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Broncos vs. Raiders Betting Lines

Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders

When: Week 14, Thursday Night Football. 8:20pm EST. Dec. 6, 2012
Where: O.Co Coliseum in Oakland, CA.

In a rivalry like this, it doesn’t matter that one team has locked up the division and the other is out of it. Although it might seem like nothing is on the line, the players and fans would tell you something different. The Broncos and Raiders hate each other, and that alone makes it a fun game for Thursday Night Football.

The Denver Broncos are also looking to improve their playoff seed, and the Oakland Raiders are playing for pride. A home game for the Raiders, a win against the Broncos would mean Christmas came early this year. As of Monday night, the Broncos are favored by -10.5 points, a large spread to cover on the road.

Denver vs. Oakland Betting Lines

The Broncos vs Raiders point spread hasn’t changed much since the line opened. It opened with the Broncos -10.5 (-103 to -110) at most mobile sportsbooks. Right now (Wednesday morning), we’re paying a little less to get the Broncos, but the spread is still 10.5 points. After opening at 49.5 points, the over/under has come down to 48 (-110) at BetOnline and JustBet.

US Friendly
US Friendly
-10.5 (+100)
+10.5 (-120)
-10.5 (-105)
+10.5 (-115)
o48 (-110) / u48 (-110)
o48 (-110) / u48 (-110)

My Broncos vs. Raiders Picks

In a rivalry road game for the Broncos, I don’t like the hook. I’d like to take the Broncos -10 on the spread hoping for a push at worst, but we aren’t there yet. This game has the potential for a blowout, but I expect the Raiders to play with more motivation than in past weeks and to keep it within 10 points.

I think we’ll see the spread come down to an even 10 points, so I’m going to wait and see where the line goes before placing my bet. If you want to take the Raiders and the points, I’d get my bet in right away while you can still get them +10.5 (-115) at JustBet.cx. If you’re looking to bet on the Broncos, keep an eye on the line and see if the spread comes down a bit.

Denver Broncos Stats

Overall: 9-3
Road: 4-2
ATS: 7-5
Road ATS: 3-3
Favorite ATS: 6-2
Division: 4-0
Over/Under: 8-4
Streak: 7W
Net Points: +105
Points Per Game: 29.1 PPG (#3)
Points Allowed: 20.3 PPG (#10)
Take-Aways / Give-Aways: -3 overall. 19 T/A (14 INT’s, 5 fumbles) / 22 G/A (9 INT’s, 13 fumbles)

Broncos Offensive Stats

Total Yards/Game: 386.9 (#5)
Passing Yards Per Game: 283.7 PYPG (#7)
Rushing Yards per Game: 103.2 RYPG (#22)
3rd Down: 68/156 (44%)

Broncos Defensive Stats

Total Yards/Game: 308.2 (#3)
Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 211.8 PYPG (#6)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 96.4 RYPG (#7)

Oakland Raiders Stats

Overall: 3-9
Home: 2-4
ATS: 3-9
Home ATS: 1-5
Dog ATS: 3-5
Division: 1-2
Over/Under: 5-6-1
Streak: 5L
Net Points: -141
Points Per Game: 19.6 PPG (#23)
Points Allowed: 31.3 PPG (#32)
Take-Aways / Give-Aways: -6 overall. 15 T/A (8 INT’s, 7 fumbles) / 21 G/A (13 INT’s, 8 fumbles)

Raiders Offensive Stats

Total Yards/Game: 361.8 (#13)
Passing Yards Per Game: 278.9 PYPG (#8)
Rushing Yards per Game: 82.8 RYPG (#29)
3rd Down: 56/165 (34%)

Raiders Defensive Stats

Total Yards/Game: 387 (#28)
Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 256.6 PYPG (#25)
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 130.4 RYPG (#28)

Denver vs. Oakland Matchup & Betting Analysis

The Broncos defense has the advantage against both the run and pass. However, the Raiders passing offense is better than most people realize. The Raiders rushing offense is so bad that they have no choice but to pass the ball – especially if they get down early.

The Broncos rushing offense hasn’t been very good either, and Peyton Manning told reporters that head coach John Fox has made the run game a focus of this weeks practice. With bad weather and playoff seasons coming, the run game has to get better. Against this weak Raiders rushing defense, this could be a great opportunity to work on the run game and get prepared for the playoffs. This could be the difference of a blowout, or a game that the Raiders can cover.

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Since the Broncos have clinched the AFC West, this is the time for them to prepare for tougher games they’ll face in the playoffs. Having the info about the Broncos desire to work on the run game, I expect this to be a lower scoring, eat-up-the-clock type of game.

