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UFC 246 Prop Betting Guide: McGregor vs. Cerrone Picks

Conor McGregor(21-4) @ Donald Cerrone(36-13-0-1)

  • Where: T-Mobile Arena. Paradise, Nevada
  • When: January 18, 2020 10:00 pm EST
  • Moneyline: McGregor (-325) vs. Cerrone (+250)
  • Over / Under: Over 1.5 Rounds (-140) vs. Under 1.5 Rounds (+100)

UFC 246 Main Event Prop BetsUFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy is this Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada.

The fight everyone is interested in is Conor McGregor vs. Donald Cerrone. McGregor (-325 Odds) is a huge favorite in the main event against Cerrone (+250 Odds) at the Bovada Sportsbook.

This is an important fight for the UFC, as they need their money machine to get a win and stay relevant.

McGregor hasn’t fought since losing to Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 229 in October 2018, but he continually made headlines in 2019 for all of the wrong reasons, which I’m sure you’ve read about throughout 2019.

The UFC needs their superstar to get a win, which could set-up a rematch against the Russian.

UFC 229 set a record for PPV buys (2,400,000). The top four UFC events in terms of PPV buys have all been events that McGregor has headlined. They need the Irishman more than he needs the UFC.

McGregor’s motivation has been questioned consistently leading up to this fight.

I’m of the belief that McGregor wants to try and go out on top of the UFC. He’s certainly not going to be motivated by money, as he had made a ton of money boxing Floyd Mayweather.

McGregor also has made a killing selling his Proper No. Twelve Irish Whiskey.

Cerrone turns 37-years-old in a little over two months. Since joining the UFC in 2011, Cerrone has a 23-10 record (Average of 3.7 fights per year), but his career appears to be winding down.

I’m glad the fan favorite was chosen to fight McGregor, as Cerrone will get a nice payday, which he deserves after consistently being ready to fight anyone, anywhere, for nearly a decade.

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Conor McGregor vs. Donald Cerrone Fight Preview – UFC 246 Stats

Here’s how these two fighters stack up against each other:

Both fighters are proficient strikers. McGregor averages 5.27 SLpM (48% accuracy) and 4.43 SApM (55% defense), while Cerrone averages 4.34 SLpM (46% accuracy) and 4.23 SApM (53% defense).

McGregor relies on his hands to get the job done, while Cerrone utilizes more kicks. In fact, he has six wins by knockout from his deadly head kick that he can get off extremely quickly.

I give the edge in striking to McGregor and he also has more power in his hands than Cerrone.

Cerrone is the better grappler and he has a way stronger submission game. We’ve also seen the Irishman struggle on the mat throughout his career. All four of his losses are by submission.

If I’m Cowboy, I’m doing everything in my power to take the fight to the mat to get a victory.

However, Cerrone said this week that “Getting on the ground would be fun, but I’d rather just stay [upright].” That’s not a solid game plan to defeat McGregor.

Cerrone has also lost his last two fights by TKO/KO against Tony Ferguson (R2) and Justin Gaethje (R1). Why he wants to stand and bang with a known knockout artist makes little sense to me.

Remaining upright will definitely help with ratings, but Cerrone is likely to get knocked out.

With that being said, I want to get into my UFC 246 prop bets for McGregor vs. Cerrone

McGregor vs. Cerrone Prop Bets – Method of Victory and Round Betting

So, Cerrone wants to stand and bang with McGregor to knock him out? With that being the case, my money is on the Irishman finishing this fight inside the distance (ITD) at -250 odds.

In Cowboy’s last two losses he was outstruck 104-68 against Ferguson and 40-17 against Gaethje.

He looked really bad in his last fight against Gaethje. Not only did he fail to get any offense going in the fight, but he buckled after the first big shot by Gaethje, which isn’t a good sign.

Cerrone is an aging veteran and his chin isn’t nearly as strong as it was in his prime.

These two are fighting at welterweight (170 Lbs.) instead of lightweight (155 Lbs.). The extra weight on both fighters will ensure that this fight doesn’t end up going the distance.

McGregor has very little stamina, although he has improved in that area. However, the longer this fight lasts, the more likely it is Cerrone will dig deep and pull off a surprising upset.

My prediction is McGregor ends this fight in the second or third round.

The majority of people are betting on McGregor to finish Cerrone in the first round (+180), but I don’t see that happening. I recommend betting on him winning in round 2 and round 3.

If he wins in either round we’ll pocket some nice profit, although ideally he wins in the third round.

McGregor has 7 UFC fights since 2015 and only one of those fights ended in round 1. He knocked out Jose Aldo in 13 seconds, but every other fight of his in recent years has gone more than a round.

Cerrone was knocked out in the opening round of his last fight, but I expect McGregor to take it a bit slower than usual, as he has only been in the cage once in the last few years.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.

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