Washington Redskins vs. Minnesota Vikings Preview

When: Thursday, November 7th 2013 at 8:25pm ET
Where: MetroDome in Minneapolis, Minnesota
Watch: Live on NFL Network

The Washington Redskins 3-5 (3-5 ATS) needed OT to beat the Chargers last week, but it was an important win. The Redskins should have an easier time this week on the road this week against the Minnesota Vikings 1-7 (3-5 ATS) who have lost their last four games.

Latest Betting Lines in Vikings vs. Redskins

I’m surprised that the Redskins have opened up as such a small favorite this week. The Vikings were close to winning last week, but they were unable to hang on against the Cowboys. Washington is still in the NFC East race and they’ll be taking this game seriously.

Odds Courtesy of Bovada Sportsbook

• Point Spread: Redskins –3 (+105) vs. Vikings +3 (-125)

• Money Line: Redskins –140 vs. Vikings +120

• Game Total: Over 49 Points (-110) vs. Under 49 Points (-110)

Three Reasons Why the Redskins Will Win

Last season the Redskins started the season slowly, but they ended up making a run at the end of the regular season. After a tough win against the Chargers last week Washington will look to begin a winning streak and climb back into the AFC East division.

• RGIII has slowly been getting more comfortable and I expect him to have a good game. The Vikings concede 291.1 PYPG (29th) while the Redskins average 261.4 PYPG (12th) on offense. Look for RGIII to beat Minny with his feet and arm.

• Washington’s defense has caught nine interceptions and they should add to that total against Christian Ponder. Ponder is a turnover machine. He has already tossed six interceptions (3.8% of his passes are intercepted) including one last week.

• Pierre Garcon is going to be the main target early on. He caught 7 passes for 172 receiving yards last week and he seems to be on the same page as RGIII now. Alfred Morris will also be able to finish out the game on the ground once they’re up.

Washington is averaging 25.4 PPG (12th) offensively and they just put up 30 points last week. The problem has been consistency for this team, but if they can string a few games together they’ll be back in the division race with the Cowboys and Eagles.

How Can the Vikings Upset Washington in Week 10

It’s going to be a fairly simple game plan for the Vikings again this week. The Vikings will feed the rock to Adrian Peterson as much as they can. Last week he had 140 rushing yards and 1 TD on 25 carries. Expect him to reach 25+ carries against the Redskins this week.

Washington has given up 116.6 RYPG (22nd) and they haven’t had to face a great RB since week 1. In the opening week of the season the Redskins allowed McCoy to rush for 184 yards. I don’t think Peterson will match that total, but he’ll be good for 100+ rush yards.

Last week this type of game plan almost worked, but the defense wasn’t able to hold up for the full game against Dallas. Minnesota has struggled on defense the entire year. If they’re unable to shutdown to RGIII and Alfred Morris they won’t win this match-up.

WAS vs. MIN Week 10 Best Bets

• Bet on the Redskins –3 (+105) @ Bovada

This line opened at –2 points for the Redskins and has been bet up to –3 points. I expect the line to continue increasing, as almost all of the action (90%) has been on Washington to cover the point spread so far. Minnesota hasn’t shown the ability to win games.

When you have a defense that is playing horribly and an offense that has been extremely inconsistent it’s hard to bet on them. I’ve been disappointed with the Redskins defense, as they allow 31.6 PPG (31st), but the offense has been improving the last few weeks.

Washington is just 1-3 on the road with losses against the Packers, Cowboys and Broncos. Their lone road win was over the Raiders and they should make it 2 road wins after this Sunday. Washington has had a tough SOS early on and I expect a run from them.

The over/under is sitting at 49 points and I lean to the over, but it’s a little too high to bet because these two teams have been so unpredictable. I expect the total to exceed 50+ points though, as each of the Redskins last three games have had over 50 points.

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