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U.S. Open Women’s Bracket Odds And In-Tournament Betting Picks

World(38 wins) @ United States(91 wins)

  • Where: Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. New York, NY
  • When: September 10, 2017 12:00 pm EST
  • Moneyline: G. Muguruza (+400), Ka. Pliskova (+650), E. Svitolina (+1000), J. Konta (+1000), S. Halep (+1000), M. Keys (+1200), M. Sharapova (+1600), V. Williams (+1800), C. Wozniacki (+2000), A. Kerber (+2000), J. Ostapenko (+2000)

Imagine a Super Bowl betting-board favorite without a past playoff appearance on their record. Or the shortest futures odds for winning The Masters going to a kid who has missed four cuts in a row.

Sounds crazy, right? Yet that is the scenario posed by bookies as the 2017 U.S. Open women’s singles tournament prepares for the early rounds at Flushing Meadows.

Garbine Muguruza, who has failed to get out of the 2nd round in a quartet of tries, is favored at (+400) futures odds to win the championship. The futures board runner-up, Katrina Pliskova, reached the U.S. Open final last season, and Jelena Ostapenko is competing at 20/1 odds after winning the 2017 French Open.

Not to give the impression that Muguruza’s status is completely unfounded. She did win Wimbledon in 2017. That helps the resume quite a bit.

Here’s a look at the hottest contenders coming into this week, followed by MSB’s recommendation for outright-winner…and exactly when during the tournament to place the wager.

Favorites Odds Analysis for the 2017 U.S. Open

Muguruza (+400 as of Monday morning) is the favorite based on her recent form, with several excellent match victories over established stars following a dominant win at Wimbledon. But she has never fared well on the hard surface in New York.

“Moogoo” will likely be paired against Magdelena Rybarikova in her quarter, a match she should easily win given that Rybarikova is a soft-ball accuracy player better suited to grass or clay. But the Slovenian may, by losing to Muguruza early-on, ironically have an impact that could lead to a value wager.

Defending champ Angelique Kerber (+2000) has had the most disappointing season imaginable. Kerber is seeded #6 at Flushing Meadows on reputation alone, as she has not won a tournament in 2016. Some experts even think her first round pairing with Naomi Osaka will be too much to handle.

Elina Svitolina (+1000) is in a similar situation as Moogoo, having won five titles on the year but still failing and flailing at Grand Slams. Is there an athlete in the women’s singles field who is rounding into solid form _and_ who has a history of success in Slams, at least recently?

Katrina Pliskova (+650) has not had a wild streak of success as of late, but she’s been consistent, and focused on the U.S. Open. Pliskova lost early at Wimbledon, but the different surfaces and conditions make that almost a moot point. The Czech is ranked World #1 despite a lack of splashy titles in 2017, and beat Venus and Serena Williams in matches at the Billie Jean center last year.

That makes Pliskova a value bet at 6/1 odds. But wait…don’t pull the trigger right away.

Timing is everything

Click here to wager on Katrina Pliskova to win the 2017 U.S. Open at Bovada Sportsbook.

Remember, all money lines must add up to a perfect ratio, just as all team and individual records average out to .500. Books are spending futures “odds chips” on favorites like Muguruza and Simona Halep (+1000), who are each paired in difficult matches in the early going. Halep must face veteran Maria Sharapova this week.

The smartest play is to wait, and gamble that the favorites will win both matches impressively. At that point, outright-winner odds for both players will tend to get shorter, driving other players’ odds down the board.

And that’s when to pull the trigger on Pliskova. The Czech doesn’t have a lot of stiff competition in her draw – the toughest opponents she could see early on are Shuai Zhang, Barbora Strycova, or Coco Vandewehge…not household names.

That means Pliskova will not be wowing bookies into chopping her odds down to size as much as the other stars who advance. But she will be advancing all the same. So long as the World #1 does not suffer injury or undue stress in the early rounds, a futures wager is almost like betting on two matches – since the quarterfinal round could be a breeze and is a likely victory.

Fun isn’t everything

The traditional, fun style of futures wager is to “adopt” a team or athlete at the beginning of the tournament and ride with them all the way. But at some point, it’s more fun to make money, regardless of how.

Wait a round or three and post a two-unit bet on Katrina Pliskova to win the U.S. Open. That’s the best value – and should still be a lot of fun as the last Slam of the year heats up the Big Apple.

Kurt BoyerThis article was written by Kurt Boyer

A freelance sportswriter from Missouri, Kurt has covered court, gridiron, rink and ring for 10+ years. He muses about High School football on social media as The Gridiron Geek.

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