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Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Week 13 Preview

When: Thursday, November 28th 2013 at 12:30pm ET
Where: Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan
Watch: Live on FOX

This is the first of three match-ups on Thanksgiving Day (Thursday) this week in the NFL. The Green Bay Packers 5-5-1 (4-7 ATS) need to find a way to win this road game against the Detroit Lions 6-5 (5-6 ATS) in order to keep pace in a close AFC North division race.

Latest Point Spread, Game Total & Money Line Odds

Odds courtesy of Bovada!

The point spread opened at –5.5 points in favor of the Lions and it has been bet up to –6 points already. The over/under opened up at O/U 50 points and we haven’t seen any line movement yet. I expect the closing line to be closer to –7 for the Lions by Thursday.

Three Reasons Why I’m Betting on the Lions to Cover

1. No Aaron Rodgers – No Wins

Since Aaron Rodgers went out with an injury the Packers have been winless and their season is now in jeopardy. Rodgers isn’t likely to play this week and I expect Matt Flynn will get the start after he went 21/36 for 218 yards and 1 TD in relief of Tolzien last week.

On the season the Packers are averaging 284.5 RYPG (5th) and 25.8 PPG (8th) offensively, but those stats have been worsening since the injury to Rodgers. In the last four weeks Green Bay is only scoring 18 PPG and the main reason is because of turnovers.

2. Lions Passing Offense Will Dominate Packers Secondary

Matthew Stafford and the Lions offense averages 308.4 PYPG (3rd) and 26 PPG (7th). Calvin Johnson has 66 receptions for 1198 yards and 11 TD’s. Johnson missed the game earlier this season against Green Bay, but he’s healthy and will dominate the GB secondary.

Green Bay’s defense is allowing 244.2 PYPG (20th). Earlier this season when these two teams played Stafford completed 25/40 passes for 262 passing yards and 1 TD. The Packers won that game 22-9 with Rodgers, but that was because the Lions couldn’t punch it in.

Nate Burleson was back from his injury last week as well and he caught 7 passes for 77 yards and 1 TD. Now that the Lions #2 WR is back Johnson will find more space downfield. With this game being on national television look for Stafford and the Lions to shine.

3. Detroit Will Be Able to Shutdown Eddie Lacy

Detroit ranks 4th in rushing yards allowed (88 RYPG) this season and not a single RB has gained over 100 rushing yards on Detroit the entire season. Eddie Lacy was a big part of the Packers offense last week, as he gained 110 rushing yards and 1 TD on 25 carries.

Green Bay has averaged 139.9 RYPG (6th). Their rushing numbers have been dropping lately despite running the football more often. With Rodgers starting at QB the defense has to focus on the pass whereas with Flynn/Tolzien the defense can zero in on the RB.

Green Bay vs. Detroit H2H

These two teams play each other often and the Packers have dominated the H2H series. The Packers have beaten the Lions in the L5 match-ups and the last time Detroit won was back in 2011. However, with Rodgers out you can’t look too much at past H2H trends.

Packers vs. Lions Predictions

Detroit could be multiple games clear in the AFC North if they took advantage of their opportunities. After losing to the Steelers and Buccaneers the last two weeks the Lions have made the AFC North close and now they need to start winning games immediately.

The Lions have a 3-1 AFC North record with their lone loss against the Packers earlier in the season. Detroit had trouble scoring and Stafford looked lost most of the game without his #1 WR. Now things have changed, as GB is missing their biggest playmaker.

Chicago is sitting at 6-5 along with the Lions in the division and the Bears get to play the Vikings this week. The Bears will likely win in their week 12 match-up, which means Detroit has to win to keep the lead. I like Detroit to cover the spread at –6.5 points or lower.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.

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