Houston Texans(0-0-0) @ Kansas City Chiefs(0-0-0)
- Where: Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City, MO
- When: September 10, 2020 8:00 pm EST
- Spread: Texans +10 (-110) vs. Chiefs -10 (-110)
- Moneyline: OTB
- Over / Under: Over 55 Points (-110) vs. Under 55 Points (-110)
With only the UFC and NASCAR back in America, there still isn’t a lot on the sports calendar.
However, it’s never too early to take a look at the betting lines for NFL week 1. By all reports, the NFL season is expected to start on time and some teams may even have fans present at games.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott stated last week that outdoor stadiums in the state could allow fans to attend games at 25% capacity. The NFL hasn’t finalized their plans yet on how this season will work in regards to fans. According to an NBC Sports report last week, the NFL is planning on operating stadiums at full capacity if approved by medical professionals, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty around how the season will work.
Expanded NFL Playoffs Starting in 2020
The NFL confirmed earlier in the year that the 2020 NFL playoffs will be expanded. There will now be 14 teams that qualify for the playoffs, which is one extra in the AFC and NFC.
We’re likely going to see a sub-.500 team make the playoffs for the first time since 2014, which is the year the Carolina Panthers won the NFC South with a 7-8-1 regular season record.
2020 NFL Offseason Biggest Moves (Trades/Signings)
There were quite a few big moves this off-season, but none bigger than Tom Brady leaving NE.
I honestly thought Brady would retire with the Patriots, but I was wrong. He signed with Tampa Bay and he has been reunited with Rob Gronkowski, making the Bucs a Super Bowl contender.
Here’s a quick breakdown of the biggest trades and signings during the 2020 NFL offseason:
- QB Tom Brady: Signed a two-year deal with the Buccaneers ($50 million guaranteed).
- WR DeAndre Hopkins: Traded from the Texans to Cardinals.
- QB Teddy Bridgewater: Signed a $63 million, three-year deal, with the Panthers.
- OT Jack Conklin: Signed a $42 million, three-year deal, with the Browns.
- DL Calais Campbell: Traded from the Jaguars to the Ravens.
- WR Stefon Diggs: Traded from the Vikings to the Bills.
- CB Darius Slay: Traded from the Lions to the Eagles.
- LB Cory Littleton: Signed a three-year, $36 million deal, with Las Vegas.
- DT DeForest Buckner: Traded from the 49ers to the Colts.
- QB Philip Rivers: Signed a one-year deal ($25 million) with the Colts.
There will be quite a few starting QBs playing for new teams in 2020, which has me excited.
Brady in TB could be insane with the WRs they have. I can’t wait to see how the Buccaneers passing offense looks like with Brady throwing to Gronk, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard.
I’m not nearly as high on the Rivers experiment in Indianapolis. Sure, he might throw for more yards than Jacoby Brissett threw for in 2019, but he’ll certainly throw more interceptions. In 2019, Brissett threw for 2942 yards (18 TDs / 6 INTs), while Rivers threw for 4615 yards (23 TDs and 18 INTs).
Bridgewater landed a starting role after playing well with the Saints in 2019. I’m interested to see how he does with Christian McCaffrey. The Panthers are definitely a team to watch in 2020.
2020 NFL Schedule Released
The 2020 NFL schedule was released in May. Since then bookies have been releasing odds on a lot of the match-ups this season, but today, we’re going to analyze the 2020 NFL week 1 odds.
- Houston Texans +10 (-110) vs. Kansas City Chiefs -10 (-110) – O/U 55 Points
- Chicago Bears +1.5 (-110) vs. Detroit Lions -1.5 (-110) – O/U 44 Points
- Cleveland Browns +8.5 (-105) vs. Baltimore Ravens -8.5 (-115) – O/U 48.5 Points
- Green Bay Packers +3 (+110) vs. Minnesota Vikings -3 (-130) – O/U 46.5 Points
- Indianapolis Colts -7 (-110) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars +7 (-110) – O/U 46 Points
- Las Vegas Raiders -1.5 (-115) vs. Carolina Panthers +1.5 (-105) – O/U 47 Points
- Miami Dolphins +6.5 (-110) vs. New England Patriots -6.5 (-110) – O/U 43.5 Points
- New York Jets +6 (-110) vs. Buffalo Bills -6 (-110) – O/U 40 Points
- Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 (-110) vs. Washington Redskins +6.5 (-110) – O/U 45 Points
- Seattle Seahawks -1 (-110) vs. Atlanta Falcons +1 (-110) – O/U 49 Points
- Los Angeles Chargers -3 (-110) vs. Cincinnati Bengals +3 (-110) – O/U 44.5 Points
- Arizona Cardinals +8 (-115) vs. San Francisco 49ers -8 (-105) – O/U 46 Points
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 (-110) vs. New Orleans Saints -4 (-110) – O/U 49.5 Points
- Dallas Cowboys -2.5 (-110) vs. Los Angeles Rams +2.5 (-110) – O/U 50 Points
- Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110) vs. New York Giants +3.5 (-110) – O/U 48 Points
- Tennessee Titans +2 (-110) vs. Denver Broncos -2 (-110) – O/U 42 Points
Let’s take a look at a few of the games that stand out to me.
The Browns getting more than a TD (+8.5) on the road against Baltimore stands out immediately to me, but I believe if we wait, we’ll get an even better line on the Browns.
The Browns and Ravens have split the head-to-head series the past two seasons. In 2019, the Browns went into Baltimore and won 40-25. Baker Mayfield is in a make or break season. The Browns went out and got him some elite protection and he has weapons. Now he has to produce.
Another early bet I’ve locked in is the Panthers money line. I’m not sure why the Raiders are favored on the road where they went 2-6 (4-4 ATS) last season. Bridgewater and McCaffrey will be able to move the football on Las Vegas and I expect the Panthers to rebound quickly from 2019.
To close out week 1, I’ve already locked in the Broncos -2 at home on Monday Night Football (MNF).
Drew Lock is the starting QB in Denver this season and after ending the season on a 4-1 win streak, the Broncos are primed to jump out of the gate quickly with their rejuvenated offense.