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KC Chiefs at Denver Broncos Wk 12 Over/Under Bets

Kansas City Chiefs(7-3-0) @ Denver Broncos(7-3-0)

  • Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Denver, Colorado
  • When: November 27, 2016 8:30 pm EST
  • Spread: Chiefs +3 (+110) vs. Broncos -3 (-130)
  • Moneyline: Chiefs (+145) vs. Broncos (-170)
  • Over / Under: Over 39.5 (-110) vs. Under 39.5 (-110)

The inside track to at least a Wild Card berth is at stake Sunday night when the Denver Broncos host the Kansas City Chiefs in a crucial AFC West grudge match.

Both teams are 7-3, one game behind the Oakland Raiders in the division. They also occupy both wild-card slots, and the only non-division leader in the AFC with a winning record entering Week 12 is the Miami Dolphins at 6-4.

The Broncos are coming off their bye week and won 25-23 at New Orleans in Week 10. Will Parks’ return of a blocked extra point with 1:22 to play provided the winning points as the reigning Super Bowl champions rallied from a third-quarter deficit by scoring 15 points in the final period.

Trevor Siemian threw for 258 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions but also absorbed a season-high six sacks after being dropped only 13 times in his previous eight starts. While Siemian was pedestrian in his overall accuracy completing 25 of 40 passes, 20 of those completions resulted in first downs as he helped Denver convert 11 of 19 third-down attempts.

Kansas City is looking to bounce back from a surprising 19-17 home loss to Tampa Bay last week that ended its five-game winning streak. Alex Smith threw for 261 yards and a late touchdown, but it was his costly red zone interception early in the fourth quarter that led to the Buccaneers going on a scoring drive that proved too much to overcome.

The Chiefs defense also shouldered some of the blame for the loss since they were unable to make timely stops. Tampa Bay went 11 for 16 on third down, rolled up 442 yards of total offense and held possession for more than 35 minutes.

Broncos Must Force Turnovers and Run, Run, Run

The Broncos lead the NFL with 93 points scored following takeaways and have scored a league-high 38.9 percent of their points on turnovers. While the Chiefs picked off Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler a combined five times in a 29-13 victory last season, the Broncos had a plus-6 turnover margin in winning the previous two contests and picked off Smith three times in those games while holding him to 344 yards combined. Denver is 5-0 when recording more turnovers than its opponent this season compared to 2-3 when it has the same amount or commits more.

Offensively, the Broncos need to take some pressure off Siemian with their ground game. In the three games since losing C.J. Anderson to injury, Denver has totaled 193 rushing yards on 2.6 yards per carry, but it also has moved the chains via the ground game just nine times. Devontae Booker has struggled to find holes — he’s rushed for 152 yards since replacing Anderson as a starter — and the Broncos can’t expect Siemian to provide 20 first downs like he did versus the Saints in Week 10.

The Chiefs Also Need to Win the Turnover Battle

The Chiefs are also quite adept at forcing turnovers with a league-leading 23 and have a whopping seven takeaways in the red zone — no other team has more than three. While Siemian has thrown only seven INTs all year, four have come in the last three contests, and Marcus Peters picked passes in both games against Denver last season.

Given the Chiefs’ short-passing game on offense, they can ill-afford another red zone giveaway similar to what Smith had last week and must get back to their ball-hawking ways. Kansas City had a whopping plus-11 turnover margin during its five-game win streak, and like Denver, it is unbeaten when winning the turnover battle (6-0).

Why I’m Taking the OVER

This game provides a quandary of sorts since both teams are capable of scoring points but equally capable in preventing points via giveaways. They are 1-2 in forcing turnovers and both rank in the top nine overall in points allowed. When that window is narrowed to the previous eight games, both teams are in the top five for points allowed.

And the Chiefs are the worst team in the NFL when it comes to hitting the over with a 2-8 mark. Yet in the six games between these AFC West rivals since Smith has been at quarterback for the Chiefs, the teams have combined to score at least 41 points in every game and between 41 and 44 points in three games at Denver. And despite Siemian’s inconsistencies in his first year under center, the Broncos have scored at least 20 points in all but one of his nine starts. Therefore, the recommendation to bettors is to play the OVER of 39.5 points at -110 at Bovada.lv for the game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos.

Chris AltrudaThis article was written by Chris Altruda

Chris Altruda has spent more than two decades as a sportswriter, first for ESPN SportsTicker in Jersey City, New Jersey, where he rose to the level of college sports coordinator and was NCAA Men's Basketball Columnist. From there, he moved onto The Associated Press, where Chris started as an editorial assistant in their MegaSports division in the AP's headquarters in New York City before taking on the role of Scores Manager. He most recently served as an editor for nearly 11 years for STATS' editorial department based in Northbrook, Illinois, writing game previews for all US professional and major college sports as well as the English Premier League and international soccer. Currently a freelancer, Chris is still working the international soccer beat and other assorted projects. A native New Yorker and graduate of Marquette University who still refers to them as the Warriors, Chris is now holding out hope the Jets will reach a Super Bowl in his lifetime since the Cubs proved miracles are possible by winning the 2016 World Series. Chris can be found on Twitter at @AlTruda73

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