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Texans vs. Patriots Betting Lines

What: AFC Divisional Playoff Round
When: 4:30pm ET. Sunday, January 13, 2013
Where: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts

The New England Patriots host the Houston Texans in the 2nd AFC divisional matchup this Sunday. The Texans are fresh off their home win against the Bengals (19-13) in the wild card round, but they’ll need to play a lot better to beat NE.

Best Betting Lines for Texans vs. Patriots

The Patriots are huge favorites and the point spread is still going up. The Texans vs. Patriots betting lines opened with New England favored by -9 points, and they’re now -9.5. My pick is for the Patriots -9.5 (-105) at BetOnline.com.

The HOU vs. NE over/under opened at 48 points and it’s now down to 48.5 – 49 points. With the New England offense, who knows how far the public will bet the over? If you’re looking to bet the under, I’d wait a bit and see if it continues it’s upward trend. It’s unlikely to go down from here, but it might go up another 1/2 – 1 point. If you like the over, I’d recommend getting your bet in right away. If so, make that wager at BetOnline where the O/U is still 48.5.

US Friendly
US Friendly
+9.5 (-115)
-9.5 (-105)
+9.5 (-110)
-9.5 (-110)
o48.5 (-110) / u48.5 (-110)
o49 (-110) / u49 (-110)

HOU vs. NE Stats Pack

Patriots vs. Texans Match-Up & Betting Analysis

There’s no surprise that the Patriots are huge favorites in this game and it may even hit -10 points before kick-off. The Patriots are the best offensive team in the NFL. They average 291.4 PYPG (4th) and 136.5 RYPG (7th) on offense and all of their weapons are healthy. More importantly, they’re the best scoring team in the NFL, and this has pushed the over/under up to the 48.5 – 49 range.

Gronkowski, Hernandez, Lloyd and Welker were all limited today at practice, but they should all be ready to go on Sunday. With the two TE’s in the line-up Tom Brady will be unstoppable. NE is also a solid rushing team this year with Ridley leading the way.

Last week Arian Foster rushed the football 32 times for 140 rushing yards and 1 TD. It was the only TD the Texans scored on Cincy in the game. Graham was 4/4 on FG’s including a 48-yd boot, but if Houston wants to stand a chance they need TD’s against NE.

Matt Schaub was 29/38 for 262 passing yards and 1 INT. Schaub was unable to find the deep ball at all and Andre Johnson was held to just 62 yards on 4 catches. Owen Daniels had a big game though and picked up 9 receptions for 91 yards.

Houston gives up 225.8 PYPG (16th) on average and I don’t think Dalton took advantage of that. Tom Brady will expose this defense in the passing game and I feel that it’s a huge mismatch that Houston will be unable to overcome.

Breakout Performers for HOU vs. NE

Both TE’s dealt with injuries this season. Gronks played 11 games and he still led the team in TD receptions with 11. Gronkowski picked up 55 catches for 790 yards, which was 3rd best on NE. Hernandez was 4th on the team with 51 catches for 483 yards and 5 TD’s.

Welker and Lloyd both require attention, and the TE’s are going to be mismatches down field. With all of these guys healthy, Houston is going to have a problem trying to stop Brady at all.

Johnson was quiet last week, but Daniels had a breakout performance, as mentioned above. Both Daniels and Johnson will need to put up big numbers against the Patriots defense that allowed 271.4 PYPG (29th) on average during the regular season.

New England actually ranks a respectable 9th against the run (101.9 RYPG). Foster will be able to get his yards against NE, but I feel that Schaub, Johnson and Daniels all need to be on the same page in order to be able to try and keep up with Brady.

Jones has put up good numbers for a rookie. He’s 2nd on the team with 6 sacks (Behind Ninkovich who has 8) and he forced three fumbles on the year. Jones is fast and if he can get pressure on Schaub I think he’ll be able to force Schaub into some mistakes.

Another young player with a huge future (and present) is J.J. Watt. He had 1 sack last weekend and he along with the rest of the Texans O-line needs to have a good game. Houston has to pressure Brady and show him a lot of blitzes because with time Brady will kill them.

Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots Picks

I hate to be betting on all favorites this weekend, but it’s hard to go against the Patriots. NE dominated HOU in week 14 (42-14) and the game was in Foxborough. Houston’s defense hasn’t improved enough to be able to shut down the Pats offense.

Another thing that’s important is that the Patriots rarely turn the football over and they have the best TO margin. To cover this big spread NE simply has to utilize the TE’s, win the TO battle and pressure Schaub, which I think they’ll do at home.

The Texans vs. Patriots betting lines have been favoring the Pats all week. We could still see them go to -10 before game time, so keep an eye out for value on this one. The lines will bounce around a bit, and some opportunities should present themselves.
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ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.

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