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Packers vs. Lions Point Spread – NFL Week 3 Betting

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Week 3 Preview

When: Sunday, September 21st 2014 at 1:00pm ET
Where: Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan
Watch: FOX

The Green Bay Packers 1-1 (0-1-1 ATS) travel to Ford Field to play their NFC North rivals the Detroit Lions 1-1 (1-1 ATS). Detroit lost to Carolina (24-7) on the road in week 2 while the Packers came back from an 18-point deficit to beat the Jets (31-24) at Lambeau.

Current Betting Lines in GB vs. DET

Odds courtesy of Bovada ($250 Bonus for US Bettors).

Detroit opened up as a –1 to –2 point favorite and the line has settled at –1.5 points currently. We haven’t seen the total move yet although it could increase 1-2 points before Sunday. Both of these offenses have QB’s that can put up points in a hurry.

GB @ DET Stats Pack

Green Bay has more balance on offense. I’m a fan of Eddie Lacy and his bruising run style. Detroit’s offense is more explosive though and that could pose problems for GB. The Lions have a considerable edge on defense, especially when they’re at home.

Can the Lions Remain Undefeated at Home?

The Lions beat the Giants (35-14) in week 1 at home and it was a dominating performance on both sides of the football. Last week was the complete opposite, as the Lions lost the turnover battle (3-0) and had trouble moving the football on Carolina.

Detroit is only averaging 73.0 RYPG (28th) and they need to work on becoming more balanced. Reggie Bush and Joique Bell have only combined for 128 rushing yards (1 TD) on 40 carries. However, both have been contributing in the pass game as expected.

This week the Lions need more production on the ground. Green Bay allows 176.5 RYPG (31st) compared to 178.5 PYPG (6th). It’ll be much easier for Detroit to find running lanes than it will be to air it out on a secondary that has played well to start the season.

I don’t expect the Packers to hold the Lions to under 200 passing yards though. The Packers have played two teams that don’t air it out that much, but this secondary is going to be tested. Detroit is currently averaging 297.0 PYPG (4th) through two games.

Green Bay’s run game has struggled out of the gate as well (80.0 RYPG – 26th). Eddie Lacy is a bit banged up and he has had to go up against two tough run defenses. Lacy will likely struggle again, as the Lions have only allowed 57.5 RYPG (2nd).

If the Packers are to win on the road in week 3 they’re going to need Aaron Rodgers to play well. The Packers are averaging 242.5 PYPG (13th) and that’s in large part to Jordy Nelson who has already hauled in 18 receptions for 292 yards and 1 TD.

Last season these two NFC North rivals played twice and the home team won both games. Detroit won 40-10 and covered the point spread (-7) at Ford Field while the Packers won 22-9 at Lambeau Field and covered the point spread (-10).

Packers vs. Lions Predictions

The public has been betting the Packers this week, which surprises me based on how they’ve looked. Detroit was in a tough spot last week, but I expect them to bounce back at home against a defense that has had trouble stopping the Seahawks and Jets.

I’m not one for trends, but I noticed one I liked this week for this match-up. The Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after they put up 15 points or less in the previous game. That means they generally bounce back well after a poor offensive performance.

In the NFL you have to throw out what happened last week and look at the big picture. Everyone watched the Lions turn the football over and expect that to happen again, but the Packers have one of the worst defenses and won’t pull off what Carolina did.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.

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