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Patriots vs. Jets Betting Lines

New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
When: 8:20pm EST. Thanksgiving Day. Thursday, November 22, 2012
Where: MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey

The New England Patriots 7-3 (6-4 ATS) maintained their lead in the AFC East after demolishing the Colts 59-24 last week. NE is now on the road to take on their division rival New York Jets 4-6 (6-4 ATS) who currently sit in 2nd place in the division.

Betting Lines for Patriots / Jets

US Friendly
US Friendly
-7 (-110)
+7 (-110)
-7 (-110)
+7 (-110)
o48.5 (-110) / u48.5 (-110)
o48.5 (-110) / u48.5 (-110)

The New England Patriots opened up as -7 point favorites, and the spread has moved down and back up since then. The spread is back to Patriots -7 at the time I write this (Thursday morning at 1:00am EST). I’m betting on the Patriots -7 (-110) at BetOnline, but this is a tough one to predict. Part of what is making this a tough pick is the week 7 game these teams played in New England, where the Jets lost to a field goal in OT.

Will the Patriots Cover -7 ATS vs. the Jets?

If the Patriots defense was better, this would be an easy pick. If the Jets offense was better, this would also make it an easier pick. What makes it even tougher to predict is the oddball stats each of these teams have, creating a web of arguable angles. I could see the Patriots running away with this by 20 points, and I could see it come down to a field goal as well.

With all of this said, we do have this…the Patriots are outscoring opponents by 13.3 PPG on the season (including their losses), while the Jets are losing by an average of 3.9 PPG (including their wins). The Pats have won 4 in a row, scoring no less than 29 in each of them, and scoring 37-59 points in each of their last three.

The New York Jets have been going in the opposite direction, winning just 2 of their last 7 games. Before their win over the Rams last week, the Jets had lost to New England, Miami, and Seattle in the three previous weeks.

This is a big game for the Jets who need to gain some ground on the two wild card positions. At just 4-6 the Jets still have a shot to win a wild card spot, but it’s highly unlikely (obvious understatement) that they’ll catch the Patriots in the division.

I was impressed by the way the Jets played last week on the road, as they beat the Rams (27-13). But, it was the Rams.

Bet on TurkeyDay Football – U.S. Friendly


In the 1st game between these two teams they both rushed for over 100+ yards, but neither QB was overly effective. Brady was held to 26/42 for 259 passing yards and 2 TD’s, while Sanchez completed 28/41 for 328 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.

Gronkowski led the Patriots in that game with 6 receptions for 78 receiving yards and 2 TD’s. This week Gronk will be out due to a broken forearm, and that can only help the Jets chances.

The Jets offense ranks amongst the worst in the NFL, but against the Pats defense they should move the football like they were able to do in the 1st match-up. The Patriots struggle against the pass (289.7 PYPG – 30th) and Sanchez needs to expose them.

The biggest question is whether the Jets defense can shut down the Patriots offense enough to stay in this game. Of course the Pats are going to miss Gronk and his 10 TD’s, but they have other weapons they can use effectively as well. They’ll need to, because the Jets rank 4th against the pass (200.1 PYPG) and shut down the NE WR’s in week 7.

The Jets focused a lot of attention on Gronkowski in their first game, holding him to 6 receptions and 78 yards. It appears that TE Aaron Hernandez will be back for this game, but his playing time may be limited. Even if he isn’t 100% healthy, the TE position could get more open space, with the Jets D focusing more on Wes Welker and the running game. Nobody seems to know how healthy Hernandez is, but rumors are that he was ready last Sunday and coaches didn’t want him playing twice in five days. So, if he was ready 5 days ago, he might get some decent playing time on Thanksgiving.

I think the difference will come down to a couple of things. First, the Patriots lead the NFL at +20 on turnovers. The Jets are +1 in that department. If the Patriots win this battle by +1, they’re very likely to cover right there. Even if they lose this battle, their Gronk-less offense could still cover. For them not to cover, I think they would have to lose the turnover battle, and I doubt that’s going to happen. Sanchez is good for 1-2 fumbles per game, and probably no less than 1 INT as well.

Second, I think the Patriots will be more effective running the ball this time around. They have an excellent run game which ranks 5th in the league, going against the 30th ranked rushing defense. The Patriots gained 131 yards on 31 carries against the Jets, but the run game didn’t open up the field for Brady’s passing game. That game was too predictable for the Jets defense and I expect Bill Belichick to mix up the offense better this time. Although the Jets have a great passing defense, I think Brady will find more open receivers, and we shouldn’t see another 3-point OT game.

I also think the Patriots will do a better job of putting pressure on Mark Sanchez. Although they sacked Sanchez four times in their week 7 game, they allowed him to pass for a season-high 328 yards. Although the Patriots passing defense is close to terrible, I think they’ll focus on stopping the big plays, and one big defensive play could also be the difference on the Patriots being able to cover. The Jets don’t have any huge playmakers in the WR position, and I think the patriots will do a better job of containing this offense. I didn’t say a great job, but better. And, a little bit better is all we need.

Below are the latest Patriots vs. Jets betting lines, along with my free picks for this Thanksgiving Day matchup.

New England Patriots vs. NY Jets Point Spread

Bet the Patriots -7 (-110) at BetOnline.com

New England averages 35.8 PPG (1st) and in their L3 NE has scored 47 PPG on average. In those 3 games Gronk had 18 catches for 314 receiving yards and 5 TD’s. Aaron Hernandez is expected back in the line-up this week, and he could make up for a lot of those lost yards. I also expect New England to play a more creative game this week, making it tougher on the Jets passing defense than they did in week 7. I’m taking the Pats to cover ATS.

Patriots vs. Jets Money Line Bets

I’m not seeing enough value on either side of the Patriots vs. Jets money line to make a bet here. Considering the week 7 game was decided by just 3 points in OT, I think -310 is too much risk on the Patriots. I do expect them to win SU, but I don’t like those odds.

For the Jets, I just don’t see them winning this game. Even at +280 it feels like a sucker bet, so I’ll be staying away from this as well. In this game, I prefer to give up an even touchdown and take the Patriots -7 on the point spread.

NE vs. NYJ Over/Under Odds

Bet Over 48.5 (-110) at BetOnline.com

Right now, the Patriots vs Jets over/under is 48.5 (-110) on either side at BetOnline and JustBet. I’m expecting a score in the range of 27-33 for the Patriots, and 21 to 24 for the Jets. This gives us a total in the range of 48 to 57, easily giving us value on the over.

Although the Jets defense held the Patriots to 29 in OT in their last meeting, I expect the Patriots to do a little better in this one. Their offense is too good, and even without Gronk they can be effective.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.

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