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Super Bowl 47 Over/Under

The 2013 Super Bowl over/under opened up at O/U 49 points last week. Currently about 60% of the action has come in on the over, however, the game total has dropped a full 2 points at most mobile sportsbooks – although Bovada is still hanging 47.5 points.

Will Super Bowl 47 Go Over or Under the Total?

My Pick: Under 47.5 (-110) at the Bovada Sportsbook

We’ve seen some reverse line movement in Super Bowl 47 this past week. With 60% of the bettors on the over you’d expect the over/under to either stay the same or move up slightly, but it’s actually dropped.

The Ravens over/under record is 1-2 in the 2012-13 NFL playoffs, and the 49ers over/under record is 2-0. Baltimore is now healthy on defense and they’re playing like the unit we’re accustomed to. The Ravens defense has allowed only 43 pts (14.3 PPG) in the playoffs. Overall, the team is giving up just 19 PPG.

The Baltimore Ravens don’t have much experience against dual-threat QB’s like Colin Kaepernick. Baltimore played one read-option QB this year (Redskins) and they lost that game 31-28 while allowing 179 rushing yards. However, they did hold RGIII to 34 yards on 7 carries.

I thought the Falcons did a good job game planning against Kaepernick. Kaepernick only had 21 yards on 2 carries, as the Falcons didn’t let him find the sidelines, but that did leave the middle open for Frank Gore and he ran for 90 yards plus 2 TD’s.

Baltimore utilizes a tight 3-4 scheme, which should help them contain Kaepernick in Super Bowl XLVII. Suggs and Upshaw need to ensure Kaepernick can’t beat them wide, while the middle of the field will need to be covered by Lewis and Ellerbe.

During the regular season the 49ers defense allowed 5.65 yards per pass attempt. In the playoffs the 49ers have allowed 7.95 yards per pass attempt. San Francisco allowed far too many 20+ yard passes against the Packers and Falcons, but it hasn’t cost them yet.

Joe Flacco is averaging 8.90 pass yards per attempt in the playoffs and he has been airing it out more than usual. Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones all have receptions of 50+ yards in the playoffs, so the 49ers secondary is going to be busy.

Neither team is going to want to make an early mistake on offense. With Frank Gore and Ray Rice as the featured RB’s in this game, I expect them both to have 20+ carries, which will eat time off the clock and make the under of 47.5 points a lot more manageable.

After watching the Niners last week, I expect them to have Kaepernick fake the outside run and handoff inside to Gore. Lewis and Ellerbe lead the Ravens in total tackles in the playoffs and they’ll make life difficult for Gore in the middle of the field.

Jerome Boger is the referee in the 2013 Super Bowl, but he won’t have his normal crew. Since his normal crew won’t be officiating with him you can’t put much weight into Boger’s trends this season, but I wanted to point one statistic out.

This season, in NFL games officiated by Boger the average game total has been 41.3 points only. The 41.3 PPG was the 2nd lowest total in the NFL by an officiating crew, and was over 4 points lower than the league average in points per game this season.

2013 Super Bowl Over/Under Prediction

The Super Bowl 47 over/under is dropping, and I recommend betting the under 47.5 points at the Bovada Sportsbook. It’s unlikely that the total is going to move up before kick-off, and the extra ½ point could turn a push elsewhere into a win at Bovada.

San Francisco has a star-studded defense that had six Pro Bowl selections. They’ve faltered early in the playoffs, but they know that they can’t afford to give up too many points to Baltimore, as the Ravens defense is playing lights-out (they held Brady to only 1 TD).

Baltimore’s defense has rallied around Ray Lewis in his last hurrah before retirement. After watching Baltimore shut down the Pats in the AFC Conference Championship I expect them to have a game plan to keep Kaepernick and the 49ers in check.

Related Articles:

2013 Super Bowl Betting Lines
Super Bowl Betting Apps

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.

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