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Steelers vs. Giants Over/Under

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Giants
When: 4:25pm EST. Sunday, November 4, 2012
Where: MetLife Stadium. East Rutherford, New Jersey

The New York Giants 6-2 (4-4 ATS) are in good shape to win the NFC East, and this week they host the Pittsburgh Steelers 4-3 (3-4 ATS). This will be a tough game for the Giants, as the Steelers are desperate to gain ground on the Ravens in the AFC North.

I think the Steelers vs. Giants over/under is one of the more interesting bets for week 9. On the surface it looks like a battle between the Giants offense and Steelers defense, but that’s just the beginning. Below are the latest o/u odds, and some analysis to help us figure out which side to bet.

Steelers vs. Giants Over/Under Odds: Week 9, 11/4/2012

The Steelers vs Giants over/under opened at 46 points, but it has been bet to 48 points as I write this, Saturday at 7:00pm EST. I doubt we’ll see much movement on the total now, as it seems to have settled at 48 pts.

US Friendly
US Friendly
+3 (+100)
-3 (-120)
+3 (-105)
-3 (-115)
o48 (-110) / u48 (-110)
o48 (-110) / u48 (-110)

Pittsburgh vs. NYG O/U Betting Analysis

The NY Giants have faced some very high game totals this year, and they have an over/under record of 3-5 right now. Pittsburgh has an over/under record of 3-4, although most of their road games have gone over the total.

The Steelers were able to pick-up their 1st road win against the Bengals in week 7 and will look to make it two in a row on Sunday. Of course both teams want to win, but the Steelers have more on the line right now. Coming in one game behind the Ravens, the Steelers can’t afford to lose more ground in the AFC North. At 6-2, the Giants have some cushion between them and the Eagles, who sit in second place at 3-4. When motivation is higher for the better defensive team, I tend to take the under. The only problem is, this Giants team is rolling on offense, scoring 29.2 points per game this year.

The Giants have won their last 4 games, scoring 26-41 points in each of them. However, the two games that pique my interest are the week 6 and week 8 games. The Giants scored 26 against the 49ers in San Francisco, but they only gave up 3.

In week 8, the Giants won on the road in Dallas, scoring 29. That’s impressive considering Dallas has the 3rd-best passing defense in the NFL, giving up just 187.7 passing yards per game. Although Eli Manning was kept out of the end zone, the Giants kicked 5 field goals. Jason Paul-Pierre had a 28 yard pick-6, and RB Andre Brown has one rushing TD as well. How many teams with one offensive TD are going to score 29 points? Not many, and it speaks to the Giants ability to just get it done – one way or another.

* You May Not Have Known: Although the Giants defense is giving up yards, they rank 9th in the NFL in points per game. On the season, they’re giving up 20.1 points per game, compared to the 10th ranked Steelers who are giving up 20.6 points per game.

For week 9, the Giants are facing an equally tough pass defense against Pittsburgh. The Steelers defense rank #1 in passing yards per game (182.6), and 9th against the run (91.6 YPG). To make things tougher on the Giants, RB Ahmad Bradshaw may not be playing, listed as questionable as I write this article (has not practiced this week).

Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall is also likely to be sitting, listed as doubtful as of Saturday night.

In order to have a chance at beating the Giants, the Steelers need to play defense and keep the scoring to a minimum. The Steelers know they can’t keep up with the Giants offense, giving the defense extra motivation this week.

With a limited running game this week, the Giants will rely more heavily on Eli Manning. The Giants have the #6 passing offense (282.1 PYPG), but against the Steelers I expect Manning’s numbers to drop. This is a tough matchup for him.

One thing that scares me is the Giants secondary. They give up an average of 273.5 PYPG (26th) and Roethlisberger has been putting up decent numbers in recent weeks. His offense ranks #7 in passing yards per game (273.6 PYPG), and this is another one of those wild-cards that could ruin an under bet.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Giants Over/Under Pick

Bet Under 48 (-110) at BetOnline.com

At the end of the day neither team has a threatening running attack due to injuries, and that’ll put more pressure on the QB’s. I expect the Steelers defense to employ a lot of different schemes against the Giants offense to keep Eli guessing. I don’t think we’ll see a repeat of the Giants/Dallas game, where the Giants kick a bunch of field goals and scrape together a lot of points.

The NYG defense has been better than most people realize, ranking 9th in points allowed per game. With Rashard Mendenhall likely out, they can put more attention on Big Ben. I think the Giants will be held to no more than 24 points, and the Steelers will be held to 21. I’d bet the under 48 now because you’re not going to get a better line on the under tomorrow before kick-off.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.

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