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NFL Week 17 Upset Alert: Giants at Redskins Money Line Bet

New York Giants(10–5) @ Washington Redskins(8–6–1)

  • Where: FedEx Field. Landover, Maryland
  • When: January 1, 2017 4:25 pm EST
  • Spread: Giants +8 (-115) vs. Redskins -8 (-105)
  • Moneyline: Giants (+184) vs. Redskins (-222)
  • Over / Under: Over 44 (-110) vs. Under 44 (-110)

Week 17 is upon us, meaning that for 20 unlucky fan bases, the first day of the new year will be the last day that they are able to watch their football team play a game. In this afternoon matchup, only one of these two franchises needs to fear the season ending: With the New York Giants set to take on the Washington Redskins, we see two teams that both have the potential to make the playoffs.

For these two NFC East teams to make the playoffs would mark the first time since the 2007/08 season in which three teams from the same division make the playoffs, with the Super Bowl contender Dallas Cowboys already having locked up the #1 overall seed in the NFC, a first-round bye, and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

For the Redskins to make the playoffs, two things need to happen. One, the Packers/Lions game Sunday night cannot end in a tie. If it did, there would potentially be tiebreaker situations in play, given the fact that the Redskins have already tied a game. If that game does not end in a tie, then the only thing the Redskins have to do is beat their hated rival New York Giants in order to make the playoffs.

Regardless of the playoff implications, however, this game has definite potential to hold value for interested parties. Not only do I think that the strangely high point spread could lead to an enticing ATS bet in this matchup, but I also see potential value in a moneyline upset pick.

Let’s take a look at these two teams individually.

The New York Giants need this game to kick-off a playoff run

NYG vs. WAS ML PicksFrankly, I was very surprised to find that the line was this high. I had to double- and triple-check the line, and also check the headlines to make sure I wasn’t missing some major development. It’s true that the Giants have locked up their playoff spot, but that doesn’t at all mean that the atmosphere in the Giant locker room is relaxed.

The Giants were badly beaten on Thursday Night Football against the Philadelphia Eagles, and with a loss against the Redskins they would be heading into the playoffs fresh off of a two-game losing streak. The Giants have a lot of experienced players that know what it takes to win in December and make a Super Bowl run (the G-Men are currently sitting at +1800 for Super Bowl odds). I don’t think there is any way the idea of losing this game will be acceptable to them, playoff spots be damned.

Furthermore, consider the simple fact that the Giants are coming off of 10 days’ rest going to a rival’s stadium. In my mind, this combines together not only for the Giants to cover as 8-point underdogs, but also for them to potentially pull of the surprise moneyline upset.

The Washington Redskins haven’t proven that they have what it takes

The Redskins road win last week against the Chicago Bears was certainly impressive, but much more important in my view was their loss against the Carolina Panthers the week before. The Panthers simply dominated the game in all facets, causing 3 turnovers despite allowing the Redskins (second in the league in passing yards) another +300-yard effort from Kirk Cousins.

Eli Manning had an Eli Manning game against the Eagles last Thursday, but it’s very unlikely that he would turn the ball over 3 times two games in a row. After a 5-turnover performance against the Bears, I don’t think the Redskins will end up with any against the New York Giants on New Year’s Day.

Washington’s record this season is not a fluke: They play about as well as an 8-win team should. If the Redskins truly inspired confidence that they can beat the superior Giants in order to make the playoffs, they would have inspired me earlier in the season. I think they lose this game and miss the playoffs.

Why I’m betting the Giants to upset the Redskins in week 17

I recommend a bet on the Giants money line (+184) at the Bovada Sportsbook (Get $250 free). I predict the Giants will win 24-17 and end the Redskins playoff hopes in dramatic fashion.

One of the NFL gambling principles we subscribe too is that gamblers in Weeks 16 and 17 generally put too much stock in the idea of a team having “nothing to play for.” We think that this line is drastically inflated based on the simple fact that the Giants have their playoff spot locked up and the Redskins don’t.

But just because a team has an opportunity to make the playoffs doesn’t mean they will. We like the more veteran quarterback with two Super Bowl rings already to understand the importance of putting together a winning effort headed into the playoffs.

David HeinenThis article was written by David Heinen

David Heinen is a freelance psychology writer by day, inveterate NFL junkie by night. Born and raised on the Green Bay Packers, David is a die-hard Cheesehead, not to mention a cheese enthusiast in his spare time.

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