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TNF: Titans vs. Jaguars Week 3 Money Line Pick

Tennessee Titans(1-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars(0-2)

  • Where: TIAA Bank Field. Jacksonville, FL
  • When: September 19, 2019 8:15 pm EST
  • Spread: Titans -1.5 (-110) vs. Jaguars +1.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Titans -125 vs. Jaguars +105
  • Over / Under: Over 40 (-110) vs. Under 40 (-110)

To kick-off week 3, the Jacksonville Jaguars host the Tennessee Titans on Thursday Night Football at TIAA Bank Field. This is a pivotal game for these two AFC South rivals.

The Jaguars 0-2 (1-1 ATS) need a win. They almost upset the Texans on Sunday, but failed to convert a 2-point conversion after a late TD brought them within a point. They lost the game 13-12.

What happened to the Titans 1-1 (1-1 ATS)? They dominated the Browns in week 1, but lost to the Colts (19-17) on Sunday. Marcus Mariota struggled and until he improves, the Titans won’t contend.

Titans at Jaguars Betting Lines for Thursday Night Football

The point spread has opened up at -1.5 in favor of the Titans on the road. About 60% of the bets up to this point (Monday afternoon) have been on the Jaguars to cover ATS.

I recommend betting on the Jaguars money line (+105) instead of the point spread.

This game has the lowest over/under in week 3 at just 40 points. The last three H2H games suggest we’ll be in line for a snoozefest on TNF and I lean to under 40 points in this one.

Why the Jaguars ML Is the Best Bet for TNF Week 3

Jaguars Week 3 Betting 2019Gardner Minshew completed 23/33 passes for 213 yards and 1 TD against Houston. He has come in and played well after Nick Foles was injured in week 1, but that’s not translating to points.

Jacksonville were held to 12 points on Sunday. The defense played great and held the Texans to just 13 points, but that’s still a loss. It’s tough to win football games when you only score 12 points.

Leonard Fournette was being hyped to have a breakout season, but that hasn’t happened. He had his first career fumble in week 1 and he only gained 47 yards on 15 carries (3.1 Avg.) in week 2.

Minshew (6 carries for 56 rushing yards) outgained Fournette against the Texans.

Fournette needs to have a big game on TNF for the Jags to pick up their first win. The Titans have allowed 134.5 RYPG (26th) compared to just 182.5 PYPG (2nd).

The Titans defense has been great against the pass to start the season. They already have 4 INTs and 8 sacks through two weeks. If the Jags are forced to pass, the Titans will get pressure.

Minshew was sacked 4 times for 35 yards last week. Getting sacked kills drives, which the Jaguars can’t afford with a rookie QB. The best way to build his confidence is with a good run game.

WRs Chris Conley and DJ Chark have quickly build up chemistry with Minshew. They combined to haul in 11 catches for 128 yards and 1 TD last week. Fournette also had 4 catches for 40 yards.

Titans Week 3 Betting 2019In the opening week, the Titans capitalized on turnovers by the Browns. They forced two turnovers against the Colts, but the team struggled to move the football downfield.

This has been a problem with Marcus Mariota throughout his career. The Titans like to throw short passes and try to make guys miss, but more often than not, the strategy is unsuccessful.

Mariota completed 19/28 passes for 154 yards and 1 TD. He still hasn’t thrown an INT this season, but the Titans rank 27th in passing yards (167.5 PYPG), which isn’t going to get it done.

Derrick Henry has started the season playing well. He has 165 rushing yards and 2 TDs through the first two weeks. He has hauled in 3 receptions for 87 yards and 1 TD as well.

The Titans WRs aren’t getting it done, though. It’s partly due to Mariota, but it’s not completely his fault. Corey Davis was expected to breakout this season, but he has 3 catches on 8 targets.

Jacksonville’s defense was lit up by the Chiefs, but they held Deshaun Watson to 159 yards. Mariota isn’t going to have success against this secondary and I expect another poor outing from him.

The Titans have won the last four H2H games, but I’ll take the home team. The Jaguars defense will be able to shutdown the Titans and I’m counting on the Jags run game to finally get going.

This will likely be a boring game to watch on primetime, as offense will be limited. However, the Jags will win. They can’t start the season 0-3 if they want any chance in the wide open AFC South.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.

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