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Dolphins vs. Steelers Betting Lines, ATS Pick and Teaser Bet

Miami Dolphins(10–6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers(11–5)

  • Where: Heinz Field. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
  • When: January 8, 2017 1:05 pm EST
  • Spread: Dolphins +10 (-110) vs. Steelers -10 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Dolphins (+290) vs. Steelers (-360)
  • Over / Under: Over 47 (-110) vs. Under 47 (-110)

The playoff picture for 2016/17 is officially set, and has yielded two of the most disgusting AFC Wild Card games in recent memory. Consider this: While we’re not sure yet who the starting quarterbacks will be, between all of the potential quarterbacks that could start for an AFC team Wild Card weekend (Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Moore, Ryan Tannehill, Brock Osweiler, Tom Savage, Matt McGloin, and Connor Cook), only one of those quarterbacks has ever taken a snap in the postseason.

That quarterback, of course, is Super Bowl champion Ben Roethlisberger, whose Pittsburgh Steelers are playing the Miami Dolphins at home for the chance to go to Kansas City in the Divisional Round.

But bad football games can still hold good value for interested parties, if you know where to look. Let’s take a look at these two teams individually and see what value there may be in this matchup.

While my best bet in this AFC Wild Card game is to tease the Dolphins up to +16, I’m also betting a 1/2 unit on the Dolphins to cover the point spread (+10 Points) at the Bovada Sportsbook.

Miami Dolphins running out of steam

In the final three games of the season, which the Dolphins played after losing starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill in Week 14, the Dolphins lost just about all of the momentum they had left from their exciting 6-game win streak.

Think about the month of December for the Dolphins: Lose by 34 to the Ravens, barely beat the Cardinals at home (losing Tannehill in the process), beat up on the Jets, barely beat the Bills, and close out the season last week with a 21-point loss to the New England Patriots.

Odds-makers seem to also be picking up on this lack of momentum: With the Lions and Raiders, the Dolphins have the lowest Super Bowl odds of any playoff team, listed at 75-to-1 at the Bovada Sportsbook. Their odds of winning the AFC are even lower than the Raiders, however, at 40-to-1 (Oakland at +3300).

Pittsburgh Steelers better than Miami, but uninspiring nonetheless

Dolphins vs. Steelers Playoff PreviewThe best news for Steelers fans is the fact that it is entirely possible that all 22 starters could very possibly be healthy for this Wild Card game against the Dolphins. The only question mark is pass rush specialist Stephon Tuitt, who is dealing with a right knee sprain.

They’re going to need all the health they can get, as they are seriously lacking in momentum. While Pittsburgh has won 7 straight games, several of their wins were pretty ugly, including last week’s overtime win over the Cleveland Browns at home.

For this reason, I expected the Steelers Super Bowl or AFC Champion odds to be more favorable, but it turns out there is very little value: Pittsburgh is getting 8-to-1 odds at the Bovada sportsbook to win the Super Bowl, and is only +375 to win the AFC.

It seems to me that this is truly a testament to how weak the AFC playoff contenders are: Pittsburgh is the only real challenger to New England or Kansas City (the two winningest teams in football over the last two regular season), and they are not a very strong challenger at that.

In order to go on a run, Roethlisberger and the Steelers would have to get hot against the Dolphins at home. However, I’m not so sure that they have what it takes.

Why I’m throwing the Dolphins on a two-team teaser

Bet on the Dolphins +16 and Raiders +10 on a two-team teaser at Bovada.

Given that the Steelers are healthy and at home, and further given that the Dolphins and their backup quarterback have neither the confidence nor the ability to pull off the upset victory in this matchup, I like the Steelers to win.

However, the line is well-set at 10 points, and makes me very nervous. The scenario I find most likely in this game is that the Steelers will be up by between 7 and 14 points late in the fourth quarter, the Dolphins will get the ball back on offense looking to make a comeback, and Matt Moore will throw an interception.

With the line set at 16 points for a teaser, I find it much more likely that the Dolphins will cover. I’m throwing the Dolphins on a two-team teaser with the Raiders, who end up at +10 with the additional six points. With so many bad quarterbacks involved in these two matchups, invest in low-scoring games.

David HeinenThis article was written by David Heinen

David Heinen is a freelance psychology writer by day, inveterate NFL junkie by night. Born and raised on the Green Bay Packers, David is a die-hard Cheesehead, not to mention a cheese enthusiast in his spare time.

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