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Steelers vs. Cowboys Week 10 Over/Under Odds

Who: Dallas Cowboys (7–1) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (4–4)

When: Sunday, November 13, 2016. 4:25 PM (EST)

Where: Heinz Field. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Over/Under: 50 at the Bovada Sportsbook

Two of the most storied franchises in NFL history square off Sunday afternoon for America’s Game of the Week. It’s the Dallas Cowboys at the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Cowboys are one of this season’s biggest surprises. After a 4–12 season in 2015/16, Dallas promised a healthy Tony Romo for 2016/17 and was expected to return to form. After Romo went out with a broken back in the preseason, many pundits had the Cowboys winning only 4 games this season.

And yet the Cowboys are tied for the best record in football through 9 weeks, on the backs of the top offensive line and two rookies – Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot – that are in the running not only for Offensive Rookie of the Year, but also for MVP. Prop bets for Dak and Zeke have the tailback at -250 for Offensive Rookie of the Year, and the QB at +200 at the Bovada Sportsbook.

The Steelers, on the other hand, have underperformed so far this season, and would need to go 7–1 over the remaining 8 games to meet their projected record of 11–5. Every year, the Steelers success seems to hinge on the health of their star quarterback, and this season is no exception.

Dallas Domination: Can the ‘Boys Keep It Up?

The 2016/17 NFL season has been flush with talented rookie QBs: In the first few weeks of the season, Carson Wentz, Trevor Siemian, and Dak Prescott took over the helms of top-notch teams and seriously over-performed. While Siemian and Wentz have proven themselves mortal with a handful of rookie mistakes between them, Dak has yet to show a chink in the armor.

After their Week 1 loss to the Giants, the Cowboys have scored 24 points or more in each of their next 7 wins. The question to ask for the over/under of the Cowboys–Steelers game is whether they can keep up this offensive production on the road. Last week they put up 35 on the road – against Cleveland. But in an afternoon game in front of a sea of Terrible Towels, will Dak start to crack under the pressure?

Pittsburgh’s Offense: How Healthy Is Big Ben?

Ben Roethlisberger seems to get injured annually, and yet every time to fight through injury and come back to the field much earlier than seems physically possible. The 2016/17 iteration is a torn meniscus, suffered during Pittsburgh’s Week 6 loss in Miami. Incredibly, with a Week 8 Bye, Ben missed only two games – coming back last week to play in the Steelers’ 21–14 loss to the division rival Ravens.

The Steelers offense did absolutely nothing for three quarters in that Ravens game, with all points coming in the 4th quarter and only 2 first downs earned before then. However, Big Ben did finally click in the fourth quarter, and looked sharp directing two lengthy touchdown drives to try and force overtime. The Cowboys secondary has already held the Giants’ Odelle Beckham Jr., the Bears’ Alshon Jeffrey, the Bengals’ A.J. Green, and the Packers’ Jordy Nelson to an average of 65 yards. Can Pittsburgh’s star wideout Antonio Brown fare better?

Why I’m Taking the Under on the Cowboys at the Steelers

In short, Dallas can run the ball. They’re number 1 in the league in rushing yards, while Pittsburgh is 25th in yards allowed on the ground. In addition to looking out of sync on offense, the Steelers committed 13 penalties last week in Baltimore. Coming back home, with another week for Ben to shake off the rust, there’s good reason to think that Pittsburgh will look sharp on offense against the Cowboys.

However, the most telling stat for this matchup is time of possession: Dallas is the best in the league at controlling the clock. Pittsburgh? 21st. Look for Dallas to hold onto the ball and chew up long minutes of clock with that top run game. If Pittsburgh’s D can’t get Dallas off the field, there’ll be no time for Big Ben to run up the score.

To gamble otherwise is to bet on Dallas turning the ball over, though Pittsburgh has forced just 5 TOs on the season. The smart money has Dallas continuing to roll in Pittsburgh in a low-scoring, old-school affair, fitting for this great rivalry between two storied franchises.

My prediction: 24–10, Dallas Cowboys on top of the Pittsburgh Steelers. I recommend that players take the under at 50 this week at the Bovada Sportsbook.

David HeinenThis article was written by David Heinen

David Heinen is a freelance psychology writer by day, inveterate NFL junkie by night. Born and raised on the Green Bay Packers, David is a die-hard Cheesehead, not to mention a cheese enthusiast in his spare time.

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