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Colts Host Chiefs in AFC Wild Card Game on Saturday

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts Playoffs Preview

Start Time: Saturday, January 4th 2014 at 4:35pm ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana
Station: Watch Live on NBC

The Indianapolis Colts (11-5) won the AFC South and they’ll host the Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) who ended up 2nd in the AFC West. The wild card game on Saturday will pit two evenly matched teams against each other in what should be an extremely close match-up.

Betting Lines in KC @ IND

Live Odds at the Bovada Sportsbook

Indy has opened up as a –2.5 point favorite and the line has yet to move. I don’t expect the line to move at all in this one either, as these two teams are very evenly matched. The over/under line is O/U 46.5 points, which I think is a little high at the moment.

How the Colts Got Here

The Colts benefited from a weak division this season to win the AFC South. They were 6-0 in the division, but only 5-5 in their games outside of the AFC South, which is worrisome. On paper Indianapolis has problems on both sides of the football as well right now.

Indy has been average offensively and things have worsened since Reggie Wayne went out with an injury. The Colts are only scoring 24.4 PPG (14th) while averaging 232.8 PYPG (17th) and 108.9 RYPG (21st). Don’t expect them to explode against a tough KC defense.

Andrew Luck finished the season with an 87 QBR (18th). He only threw 23 TD passes while throwing 9 INT’s and he missed his #1 WR Wayne after his injury. T.Y. Hilton led the team during the regular season with 82 receptions, 1083 receiving yards and 5 TD’s.

Defensively the Colts have allowed 231.9 PYPG (13th) and 125.1 RYPG (26th), but they only give up 21 PPG (9th) thanks in large part to their +13 turnover margin. Indy beat the Chiefs 23-7 in week 16 and the main reason was because they won the TO battle 4-0.

How the Chiefs Got Here

Kansas City was also fortunate to have a +18 turnover margin this season because the defense has been playing poorly. KC has given up 247.6 PYPG (26th) and 120.2 RYPG (22nd), but they rank 6th in points allowed (19.1 PPG) because they force a lot of turnovers.

On offense the Chiefs did what most expected. They leaned on their running game (128.5 RYPG – 10th) and Jamaal Charles ended up finishing 3rd in rushing yards (1287) in the league. KC only throws for 208.8 PYPG (25th) on average, but Alex Smith has done his job.

Smith was signed to Kansas to limit turnovers and manage games. He only threw 7 INT’s (1.4% of his pass attempts). Smith has also been able to run the football effectively, as he is averaging 5.7 yards per attempt on 76 carries and he also has 1 rushing TD.

The game plan is simple for Kansas City and that’s to run the football with Charles and win the turnover battle. Charles rushed the football for 106 yards (1 TD) on just 13 carries in week 16 against the Colts, but I expect him to have closer to 30 carries this week.

Players That Have to Step Up

Fleener has stepped up this season and is 2nd on the team in receptions (52), receiving yards (608) and receiving touchdowns (4). He has great chemistry with Luck and he’ll need to catch a few passes at the very least this week, as Hilton will be doubled up a lot.

Charles is basically the Chiefs entire offense when you look at the stats. I already mentioned his rushing stats, but Charles also leads the team in catches (70), receiving yards (693) and touchdowns (7). For him to lead in all three of those stats as a RB is exceptional.

Chiefs vs. Colts Predictions

Kansas City started the season 9-0, but they ended the season with two straight losses including one against the Colts. I watched the game and the Chiefs were never in the game and you can be sure they’ll play better this weekend, but I don’t think they’ll win.

Indianapolis has started to turn it up at the right time as well. They have won three straight games and in those games the Colts have outscored their opponents 78-20. The defense is playing much better and Hilton has started to look like a #1 WR for the Colts.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.

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