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Broncos Favored Over Chiefs on SNF in Week 13

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Preview

Start Time: Sunday, November 30th 2014 at 8:30pm ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
Station: NBC

The Denver Broncos 8-3 (5-6 ATS) need a big road win against the Kansas City Chiefs 7-4 (8-3 ATS) at Arrowhead on primetime this Sunday night. Right now the Broncos are ahead of the Chiefs in the AFC West, but a loss here could come back to haunt them.

Denver barely escaped Mile High with a win over the Dolphins (39-36) while Kansas somehow lost to Oakland (24-20) last week. The Chiefs come into this game with a 4-1 home record whereas the Broncos are a miserable 2-3 on the road heading into this one.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Point Spread & Over/Under Odds

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We’re not going to see much movement on this point spread. It has been moving up slightly in favor of the Broncos at a few shops, but we won’t see the spread higher than –2.5 by kick-off. The over/under is unlikely to move much either at this point in the week.

DEN @ KC Stats Pack

Denver definitely has the edge on offense in this one and both defenses are fairly close in my opinion. Kansas may have the better defense at this point in the season, but the Broncos have been improving and they have a ton of talent on the defense this year.

Three Reasons to Bet on Denver to Beat Kansas City

The Broncos have won the last five H2H games between these division rivals and that includes two wins at Arrowhead. In those five match-ups the Broncos won by a TD or more in each one. I’m a little surprised that the bookies have released this line at –1 only.

Kansas is allowing 129.4 RYPG (26th) and that’s not acceptable for a team that relies so heavily on the defense. If you can’t stop the run completely against the Broncos you have little chance to win because if the run game gets going it opens up the field.

Last week the Broncos rushed for over 200 rushing yards, as C.J. Anderson exploded for 167 yards on the ground. Denver averages 100.0 RYPG (20th), but look for them to lean on the run game against the Chiefs early on to try and pick up some easy yards.

The Chiefs rely heavily on their run game (137.1 RYPG – 4th), as they only average 189.5 PYPG (31st). The problem for them is that the Broncos rank 2nd against the run (75.5 RYPG) and it’s unlikely that Jamaal Charles or Knile Davis will find much running room.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Predictions

I expect this game to come down to the run game of both teams and the Broncos should win that battle on both sides of the football this weekend. Neither pass game is likely to get rolling in this match-up because both defenses have a strong secondary unit.

The Broncos are only allowing 240.5 PYPG (15th) and the Chiefs are allowing a league-best 198.9 PYPG. Denver averages 316.3 PYPG (2nd) and has the way better pass game, but Peyton Manning may struggle a bit against this Chiefs pass defense.

These two played back in week 2 at Mile High and the Broncos won 24-17 in a close game. Manning had 3 TD passes and was nearly perfect, but playing in Arrowhead is tough. This will be close, but Denver wins a thriller and builds their lead in the AFC West.

Julius Thomas may be out, so keep that in mind when setting your fantasy line-ups. The Broncos have too many weapons at WR to miss their TE too much in this game. If Thomas is out it just means Demariyus Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders will step up.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.

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