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Denver Broncos vs N.O. Saints Week 10 Over/Under Odds

Who: Denver Broncos (6-3) vs. New Orleans Saints (4-4)

When: Sunday, November 13, 2016. 1 p.m. EST

Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome. New Orleans, Louisiana

Over/Under: 49 at the Bovada Sportsbook

The New Orleans Saints will try to keep their offense rolling and pick up a fifth win in six games Sunday when they host the reigning Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos, who are trying to regroup following their worst defensive outing of the season.

The Saints have clawed back to .500 after an 0-3 start behind Drew Brees, averaging 32.6 points and 441.4 yards of total offense in the last five contests. Brees has completed 72.0% of his passes for 1,627 yards and 13 touchdowns in that span as New Orleans has comfortably hit the over three times in those five games following last weekend’s 41-23 victory at San Francisco.

New Orleans’ surge has put it second in the NFC South, 1 1/2 games behind Atanta, and in the thick of the wild-card race. The Saints have topped 500 yards of total offense three times this season and have averaged 30 points and 415 yards against AFC West teams.

Denver, meanwhile, allowed more than 23 points for the first time this year in its 30-20 setback at Oakland on Sunday night. The Broncos were gashed for a season-worst 218 rushing yards, allowed 397 overall and were unable to get their defense off the field, while the Raiders recorded 30 first downs and had the ball for nearly 42 minutes.

The loss dropped the Super Bowl champs one game behind Oakland in the competitive AFC West and into third in the division, one-half game behind Kansas City. The Broncos have dropped their last two road games and three of five overall since defending their title with a 4-0 start.

Can Brees Keep the Saints Moving on Offense?

The Saints lead the NFL in third-down conversions at a 53 percent clip and also are third in the league with only 13 of their 90 drives ending in 3-and-outs. New Orleans went 11 of 17 on 3rd down against the 49ers and has converted 60 percent of such plays (48 of 80) over its last five contests.

Brees will look to exploit a Broncos defense that ranks 28th on stopping opponents from converting on third down (35.1 percent), and also has the veteran poise to take what a stingy Denver defense who is ranked first against the pass, fourth in total defense and seventh in points allowed will give him underneath. The Broncos may again be without veteran cornerback Aqib Talib, who is day-to-day but has missed the last two games due to a back injury, while his backup Kayvon Webster is ailing with a hamstring injury.

Will Siemian Break Out for the Broncos?

The loss of running back C.J. Anderson to a knee injury has disrupted Denver offensively as it has totaled only 90 rushing yards the last two weeks while rookie Devontae Booker finds his footing in the backfield. Rookie quarterback Trevor Siemian has thrown for 559 yards and two touchdowns in those games but has also been responsible for four turnovers (two fumbles lost and two interceptions) and barely completed more than 50 percent of his passes.

However, the Saints’ shoddy pass defense, which has yielded 309.8 yards per game and 11 TDs as well as a league-worst 6.43 yards per play overall, could prove to be the perfect opponent for the Broncos signal-caller to have a big game.

Why I’m Taking the OVER on the Saints vs Broncos

Everything about this game screams offensive slugfest, from the Saints operating on all cylinders offensively behind Brees, even against a solid Broncos defense, to a Denver offense that should be able to get up and down the field consistently against a shaky New Orleans defense.

Both teams likely will be reliant on the passing game, which means the opportunity for both to run more plays from scrimmage. It also doesn’t hurt that both teams have quality kickers to bail them out for points if the offenses do bog down in the red zone.

Additionally, the Superdome has seen plenty of points in the four games the Saints have played there. Every Saints opponent has scored at least 20 points and teams have combined to average 67.5 points while hitting the over on three of four occasions. Even the one game that failed to reach the number, New Orleans’ 25-20 win over Seattle on Oct. 30 with an over/under of 50.5 at the Bovada Sportsbook, ended with the Seahawks at the Saints 10-yard line after Russell Wilson’s 4th-down pass fell incomplete.

Lastly, both teams are above .500 overall against the over/under, with Denver entering this contest 5-4-0 and New Orelans at 5-3-0, so the recommendation to players is to take the over at 49 points at the Bovada Sportsbook.

Chris AltrudaThis article was written by Chris Altruda

Chris Altruda has spent more than two decades as a sportswriter, first for ESPN SportsTicker in Jersey City, New Jersey, where he rose to the level of college sports coordinator and was NCAA Men's Basketball Columnist. From there, he moved onto The Associated Press, where Chris started as an editorial assistant in their MegaSports division in the AP's headquarters in New York City before taking on the role of Scores Manager. He most recently served as an editor for nearly 11 years for STATS' editorial department based in Northbrook, Illinois, writing game previews for all US professional and major college sports as well as the English Premier League and international soccer. Currently a freelancer, Chris is still working the international soccer beat and other assorted projects. A native New Yorker and graduate of Marquette University who still refers to them as the Warriors, Chris is now holding out hope the Jets will reach a Super Bowl in his lifetime since the Cubs proved miracles are possible by winning the 2016 World Series. Chris can be found on Twitter at @AlTruda73

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