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Chiefs vs. Steelers Betting Lines

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
When: 8:30pm EST. Monday, November 12, 2012
Where: Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

For week 10 Monday Night Football, the struggling Kansas City Chiefs 1-7 (2-6 ATS) are on the road to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers 5-3 (4-4 ATS). The Steelers are undefeated at Heinz Field this season (3-0), while the Chiefs have dropped their last 5 games. Although the Steelers are only +27 on net points, the Chiefs are a pitiful -107. This game has all the makings of an ass-whooping, and the Steelers are now favored by 12.5 points. The Chiefs offense vs. Steelers defense is a brutal matchup, and KC fans may want to prepare for doomsday coming on November 12th instead of December 21st.

Kansas City vs. Pittsburgh Betting Lines

US Friendly
US Friendly
+12.5 (-110)
-12.5 (-110)
+12.5 (-110)
-12.5 (-110)
o41 (-110) / u41 (-110)
o41 (-110) / u41 (-110)

My Pick: Steelers -12.5 (-110) at BetOnline.com

Despite being undefeated at home and on a 3-game win streak, the Steelers are still trailing the Ravens in the AFC North. They’ll be focused at home against the weaker Chiefs team, but with the spread so high bettors have to worry about a backdoor cover. The Chiefs vs. Steelers betting lines have been bouncing around this week, understandable for a mismatch like this. Timing is everything, and I encourage bettors to place their bets as soon as they see a line they like. You may not see it again before game time.

Will the Steelers Cover Against the Chiefs on MNF?

Betting a huge favorite on Monday Night Football usually isn’t a great idea. Both teams are generally pumped up for primetime and that usually results in close games. However, the Chiefs have been 5-game slide and they have nothing to be happy about. Pittsburgh is still playing for something, and MNF will have them ready to go.

Pittsburgh hasn’t blown out many teams, but two of their 3 home games (3-0) were solid wins. In week 2 the Steelers beat the Jets 27-10, and in week 8 they beat the Redskins 27-12. The Steelers other home win was 16-14 vs. PHI.

Despite a depleted defensive unit which includes an injured Troy Polamalu, Pittsburgh still ranks 1st against the pass (174 PYPG), 8th against the run (88.6 RYPG), and 7th in points against (20.5 PPG). The Chiefs are going to have plenty of trouble moving the football.

The only thing that has worked for the Chiefs offense this year is their 3rd ranked rushing attack (149.9 RYPG). KC is amongst the worst in the NFL at passing (207.6 PYPG – 25th) and points scored (16.6 PPG – 29th).

Offensively the Steelers have finally started to get their run game going, and that’s why they’re winning. A Pittsburgh RB has run for 100+ rushing yards in the L3 games for the Steelers, and if they do that this week they should cover the -12.5 point spread.

The Chiefs rank 23rd against the run (126 RYPG) and the Steelers should be able to find holes in the d-line. When the run game is working, Big Ben is able to focus on making fewer plays and it has helped him play more consistently the past few weeks.

Betting on KC / Pittsburgh Point Spread

The Chiefs / Steelers point spread opened at -13.5 in favor of the Steelers, but it was down to -11.5 points before it came back to where it is now, at -12.5. Despite the fact that most of the early action has been coming in on Pittsburgh. When the point spread got down to 11.5, I expected it to come back to the 12.5 – 13 range, and I think that’s where it’ll close at game time.

Bet on the Steelers -12.5 (-110) at BetOnline.com

Pittsburgh has already blown out two teams at home and the Chiefs are even worse than the Jets and Redskins. This should be an easy win for Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football, but you never know with a point spread this big.

I expect the Steelers to get the run game going early while working in play action passes deep. I don’t expect the Chiefs to score much at Heinz Field, but I’m sure they’ll be able to score a few FG’s. If the Steelers can hit 28 points they should cover the point spread.

Chiefs vs. Steelers Money Line

With a point spread this big, the money line is tough to bet on. The best Chiefs money line is +495 at BetOnline, but even at those odds I don’t see value. The Chiefs have such a slim chance of winning this that I would need something more like +600 to even consider this wager.

The best Steelers money line is -600 at JustBet.cx. Although I think the Steelers win this enough to give us value on the money line, I never like to risk $6 to win $1. There’s a reason they play the game, and I greatly prefer the point spread and -110.

KC vs. Pitt. Over/Under

At the time I write this (Sunday at 3:00am EST), the KC vs Pitt. over/under is 41 (-110) on either side at BetOnline and JustBet.

My pick for the Chiefs vs. Steelers over/under is: u41 (-110) at BetOnline.com

The Steelers have scored 23 – 31 in 6 of their 8 games this year, and in each of their last 4 games. Considering that essentially every other team in the NFL is better than the Chiefs, those stats do matter. The Chiefs are scoring just 16.6 points/game, and 6, 10, 16, and 13 points in their last four games.

The Steelers defense is holding opponents to 20.5 PPG, good for 7th in the NFL. The Chiefs are giving up an even 30 PPG, ranking 29th. I’m not telling you anything you didn’t already know, but the Steelers are much better on both sides of the ball.

At home on MNF, I’m expecting a game score in the range of 27-33 for the Steelers, and 6-12 points for the Chiefs. This gives us a total in the range of 33-45, for a fair edge on the under. I don’t think the Chiefs will muster more than 10 against this Steelers defense, which allows Pittsburgh to score up to 30.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.

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