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NFL Week 13 Upset Special: Bet Chiefs ML Against Falcons

Kansas City Chiefs(8-3-0) @ Atlanta Falcons(7-4-0)

  • Where: Georgia Dome. Atlanta, Georgia
  • When: December 3, 2016 1:00 pm EST
  • Spread: Chiefs +3.5 (-110) vs. Falcons -3.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Chiefs (+165) vs. Falcons (-190)
  • Over / Under: Over 49 (-110) vs. Under 49 (-110)

It’s only a matter of time before the Atlanta Falcons fall apart in the NFC South. Isn’t it? Last season the Falcons started 5-0, but finished 8-8 and missed the NFL playoffs. Atlanta started 4-1 this season, but have dropped to 7-4 and have allowed the division to be a closer race than it should be.

This week the Falcons are at home against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are generally always good at home, but this season they’re also 4-2 on the road. Atlanta are 3-2 at home with losses against the Buccaneers (31-24) and Chargers (33-30), but they’ve won two in a row at the Georgia Dome.

At the time of publishing, about 60% of point spread bets are on ATL to cover. There has been reverse line movement in this game and the Falcons ATS feels like a trap the bookies hope the public will bet.

Why the Chiefs will defeat the Falcons in week 13

Bet on the KC Chiefs to defeat ATL FalconsSince a week 5 bye, the Chiefs are 6-1 and the only loss was against TB by two points (19-17). On paper, the Chiefs leave a lot to be desired, but they’re winning football games.

Offensively, KC are averaging 22.9 PPG (16th), 231.7 PYPG (23rd) and 96.5 RYPG (23rd). Alex Smith hasn’t thrown for 300+ yards since week 1, but that’ll change this week. The recipe for a KC victory in Atlanta is passing the football, as the Falcons rank last in the NFL against the pass (282.2 PYPG).

The key to the Chiefs success has been playing with the lead. In the opening half of games Kansas rank 27th in pace of play (28.77 seconds/play) and that slow pace continues with the lead. Spencer Ware is averaging 4.7 yards per rushing attempt (8th in NFL) and can keep the chains moving.

The Chiefs don’t need to pile up the yards to beat you. The offense works efficiently and keeps the other offense off the field, which is extremely important when playing the NFL’s highest-scoring offense.

Atlanta average 32.5 PPG (1st), 303.1 PYPG (3rd) and 108.4 RYPG (15th) on offense. Matt Ryan is having an MVP season – he has thrown for 3516 yards, 26 TDs and just 6 INTs. However, KC rank 20th against the pass (260.5 PYPG) and will be able to keep Ryan from airing it all over the field.

KC have struggled against the run (121.4 RYPG – 29th), but Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman have been struggling to get going recently. That’s largely because the Falcons don’t need to run, but last week the two RBs combined for just 69 yards on 24 carries. If you limit Ryan, the Falcons offense sputters.

Andy Reid hasn’t talked much this week about Jeremy Maclin’s status, but he could be ready to suit up after missing the Chiefs last three games. In his absence, Tyreek Hill has 23 receptions for 194 yards and 1 TD the last three weeks. He also had a 3-yard rushing TD last week.

If Maclin can suit up I love the Chiefs to upset Atlanta even more. Having two capable WRs will open the field for Travis Kelce and the Falcons have been among the worst teams at defending TEs. Kelce has been playing great too. He has gone for 100+ receiving yards in each of the last two weeks.

Chiefs vs. Falcons over/under picks

The game total in this game is 49 points, which is tied for the 3rd highest total in week 13. I’m definitely betting on under 49 (-110) at the Bovada Sportsbook. I have KC winning and they’ll do that by keeping the offense on the field for long drives. If the game plays out how I expect, there won’t be much scoring.

Kansas City have only had two games this season with 50+ points scored and both of those games were against AFC West opponents (SD and DEN). The Chiefs are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, but they can’t afford a letdown, as they’re still chasing the Raiders for first place in the division.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.

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