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Texans vs. Bears Over/Under

Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears
When: 8:30pm EST. Sunday, November 11, 2012
Where: Soldier Field. Chicago, Illinois

I’m really liking the over in the Houston Texans 7-1 (4-3-1 OU) vs. Chicago Bears 7-1 (5-3 OU) on Sunday night. The game total opened up at 43.5 points, but it has been bet down all the way to 39.5. Everyone is expecting a highly defensive game, which is to be expected between these teams. However, I think a lot of handicappers are forgetting how good these offenses are. Now down to 39.5, I think the over is giving us a lot of value.

Houston vs. Chicago Over/Under Odds: Week 10 SNF

US Friendly
US Friendly
+1 (-105)
-1 (-115)
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-110)
o39.5 (-110) / u39.5 (-110)
o39.5 (-110) / u39.5 (-110)

As mentioned above, I’m jumping on the over right now, taking o39.5 (-110) at BetOnline.com. When Texans vs. Bears over/under opened at 43.5 I thought it was too high, but I didn’t think it would drop this low. As I can’t see the over/under dropping any more than it has already, I’m pulling the trigger right now. 39.5 vs. 40 is like the difference between $9.99 and $10, there is a mental bump that happens in a persons brain. At 39.5, I think a lot of bettors will see that value and bet it back over 40 before game time.

Will the Bears vs. Texans Go Over the Total?

Although these are great defensive teams, both teams can score. The Texans and Bears rank #2 and #3 in PPG respectively (29.6 & 29.5 PPG). Although these defenses rarely make big mistakes, they don’t have to make mistakes to get beaten now & then. Against these offenses, both defenses will be challenged and forced to play nearly perfect football.

Speaking of defenses, the Chicago Bears lead the NFL with 8 defensive scores (7 pick-6’s). This is another reason I like the Bears to win, and for the over to win as well. The Bears combo of Cutler, Marshall, and Forte is deadly. Add to that a defense that can also score and you get a team that has scored 41-51 points three times in their first 8 games. They’ve also scored 23+ in 6 of their 8 games. This isn’t to say Chicago is going to put up 23+ every week, because they’ve had a couple of low scoring games as well. However, it shows us the upside potential of this teams ability to score, and the different ways they can beat you.

So far this season the Bears have an O/U record of 5-3, compared to the Texans O/U record of 4-3-1. The Bears defense has easily been the best in the NFL this year, and they’ve been making huge play after huge play. With that said, this Texans offense is very good.

Chicago’s defense ranks 2nd in points against (15 PPG), 16th against the pass (230.9 PYPG) and 6th against the run (88 RYPG). The Texans defense rank 4th in points allowed (17.1 PPG), 4th against the pass (203.8 PYPG) and 2nd against the run (81.9 RYPG).

Both defenses are amongst the best in the NFL, but everyone is on the under in this game. These two offenses can explode at anytime, and each of them should get their breaks. With such a low total, if either of the defenses or special team units is able to score a TD it should easily sail over.

This year the Bears offense has been averaging 29.5 PPG (3rd) and the Texans offense has averaged 29.6 PPG (2nd). Both teams should be able to get their running attacks going, as the Texans rank #8 rushing (138 RYPG), and the Bears rank #11 (128.5 RYPG). Forte and Foster will make plays, and both passing games should as well.

With both teams likely to move the football with their run games, I like the chances of the passing game opening up. We should see some play action passes deep, and with Andre Johnson and Brandon Marshall on the field a long TD isn’t out of the question.

Johnson put up 118 receiving yards last weekend and Marshall put up 122 receiving yards. Forte and Foster should also be able to put up big numbers once the field opens up due to the pass. Arian Foster leads the NFL with 10 rushing TD’s, and the Marshall/Forte combo account for 10 TD’s as well. These are all big playmakers, something I really like when we have a low over/under like this.

Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears O/U Pick

Bet Over 39.5 (-110) at BetOnline

With a total this low and the public hammering the under, I’m loving the over. There is no room for error with a total this low, and there is upside potential here. A couple of big plays, a couple of mistakes, and the over will easily take this bet. I expect 1 defensive or special teams TD in this game and I think we’ll see a total of 43+.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.

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