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Broncos vs. Bengals Betting Lines

Pittsburgh Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals
When: 1:00pm EST. Sunday, November 4, 2012
Where: Paul Brown Stadium. Cincinnati, Ohio

This week 9 NFL match-up on 11/4 between the Denver Broncos 4-3 (4-3 ATS) and Cincinnati Bengals 3-4 (2-4-1 ATS) almost seems too easy, as the Broncos have been installed as a small road favorite against the struggling Bengals.

The Broncos remain 1st in the AFC West, and seem to be improving every week. Cincinnati is 3rd in the AFC North, and have lost their last three games. Unless they can find a miracle, the Bengals aren’t going to beat the Ravens and Steelers for a playoff spot. Being a road game for the Broncos, they’re only favored by 4 points.

Denver vs. Cincinnati Betting Lines – Week 9, Nov. 4, 2012

The Broncos vs Bengals betting lines haven’t moved much since they opened. Denver opened as a -3.5 point favorite and they’ve moved to -4 at the time I write this (Saturday at 3:00pm EST). This is one of my favorite NFL picks of the week, and I recommend the Broncos -4 (-110) at BetOnline.com.

US Friendly
US Friendly
-4 (-110)
+4 (-110)
-4 (-110)
+4 (-110)
o48 (-110) / u48 (-110)
o48 (-110) / u48 (-110)

Why Will the Broncos Beat the Bengals?

The #1 reason why the Broncos will cover the point spread is because of Peyton Manning. Heading into week 9, Manning’s QB rating is 109.0 (#1 in the NFL), throwing for 2113 passing yards, 17 TD’s and just 4 INT’s, which includes just 1 INT in his L4 games. The other 3 INT’s came in one flukey quarter in week 2.

Denver is now on a 2-game win streak, which includes victories over SD (35-24) and NO (34-14). Peyton has thrown for over 300+ passing yards in each of the Broncos L5 games, and against the Bengals 16th ranked passing defense (233.1 PYPG) he could make it six in a row.

Willis McGahee just had his biggest game of the season against the Saints where he rushed for 122 yards and 1 TD on 23 carries. If he gets the ball 20+ times again this week, he’ll rush for 100+ yards against the Bengals 22nd ranked rushing defense (giving up 124 RYPG). What’s worse is that the Bengals have given up 9 rushing TD’s already.

Last week against the Saints, Broncos rookie RB Ronnie Hillman also proved he can carry the rock, gaining 86 yards on 14 carries (6.1 yards/carry). If he continues to improve, Hillman could become an important key for the Broncos as the season gets older, and the 31 year old McGahee starts to wear down. For now, he can provide McGahee some rest between downs, and the Broncos another legitimate back they can count on.

Cincinnati really needed their bye week after losing 3 in a row. Although they started the season 4-0, the last three weeks have likely doomed their playoff potential – but it’s not over yet. QB Andy Dalton has struggled a lot lately and he’s turning the football over too much. In the last 3 games, the Bengals have turned the football over 8X, six of those from Dalton INT’s.

On the year, Dalton is 156/243 (64.2%) for 1831 yards, 13 TD’s and 10 INT’s. He has yet to have a game without throwing an interception, which could spell bad news against this very good, and improving Broncos secondary. The Broncos passing defense comes in ranked 8th against the pass, giving up just 213.3 yards per game. Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil should put pressure on Dalton, causing Dalton to make some costly mistakes. Dalton has also been sacked 17 times through the Bengals first 7 games, and the Broncos will look to add to that total. If the Bengals are going to have a shot in this game, their O-line will have to have their best game of the season. Unfortunately for them, I don’t see that happening.

Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals Picks: 11/4/2012

Bet the Denver Broncos -4 (-110) at BetOnline

My prediction is the Broncos to cover the point spread, but I recommend betting it now while the line is still -4 (-110). I’m not the only one thinking this is an easy cover for the Broncos, and I expect the betting lines to favor them more as we get closer to game time.

Denver is only 1-2 on the road, but they won their last road game against the Chargers. Also, the two road losses they had were against the Falcons and Patriots, both tough games. The Bengals aren’t on the same level as these teams and the Broncos should win easily.

Broncos vs. Bengals Money Line

Right now, the 11/4 Broncos vs. Bengals money line is Broncos -190 and Bengals +167. I prefer giving up the points over -190 on the Broncos money line because I think Denver wins this by 7+. I don’t see any value here.

I don’t think the Bengals win this game often enough to justify +165 on the money line. If you think this game will be closer than I do, I’d recommend taking the Bengals point spread and paying -110 for it. With all of this said, I expect the Bengals money line to get more attractive as we get closer to game time, so if you like their chances, I’d wait until Sunday to see if the odds improve.

Over/Under for Denver vs. Cincy

The over/under for the Broncos vs Bengals Nov. 4, 2012 week 9 game is currently 48 (-110) on either side at BetOnline and JustBet. My pick for the Denver vs Cincinnati over/under is 1/2 unit on u48 (-110) at BetOnline.

The Denver Broncos rank 4th in the NFL, scoring an average of 29.1 points per game. The Bengals are averaging 23.7 points per game (14th in the NFL). The Broncos are giving up 21.7 points per game, while the Bengals are allowing 26.7. Without considering details of the game and going just off of stats, we’ve got an average of 52.8 points per game on offense, and 48.4 on defense.

In this one, I expect the Broncos to go for 27-33 points, and the Bengals to go for something like 17-21. This puts us in a range of 40 to 54 points, which puts the Broncos vs. Bengals over/under almost smack-dab in the middle. Based on my scoring predictions, we have a slight edge on the under, but it’s very close. Personally, I’m going to bet 1/2 unit on the under, and hope both defenses play well.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.

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