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Patriots vs. Eagles Week 11 Best Bets and Betting Preview

New England Patriots(8-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles(5-4)

  • Where: Lincoln Financial Field. Philadelphia, PA
  • When: November 17, 2019 4:25 pm EST
  • Spread: Patriots -4 (-105) vs. Eagles +4 (-115)
  • Moneyline: Patriots (-190) vs. Eagles (+165)
  • Over / Under: Over 44.5 Points (-110) vs. Under 44.5 Points (-110)

The New England Patriots (6-3 ATS) and Philadelphia Eagles (4-5 ATS) are meeting H2H for the first time since Super Bowl 52, which as we all know the Eagles emerged victorious (41-33).

Both teams are coming off a bye and have had time to get healthy/prepare.

However, the Patriots are typically outstanding after a bye week. Since 2010, the Pats are 14-4 (11-6-1 ATS) when coming off a bye, while the Eagles are only 6-4 (4-6 ATS) in the same situation.

Since 2010, the Patriots also have the best win% (25-6 / 80.7%) and cover% (21-10 / 67.7%) when coming off a loss. With the revenge factor and these trends it’s tough to not jump on the Patriots.

NE vs. PHI Week 11 Odds Movement

I’ve been surprised by the lack of line movement in this game. The Pats opened up at -3.5 points and the spread is now -4 points at the Bovada Sportsbook (Sign-up to get a $250 NFL Bonus).

Nearly 80% of early bets are coming in on NE and the action is extremely one-sided. Typically a line like this would have jumped already and the fact it hasn’t leads me to believe this game will be close.

As for the game total, the over/under opened up at 46 points and is now down to 44.5 points.

Patriots at Eagles Stats Pack

The Patriots come into this game with edges on both sides of the football.

As you can see, the Patriots have been dominant this season. They’re coming off a loss to Baltimore (37-20), but their undefeated otherwise and only one win was within a TD (16-10 vs. Buffalo).

Defensively the Patriots have 27 takeaways (19 INTs / 8 Fumbles), which is first in the NFL. They’re also getting pressure on opposing QBs and they rank 4th in sacks per game (3.6).

Patriots vs. Eagles Money Line and Point Spread (ATS) Predictions

While the lack of line movement is concerning and makes this game look like a bit of a trap, there’s no way I’m betting against the Patriots coming off a loss and a bye week.

Whenever action is completely one-sided and I’m on the public side, I’m always worried. However, the numbers give the Pats a huge edge, plus the trends are favoring the Patriots too.

NE at PHI 2019 PicksThese teams rarely play H2H, but Tom Brady has played in Philly twice in his career. He went 30/44 for 255 yards and 3 TDs in his first game in Philly back in 2003. The second time Brady played in Philly was in 2011 where he went 24/34 for 361 yards and 3 TDs. NE won both games handedly.

One other area of concern is the Patriots struggles on the road against decent competition. They have done well this season, but the schedule has been easy. Last year they went 3-5 on the road.

In their first real test against BAL, the Pats were dominated. However, the Eagles offense is nowhere near as good as Baltimore’s. The Eagles passing offense is terrible and the Patriots are only giving up 4.6 yards per pass attempt (1st), so how are the Eagles going to sustain drives?

The Ravens rushed for 210 yards and 3 TDs against NE, but Lamar Jackson had 61 of those yards and 2 of the 3 TDs. Carson Wentz only has 144 rushing yards on the season.

Will Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders be able to gash a defense that can play the run. NE doesn’t need to focus on a single WR on the Eagles. They can play man coverage and stack the box.

Patriots vs. Eagles Over/Under Pick for Week 11

Tom Brady was quoted saying that he still isn’t over the Super Bowl loss to Philly this week. He has had two weeks to prepare and you can bet he’s looking to blowout the home team.

The H2H over/under trends point towards a lot of points being scored as well. Since 2005, these two teams have played each other five times and every game has had 45+ points scored.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.

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