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Chargers vs. Broncos Betting Lines

San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
When: 4:25pm EST. Sunday, November 18, 2012
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Denver, Colorado

If they want to stay in the playoff hunt, the San Diego Chargers 4-5 (4-5 ATS) need to win this Sunday against the Denver Broncos 6-3 (6-3 ATS). In first and second place in the AFC West right now, a Chargers win would make the division much more interesting. A Denver win all but promises a division championship, with a 3-game lead and just 6 weeks left in the season.

This week 11 game will be played at Mile High, where the Broncos have a 3-1 record at home (3-1 ATS). The Broncos knocked off the Steelers, Raiders and Saints at home, while losing to the Houston Texans. San Diego is 2-3 on the road (2-3 ATS) and will have to pick it up on Sunday.

Betting Lines for Broncos vs. Chargers

US Friendly
US Friendly
+8.5 (-110)
-8.5 (-110)
+7.5 (-110)
-7.5 (-110)
o48.5 (-110) / u48.5 (-110)
o48.5 (-110) / u48.5 (-110)

The Denver Broncos opened as -6.5 point favorites, but the spread is now -7.5 to -8.5 points depending on where you bet. You can bet on the Broncos -7.5 (-110) at JustBet.cx, or the Chargers +8.5 (-110) at BetOnline.com.

The best Chargers vs. Broncos money line is Denver -350 (JustBet) or Chargers +295 (BetOnline). I don’t see value on the ML in this one. I expect the Broncos to win this game at home, but -350 is too much to pay.

Will the Chargers Beat the Spread?

Denver is 4-0 in their last 4 games, and also 4-0 ATS. They’re also 3-1 and 3-1 ATS in their L4 games against San Diego. The Chargers come into this game 1-4 and 1-4 ATS in their L5 games this season. Although SD is 5-1 in their last 6 games at Mile High, this is a much better Broncos team than they’ve faced in recent years. Although I like the Broncos in this game I don’t like the spread. The Chargers have obviously had their problems this year, but they’re still +18 in net points with the ability to keep it close.

Now that the schedule has gotten easier for Denver, they’ve been smoking teams in recent weeks. The Broncos big change came in their week 6 match-up between these two teams, where they made a huge 2nd half comeback. They haven’t looked back since.

San Diego came out strong in the week 6 game, but let go of a 24-0 lead. Rivers had been solid in the 1st half, but everything unravelled in the 2nd half as Rivers turned the football over six times. On the season however, the Chargers actually rank slightly better in turnover margin than the Broncos (0.2 vs. 0.4). If SD wins the TO battle they should be able to cover the spread, with an outside shot to win SU.

San Diego has the #2 ranked rushing defense in the NFL, giving up just 82.9 yards/game. They should be effective against Broncos RB Willis McGahee, and could cause a fumble or two (he has 5 fumbles on the season). Of course that helps, but the Chargers will need to focus even more attention on disrupting Peyton Manning. Nobody is going to ‘stop’ Manning, but pressure could force him to go to his #21 ranked run game more often. This would keep the game close and give San Diego a chance to win SU.

The real problem here is that Manning and his receiving corps continues to get better every week, and the Broncos have a lot of weapons now. Although I like the Chargers to beat the spread, I also won’t be surprised if the Broncos win it by 14+. This could be one of the more risky bets in week 10, so if you don’t feel comfortable in this one, I’d recommend you stay away entirely.

Peyton Manning is the lifeblood of any offense, and that’s why it’s critical that the Chargers pressure him. The other key to this game will be turnovers. I expect the Chargers run defense to see McGahee as an opportunity to cause turnovers, and this could be the difference in the Chargers covering the spread. If the spread was under a touchdown, I’d take the Broncos all day long. However, getting +8.5 on the Chargers is looking good to me.

San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos Best Bet

Bet on San Diego Chargers +8.5 (-110) at BetOnline.com

The Chargers vs. Broncos betting line is too high for my liking. Denver could blowout the Chargers, but I think there’s more value on the Chargers in a desperate situation. San Diego needs to win this game, and giving them +8.5 is enough for me to bet them.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.

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