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Redskins vs. Cowboys Over/Under

Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys
When: 4:15pm EST. Thanksgiving Day. Thursday, November 22, 2012
Where: Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas
TV: Fox

In the 2nd Thanksgiving Day matchup this Thursday, the Dallas Cowboys 5-5 (4-6 O/U) host the Washington Redskins 4-6 (5-5 O/U) at 4:15pm EST. The NFC East is very tight right now and both teams still have a chance to win the division.

The Cowboys have now won 2 games in a row after beating the Browns 23-20 in OT last week. Washington also won last week, beating the struggling Philadelphia Eagles 31-6, clearly showing that without Vick the Eagles are even worse. This match-up should be very close, and another classic Thanksgiving Day battle.

Current Redskins vs. Cowboys Over/Under Odds

BetOnline.com
US Friendly
JustBet.cx
US Friendly
Spread
Money
Spread
Money
Redskins
Cowboys
+3 (+100)
-3 (-120)
+155
-175
+3 (+105)
-3 (-125)
+155
-175
Over/Under
o48 (-110) / u48 (-110)
o48 (-110) / u48 (-110)

My Pick: Over 48 (-110) at BetOnline.com

Dallas opened as -6 point favorites, but they’ve been bet down to -3 already. I don’t like the point spread, as any of the value on the Redskins is now gone. Instead, I’m betting on the over/under despite the value on the over is almost gone as well.

The Redskins vs. Cowboys over/under opened at 46 points and was quickly bet up 2 points to O/U 48 (-110). I still think this game has the potential to go over 50+ points, so even at 48 we’re still getting a few points of value on the over.

Wash vs. Dallas Over/Under Betting Analysis

This is the 1st meeting between these two teams in 2012-13. The Cowboys have an over/under record of 2-2 at home, compared to the Redskins over/under record of 3-2 on the road. The main reason I like the over is because of the Redskins weak defense.

Washington ranks 25th in points allowed (25.4 PPG), 29th in passing yards allowed (289.2 PYPG) and 7th in rushing yards allowed (94.6 RYPG). The Cowboys will struggle running the football, but Tony Romo should finally have a breakout game this week.

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The Dallas Cowboys running game has been awful this year, ranking 29th in rushing yards (83.1 RYPG). However, they rank 7th in passing yards (284.3 PYPG) and they average a total of 21.1 PPG (20th). With the Redskins secondary struggling, Dallas should easily be able to outscore their season average.

I also think that the Redskins 2nd ranked rushing offense (165 RYPG) will be able to cause fits for the Cowboys rush defense that has struggled at times this season (106.6 RYPG – 13th). Alfred Morris and RGIII should combine for 125+ rushing yards on Thanksgiving, likely good for 1-2 TD’s.

On defense the Cowboys have limited opposing QB’s to an average of 211.4 PYPG (6th) and it’s unlikely that Griffin will be real effective passing the ball. However, the Redskins have leveraged their run game to average 25.7 PPG (10th), and RGIII has the ability to find the end zone with his feet or his arm. This gives us upside potential on the over.

The Washington defense has also helped make short fields for the offense. The Cowboys offense averages 2 giveaways per game (26th) while the Redskins defense forces 1.9 takeaways per game (7th). Look for the Redskins to recover a fumble or make an INT that’s returned for a TD, or at the very least gives the Redskins a very short field to work with. A big defensive play could result in the extra points we need to win the over.

Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys Best Bet

Bet Over 48 points (-110) at BetOnline.com

My prediction is that this game will go over the total fairly easily. Some Thanksgiving Day games have had low totals, but I think we’ll see 50+ points in this one.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.


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