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NFL Week 5: Packers vs. Cowboys Money Line Pick

Green Bay Packers(3-1) @ Dallas Cowboys(3-1)

  • Where: AT&T Stadium. Dallas, TX
  • When: October 5, 2019 4:00 pm EST
  • Spread: Packers +3.5 (-120) vs. Cowboys -3.5 (+100)
  • Moneyline: Packers (+155) vs. Cowboys (-175)
  • Over / Under: Over 46.5 (-110) vs. Under 46.5 (-110)

One of the best match-ups for week 5 in the NFL is the Packers at Cowboys.

The Green Bay Packers 3-1 (3-1 ATS) have 10 days to prepare for the Cowboys, as they last played on TNF, losing to the Eagles (34-27). It was a winnable game, but red zone efficiency cost GB.

The Dallas Cowboys 3-1 (3-1 ATS) also lost for the first time in week 4. The Cowboys had a chance to go 4-0 on primetime TV on Sunday night, but they came out flat on offense and lost to NO (12-10).

Packers vs. Cowboys Week 5 Market Moves and Sentiment

Dallas opened as -4 point favorites, but are now sitting at -3.5 points with Bovada. About 60% of the point spread action in this game has been on the Packers, which is surprising to me.

I recommend a bet on the Cowboys money line (-175) at Bovada ($250 NFL Bonus).

The hook on the point spread worries me, especially after the Cowboys offense struggled last week, but if the spread continues trending down, you could bet Dallas -3 (-110) instead of the ML.

Action on the over/under has been basically split down the middle up to this point. The game total opened up at 48 points and is now down to 46.5 points at the Bovada Sportsbook.

GB vs. DAL Stats Pack

Here’s how these two teams match-up statistically through the first quarter of the regular season.

The Cowboys have a definite edge offensively. That edge could be even bigger on Sunday, as the Packers leading WR Davante Adams is injured and could miss this week’s game.

Adams leads GB in receptions (25) and receiving yards (378). His loss would be costly if he can’t play and an already struggling Packers offense would be without their most consistent playmaker.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys ML and ATS Prediction

Packers vs Cowboys Week 5Whether Adams suits up or not for GB, the best bet is on the Cowboys ML at home.

First off, the Cowboys are one of the best home teams in the NFL. Dallas have won seven games in a row at home. DAL are 2-0 at home this season, defeating the Giants (35-17) and Dolphins (31-6).

Secondly, the Packers have been poor against the run. GB are allowing teams to gain 5 yards per rush attempt (29th) while the Cowboys are gaining 4.9 yards per rush attempt (8th).

Ezekiel Elliott has 73 rushing attempts for 324 rushing yards and 3 TDs. Elliott had one of his worst games in his career against the Saints and I expect him to bounce back in a big way at home.

Left tackle Tyron Smith is already ruled out with an injury, which is bad news for Dallas. The Packers have been getting a lot of pressure on QBs, and without Smith, Dak Prescott could struggle.

However, even if Prescott and the pass game struggles to get going again this week, the Cowboys can easily win this game by running the football and shutting down the Packers offense.

Dallas have scored a TD 76.92% of the time they’ve been in the red zone, which is tied for first in the league with Seattle. The Packers rank 11th in red zone scoring efficiency (TD only) at 64.29%.

The Cowboys also have a huge edge in third down conversion percentage. Dallas have converted 52.38% of their third downs (2nd) while the Packers have only converted 31.91% (27th).

I know some of you won’t want to bet on the Cowboys ML (-175) because of the vig. It’s the case I’d try to wait until closer to kick-off and see if the point spread drops to a FG without the hook.

I also lean to this game going under 46.5 points, but it’ll be close. I believe the Packers defense will be exposed again, especially on the ground where they’ve been getting killed all season.

However, I don’t expect the Packers to score many points. I’d wait to see if Adams is confirmed as out prior to betting on the under. If Adams is out, bet the under before the line drops too much.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.

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