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GB vs. SF Over/Under Predictions – 2020 NFC Championship

Green Bay Packers(14-3) @ San Francisco 49ers(14-3)

  • Where: Levi's Stadium. Santa Clara, CA
  • When: January 19, 2020 6:40 pm EST
  • Spread: Packers +7.5 (-110) vs. 49ers -7.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Packers (+265) vs. 49ers (-330)
  • Over / Under: Over 45.5 (-110) vs. Under 45.5 (-110)

The San Francisco 49ers (10-6-1 ATS) host the Green Bay Packers (11-6 ATS) at Levi’s Stadium in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday in what should be a closer game than many expect.

The home team is favored by more than a TD just like in the AFC Championship Game.

Considering the 49ers dominated the Packers in week 12 at home (37-8) already this season, I’m not surprised that this line opened up at SF by a TD at the start of the week.

Both of these teams had a bye during the Wild Card Round. The 49ers defeated the Vikings (27-10) and the Packers defeated the Seahawks (28-23) in the NFL Divisional Round last weekend.

Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers Odds Movement

The action on the point spread has been split down the middle this week. SF opened up as TD favs and the line has been bet up to -7.5 (-110) at the Bovada Sportsbook ($250 NFL Playoff Bonus).

I’m most interested in the over/under market in the NFC Championship Game.

The game total opened up at 45 points and is now at 45.5 points at most bookies. In the first H2H game this season these teams scored exactly 45 points, but I expect more points this time around.

Packers at 49ers NFC Championship Preview and Stats

SF have edges on both sides of the football – here’s how these teams stack up statistically:

2020 NFC Championship PredictionsOn paper, the 49ers have a huge edge offensively. However, Aaron Rodgers has plenty of experience in big games whereas Jimmy Garoppolo will be playing in his second career playoff game.

Apart from a solid TD drive in the 3Q, the Packers were terrible against SF in week 12. Rodgers only went 20/33 for 104 yards, 1 TD and 1 lost fumble in his worst game of the regular season.

Since that loss, GB have won six consecutive games and the defense has stepped up. The Packers are only allowing 15.7 PPG during their current six-game win streak, although the strength of schedule (SOS) hasn’t been too tough.

One problem in the first loss to SF was that Rodgers was sacked five times and running outside of the pocket on a regular basis because his offensive line failed to protect him.

Both teams come into this game healthy. George Kittle is listed as questionable with an ankle injury, but with a Super Bowl appearance on the line, I expect him to suit up and give it a go.

Kittle missed some time this season because of his ankle injury, but he has played since week 12 and he has posted 42 receptions, 528 receiving yards and 3 TDs in the 49ers last seven games.

WRs Allen Lazard (Ankle) and Geronimo Allison (Flu) are both listed as questionable for GB. Lazard won’t be 100% even if he suits up, but Allison is expected to be fine by Sunday.

Packers at 49ers Playoff Predictions – Money Line and Game Total

You’ll want some action on GB +7.5 (-110) this Sunday, but I also like betting a ½ unit on the Packers to win the game straight-up. We’re getting insane value on the ML in what I expect to be a close game.

The Rodgers to Adams connection has heated up the last month. In the Packers last four games, Adams has 4 TDs and at least 7+ receptions and 93+ receiving yards in every game.

With the defense having to focus on Adams, that’ll open up room for Aaron Jones. Can you believe that Jones has 21 TDs (18 Rushing / 3 Receiving) this season? He has quietly been a beast.

I don’t think Garoppolo has a chance to keep up with Rodgers through the air. Last week the Niners were able to dominate the Vikings by rushing the football 47 times for 186 yards and 2 TDs.

SF have been great at Levi’s Stadium (7-2 including the playoffs) this season, but they were better on the road (7-1). GB went 8-1 at home (including playoffs) and 6-2 when playing away from Lambeau.

Green Bay aren’t going to be able to completely shut down the Niners #2 scoring offense. In the first H2H game the 49ers scored 4 TDs and 3 FGs while only gaining 339 yards on offense.

I expect the Packers offense to look at a lot better in the rematch. Rodgers and the team have had revenge on their mind since the week 12 loss and now they have a chance in SF.

SF did a good job shutting down Kirk Cousins last week, but a large part of that success was that they were able to run all over the defense. That’s not going to happen this week.

The 49ers struggled defensively down the stretch. During the final four weeks of the regular season, SF allowed 31.8 PPG. They won three of those games, but the defense was shredded.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.

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