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Raiders vs. Ravens Betting Lines

Oakland Raiders vs. Baltimore Ravens
When: 1:00pm EST. Sunday, November 11, 2012
Where: MT&T Bank Stadium. Baltimore, Maryland

The Oakland Raiders 3-5 (3-5 ATS) are on the road this week against the Baltimore Ravens 6-2 (3-5 ATS). This has the makings of a blowout, but with the way the Ravens have been struggling defensively this year no lead is safe for them anymore. Their 6-2 record looks nice on the surface, but their +23 net points is by far the lowest of any division leading team. Oh right, they’re also 4-0 at home.

Hmm, they’re also 22nd against the pass and 28th against the run, against the #6 passing game in the NFL (probably wouldn’t have guessed that right?). Too bad the Raiders have no running game this year (31st), otherwise we could have a real game here. The Raiders running game is in even more trouble this week, with Darren McFadden out with an injury.

Oakland Raiders vs. Baltimore Ravens Lines: Week 10

Baltimore opened as -6 point favorites, but that early value is gone now that they’re -7.5 on the point spread. Actually, Baltimore has bounced from -7.5 to -9 in the last day or two, and we could see more movement in the betting lines before game time. If the Ravens were playing slightly better defense lately, or if the Raiders passing game wasn’t so dangerous, this would be an easy call. But, giving up that extra 1/2 point could be just what we need for the Raiders to cover ATS. Or is it?

US Friendly
US Friendly
+7.5 (-110)
-7.5 (-110)
+7.5 (-110)
-7.5 (-110)
o46.5 (-110) / u46.5 (-110)
o47 (-110) / u47 (-110)

Will the Ravens Cover ATS at Home Against the Raiders?

This game could be a “trap” because it looks so easy on paper, but this is the NFL and anything can happen. Baltimore has gone a perfect 4-0 at home and they have a winning margin of +10.2 points when they play at the MT&T Bank Stadium.

Oakland has struggled on the road all season (1-3), losing by an average margin of 11.5 points. In their L2 road games they’ve played better, as they barely lost to the Falcons (23-20), and then they beat the Chiefs (26-16). But, it was the Chiefs.

Darren McFadden was injured in week 9, so Mike Goodson will take over the run duties. On limited playing time, Goodson has done well. He’s accrued 11 yards on just 17 carries, for a 6.5 YPC average. On one of those carries Woodson broke for 43 yards, but even without that run he’s 16/68, good for 4.25 YPC. He may not be Darren McFadden, but this could be a great opportunity for him to make a name for himself. Motivated players often spells trouble for opponents, and it’ll be interesting to see how he does on Sunday.

Ouch Update: Goodson is now listed as ‘out’ for Sunday as well. Next man up – Taiwan Jones. Jones has shown he can be an explosive player, but offensive coordinator Greg Knapp says Jones’ limited play is due to ball security issues.

Baltimore used to win games with defense, but this season they rank 22nd against the pass (246.8 PYPG), and even worse against the run (139.5 RYPG – 28th). Since the running game shouldn’t be a huge threat, the Ravens should be able to limit Palmer and his WR’s.

Offensively, the Ravens rank 11th in points scored (24.9 PPG), 15th in passing yards (237.8 PYPG) and 16th rushing (108.2 RYPG). Last week the Buccaneers ran the football for 278 yards against the Raiders, and Ray Rice could have a monster game in week 10.

At home, the Baltimore Ravens have put up some big offensive numbers, including an average of 32.2 PPG. Oakland has been giving up a total of 28.6 PPG this season (28th) and I expect the Ravens to put up 30+ points at home on Sunday. The problem is, this Raiders offense is tough to predict. In their last four games, they’ve scored 20 at Atlanta, 26 vs. Jacksonville), 26 at Kansas City, and 32 vs. Tampa Bay. Despite a mostly non-existent running game, the Raiders passing game has been effective in recent weeks. Can they cover the spread at +7.5?

Raiders vs. Ravens Week 10 Betting Picks

At the time I write this article (Saturday, 1:30am EST), JustBet and BetOnline have the same Raiders/Ravens point spread. Although we like JustBet, we do have a preference for BetOnline.

Baltimore Ravens: -7.5 (-110) @ BetOnline

Oakland Raiders: +7.5 (-110) at BetOnline

You can still bet on the Ravens at -7.5 right now at BetOnline.com, which is a reputable US mobile sportsbook. Baltimore has been winning at home by more than 10+ PPG and the Raiders haven’t been consistent on the road this season.

With McFadden out, I still think we’re getting value on this line. I preferred the Raiders vs. Ravens betting lines when the spread was -6 Baltimore, but that line opened when McFadden was still listed as questionable.

Raiders / Ravens Money Line

Best Ravens Money Line: -335 at JustBet.cx

Best Raiders Money Line: +285 at BetOnline.com

Although I think the Ravens will win this game SU, I don’t like -335 on their money line. The Ravens defense hasn’t been good enough to consider this game any kind of a lock, and the Raiders passing offense can be dangerous. In fact, if I wasn’t betting the Ravens point spread, I might wager on the Raiders money line of +285.

I think the loss of McFadden could mean less than many handicappers expect it to be. McFadden’s two best games this year came on two of the Raiders three wins. In those games he was able to open up the field for Palmer, and he was effective when he had the ball. However, in week 7 the Raiders beat Jacksonville on a poor performance by McFadden (19 carries for 53 yards, 2.8 yards/carry). In week 9 against the Buc’s, McFadden was out early with an injury. Palmer threw the ball 61 times, which is obviously too many, but they were still able to put up 32 points with just 10 rushing attempts.

If the Raiders give the ball to RB Jones 15-20+ times, and Palmer can eliminate the TO’s, the Raiders have a legitimate shot against this Ravens defense. So, the Raiders money line of +285 looks like a decent value to me.

Oakland vs. Baltimore Over/Under Odds

Best Oakland vs. Baltimore Over: o46.5 (-110) at BetOnline.com
Best Oakland vs. Baltimore Under: u47 (-110) at JustBet.cx

These offenses combine for an average of 46.3 PPG. The defenses combine for an average of 50.6 PPG. The Raiders offense has been finding the endzone more often in the last four weeks, and they have the potential to put up 24+ against this Ravens defense. I especially like the Raiders WR’s against the Ravens secondary, and that matchup could easily produce a few touchdowns. This game could actually come down to Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense. At times they can be very effective (31 points vs. Patriots and Cowboys), and other times they can stink it up (9 points vs. Chiefs, 13 points vs. Texans). The Texans are just tough, and I’m chalking up those 9 against the Chiefs as a fluke.

I think the Ravens should be good for at least 24 points as well. With the Raiders vs. Ravens over/under at 46.5 points (-110) at BetOnline, I think this is an easy over bet. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if this one goes into the 50-55 range.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.

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