The Broncos need to find out what rookie RB Ronnie Hillman and resurrected Knowshon Moreno are really capable of, and this is the perfect time to test them. Both should be productive against this rushing defense, which would also build confidence in each of these players (and the O-line). Seems like the perfect time & matchup to put the pressure on their RB’s. With the Broncos vs. Raiders over/under already dropping 1.5 points since last night, it looks like others are expecting this too.

Although the Raiders have been effective passing the ball, they’ll have their work cut-out for them against the Broncos 6th ranked passing D. Future Hall of Famer Champ Bailey, along with the rest of the Broncos secondary have kept opponents limited to just 211.8 PYPG. They’ve intercepted opponents 14 times and they don’t give up a lot of big plays.

I’m expecting the Broncos to run the ball more, and score below their seasonal average of 29.1 PPG. I have them in the range of 23-26, and the Raiders in the range of 16-17. A few field goals and a TD for the Raiders sounds about right to me.

The one thing that worries me is if we have a close game heading into the middle of the 3rd quarter. If we do, the Broncos are likely to give the RB’s fewer opportunities, and go back to the passing game. Although the Broncos want to work on the run game, a loss against the Raiders would be a let-down they don’t want heading into the final portion of the season. WR Demaryius Thomas has become a huge playmaker that the Raiders secondary will have trouble against, and Eric Decker is a big threat as well. If Peyton wants to get some quick points on the board, look for these guys to do some damage….and kiss away that bet on the Raiders.

This is exactly why I’m waiting to see if I can get the Broncos -10 before I place my bet. Heading into the 3rd quarter, the Broncos will want to put this in the bank. If the Raiders can’t move the ball effectively enough to get a couple of TD’s, the Broncos should have it covered before the start of the 4th quarter.

Broncos vs. Raiders Point Spread Pick

Although the Broncos are the #3 scoring team in the NFL and outscore the Raiders by 9.5 PPG, this is a rivalry road game for the Broncos. Peyton Manning said he wanted to work on the run game more this week, and if that’s true this might not be the blowout some are expecting it to be. Either way, asking the Broncos to cover 10.5 points on the road (even against the Raiders) is asking a lot.

The Broncos won the week 4 matchup between these teams in a 37-6 blowout. But, that was a home game for the Broncos, and obviously the Raiders are embarrassed by that effort. They don’t have much chance to win, but I think they’ll play motivated at home.

Unless the Broncos defense scores, I don’t think they’ll cover this one. At the current spread I would have to take the Raiders and the 10.5 points. With that said, I’m going to wait and see if I can get the Broncos -10 to get rid of the hook. If I can, I’ll go with Denver. If the point spread stays at 10.5, I’ll take the Raiders.

– Best Broncos Point Spread: -10.5 (+100) at BetOnline.com

– Best Raiders Point Spread: +10.5 (-115) at JustBet.cx

Broncos at Raiders Money Line

There’s nothing about the Broncos/Raiders money line that makes me want to make a bet here. We have to pay -640 on the Broncos money line, which is giving us no value at all. The Raiders money line is +500, which would be too good to pass in most Broncos/Raiders games. However, the Broncos should win this game without too much trouble, and even +500 isn’t enough to get me to take the Raiders.

In divisional rivalry games, anything can happen. But we have to bet based on odds, and considering how these teams have been playing in recent weeks, I don’t see how the Raiders win this SU.

Denver vs. Oakland Over/Under Pick

As mentioned above, the Broncos vs. Raiders over/under has already come down 1.5 points since it opened. We’re now down to 48 points, but for a couple of reasons I still like the under.

One, I expect the Broncos to run more often than they usually do. If we didn’t know they were focusing on improving the run game, I’d be more worried about a huge scoring day for the Broncos.

Second, the Broncos passing defense is very good. Carson Palmer could get picked off a couple of times, and if the Broncos don’t turn those into pick-6’s and they continue to work on their run game on offense, this would also point to a low scoring affair.

I know that everyone is worried about the Broncos potentially putting up 30 or 40 points against the Raiders, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. They put up 37 in the first meeting this year, but the Broncos goals were different then.

I’m taking under 48 (-110) at BetOnline.com.

This article was written by Jess

Jess is the editor of MobileSportsBetting.com. His job duties include everything nobody else is doing, and making sure it all gets done on time. When he gets a chance, Jess loves to write about NFL, MLB, Formula 1, and tennis betting.

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