and reach (68’’ vs. 64’’) advantage. He also has the edge in striking defense (74% vs. 65%), but Cejudo has the edge in striking (3.82 SLpM vs. 3.53 SLpM).

Both fighters like to work in takedowns. Cruz averages 3.17 TDs per 15 minutes (Cejudo 2.16), but Cejudo has the better takedown defense (90% vs. 83%). Neither fighter is a threat to tapout the opponent, but the takedown battle could be important if this fight goes the distance.

The money line odds on Cejudo (-220) are a bit higher than I typically like to bet on in the UFC, but Cejudo should easily defeat Cruz. I think we’re getting a good price here because a lot of the public is betting Cruz based on what he used to be, but that’s a risky bet when he hasn’t fought in years.

UFC 249 Betting Lines for the Entire Card

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.

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