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Oregon vs USC Betting Lines – Nov. 3, 2012

#4 Oregon Ducks (8-0, 4-4 ATS) vs #17 USC Trojans (6-2, 2-6 ATS)
When: 7:00pm EST. Saturday, November 3, 2012
Where: Los Angeles Coliseum. Los Angeles, CA

US Friendly
US Friendly
-8.5 (-110)
+8.5 (-110)
-8 (-110)
+8 (-110)
o69.5 (-110) / u69.5 (-110)
o69.5 (-110) / u69.5 (-110)

CFB handicappers have had this week’s giant PAC-12 match up between the Oregon Ducks and USC Trojans circled on their calendars for months. This has become a huge rivalry, one that every USC and Oregon fan looks forward to. In some ways, a ‘bad’ season isn’t so bad if your team wins this game.

The Ducks will be eager to serve up some revenge for last year’s 38-35 home loss to the Trojans. USC on the other hand, will be very eager to show the college football world that they’re not the same team that was upset by the Arizona Wildcats (5-3, 5-3 ATS) 39-36 last week.

This is as big a game as the PAC-12 is going to see this season, and the handle will be huge. Oregon comes in as a pretty big favorite, even though this is a home game for USC.

Oregon Ducks Betting Lines and Analysis

Where to Bet on Oregon Ducks

Best Oregon Point Spread: -8 (-110) at JustBet.cx
Best Oregon Money Line: -315 at BetOnline.com

With an average of 53.4 points/game, the Oregon Ducks are the top scoring offense in all of college football. In fact, they’ve yet to put up less than 42 in a single game (and they didn’t even cover the spread in that one). The deep and fast Oregon offense runs all over opponents and regularly put up 500+ yards in a game.

Oregon has also played in some ridiculously lopsided games this season, including a 70-14 blowout against Colorado and a 49-0 shutout of then-#22 Arizona Wildcats. (The same Wildcats that upset USC last week.)

Defensively, Oregon has been able to keep opponents out of the endzone. Since Arkansas State inexplicably ran up 35 points on the Ducks in week one, no one has score more than 26 points against this defensive juggernaut.

This incredibly well-rounded group is well prepped to face USC on their home turf. There’s really no weak link to report on when you’re talking about Oregon, but remember, the last team to beat them was the Trojans.

USC Trojans Betting Lines and Analysis

Where to Bet on USC Trojans

Best USC Point Spread: +8.5 (-110) at BetOnline.com
Best USC Money Line: +265 at BetOnline.com

The USC Trojans seemed destined for greatness when the 2012 CFB season began, but conference losses to Stanford and Arizona have seriously derailed those plans. They can get back in the hunt with a win today, but it’s going to require them to play like they’re supposed to play, not the way they’ve been playing.

Last week’s upset to Arizona was a study in contrast between the Trojans’ five offensive turnovers and brilliant performances from WR Marqise Lee and QB Matt Barkley. With 299 yards receiving, Lee set a new single game PAC-12 record. Barkley looked pretty impressive too, with 493 passing yards and three touchdowns to his credit.

Arizona is definitely an up-and-coming force in the PAC-12, but there’s no excuse for the Trojan defense to be giving up 30 points and 588 yards to them. Anyone who thinks this performance was a fluke should take a look at the Stanford loss. In that game they allowed 417 yards and turned the ball over three times.

Stellar performances from a couple of stars doesn’t mean much for teams that can’t perform under pressure, and USC is that kind of team (see: five turnovers). This is a group that just can’t seem to hold things together when it matters most.

Oregon vs USC Betting Lines & Picks for Nov. 3, 2012

Thanks to LA’s proximity to Las Vegas (lots of USC fans living & visiting there), USC fans can push betting lines in weird directions, especially as the weekend draws near. Expect to see a lot of back and forth movement, especially on point spreads. As always, it’s about value, which tends to push me towards Oregon in this one.

Oregon vs USC Point Spread Pick

Oregon’s explosive offense has vexed every team they’ve played over the past few years, except USC. The Trojans beat them last season, and could do so again this year (but I doubt it). Expect to see the line see-saw between 6.5 and 9 depending on where you’re betting. I feel a lot more confident about the Ducks when they’re -6.5 or -7.5 than -9, but would shift to USC if it goes higher than 9.

For now, I’m recommending Oregon -8 (-110) at JustBet.cx. If the line is -9 or higher when you’re ready to bet, I’d recommend taking USC and the points.

Oregon vs USC Money Line Pick

USC isn’t stable enough to handle a revenge-minded Oregon squad that’s devouring opponents of all shapes and sizes. This one may turn out close, but I think the Ducks have the edge SU. However, the best Oregon money line is -315, and I don’t see value in that. A couple of plays here & there could be the difference, and that’s too much risk imo.

The best USC money line is +265 at BetOnline, and although I like Oregon minus the points right now, I wouldn’t argue with anyone taking the USC mooney line. If you expect the home team to play the way they ‘can’, the USC money line might be showing value. Personally, I don’t see it though, so I’ll be staying away from the Oregon vs. USC money line on Saturday.

Oregon vs USC Over/Under Picks

For the Oregon vs. USC over/under, I’m taking o69.5 (-110) at BetOnline.com.

Even if the Trojan defense has a great night, you can pretty much count on the Ducks putting up something close to 40 points. Should Barkley and Lee play like, well, Barkley and Lee, that’s going to be a another 28-31 points. So I think the over is the smart bet right now. For the over/under, USC is really the key here. If they can perform against this tough Oregon defense, they’ll do the job we need them to. Imo, there’s more upside in the USC offense vs Oregon defense than downside.

This article was written by Jess

Jess is the editor of MobileSportsBetting.com. His job duties include everything nobody else is doing, and making sure it all gets done on time. When he gets a chance, Jess loves to write about NFL, MLB, Formula 1, and tennis betting.

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