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NFL Week 1 TNF: Panthers vs. Broncos Over/Under Picks

Panthers vs. Broncos NFL Week 1 PicksWhen: Thursday, September 8th 2016 at 8:30 PM ET
Where: Sports Authority Field in Denver, Colorado
Watch: NBC

THE Denver Broncos dominated the Carolina Panthers in the 2016 NFL Super Bowl – winning 24-10. While revenge won’t be too sweet, the Panthers will be looking to kick the new season off with a road win. We couldn’t ask for a better Thursday Night Football game to begin the regular season.

Panthers at Broncos week 1 betting lines

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Despite the Broncos defeating the Panthers in the Super Bowl, Carolina are favorites in week 1. That was expected, as the Broncos come into the season with big question marks at the QB position.

At the time of publishing, the Panthers are receiving about 65% of point spread bets and 70% of money line bets. Bettors are split on whether or not the game will go over or under the total of 42 points.

Panthers vs. Broncos TNF over/under predictions

These teams boasted two of the best defenses in the NFL last season. Denver allowed 17.9 PPG (4th) and Carolina allowed 19.5 PPG (6th), but the Panthers defense is expected to regress a bit.

CB Josh Norman, CB Charles Tillman, DE Jared Allen, S Roman Harper and CB Cortland Finnegan have all departed in the off-season and several rookies are expected to start in place of the departures.

Luckily for the Panthers, the Broncos offense will be led by Trevor Siemian. The second-year NFL QB will make his first start and you can bet the Panthers are going to blitz him often. The Panthers front seven is elite, but if Siemian has time, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders will beat this secondary.

Carolina’s offense remains relatively the same and all skill players are back. The Panthers scored 31.1 PPG (1st) last season and that number could improve with WR Kelvin Benjamin healthy. Denver allowed 283.1 YPG last season and this game is at Mile High, which will limit the Panthers offense this week.

The total is low, but the best bet is still on under 42 points (-110).

CAR vs. DEN point spread picks

Cam Newton and the Panthers offense is definitely in better shape than the Broncos offense. Siemian will be starting, but only until Paxton Lynch is ready to takeover the team. C.J. Anderson will need to play a bigger role on offense, but the Panthers only allowed 88.4 RYPG last season.

The Panthers front seven will cause the Broncos offense headaches. Charles Johnson, Star Lotulelei, Luke Kuechly and the rest of the front seven can all apply pressure and stop the run. Siemian looked good during preseason and earned the starting role, but this isn’t a great match-up for a QB making his debut.

Denver brings back one of the best defenses in the NFL, but the Panthers have a lot of firepower now that Benjamin is back at WR. Ted Ginn Jr. will have more space to operate downfield and with more threats in the pass game, Jonathan Stewart should find lots of gaps to run into behind his offensive line.

This will be a tight low scoring affair between two of the best teams in the league. Both defenses are great, but the Panthers have a considerable edge on offense, especially at QB. Newton is the reigning MVP and he has more weapons this season. Carolina will convert a couple big drives and win a close one.

The only way I can see the Broncos pulling off the upset at home is if the defense is able to force a couple big turnovers and bring one back to the house for a TD, but that’s something no one can predict.

Make sure you pay the extra juice and lock up the Panthers at -3 and not -3.5 points. The extra ½ point provides a lot of insurance in what’s expected to be a low scoring game. Jump on the point spread now, as the public is going to continue betting Carolina leading up to kick-off and this line will close at -3.5 or -4.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.

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