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Boise State vs. Oregon State: 2013 Hawaii Bowl Preview

When: Tuesday, December 24th 2013 at 8:00pm ET
Where: Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, Hawaii
Watch: Live on ESPN

Boise State 8-4 (6-2 Mountain West) meets up with Oregon State 6-6 (4-5 Pac 12) in the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve. If you need a break from the family for a few hours this should be an interesting match-up to watch despite both teams having a bad year in CFB.

The Broncos have had a rough season. Boise isn’t used to losing four games. Since 2008 the Broncos have finished with a maximum of 2 losses during the season. The Beavers also took a step back this season after finishing last season with a 9-4 overall record.

For the last three years Boise State has played in the Maaco Bowl in Las Vegas and they’ve won all three games. Oregon State missed out on a bowl game in 2010 and 2011, but last year they earned an invite to Alamo Bowl where they lost to the Longhorns (31-27).

Oregon State vs. Boise State Bowl Odds

Betting Lines From the Bovada Sportsbook.

A lot of the betting action has yet to take place in this match-up, but everyone has taken the Beavers at this point. The action is very one-sided (91%) on Oregon State and we’ve seen the opening line of –2.5 points move up to the key number of –3 points already.

Will Sean Mannion & Brandin Cooks Dominate

Sean Mannion and Brandin Cooks have been the most important players on the Beavers. Oregon State hasn’t done well running the football (86 RYPG – 118th), but they have one of the best passing attacks (382.1 PYPG – 3rd) in the nation thanks to Mannion.

Mannion ranks 2nd in the nation in the passing yards (4403) and 3rd in the nation in passing touchdowns (36). One area he needs to improve on is his accuracy though. Mannion has thrown 14 interceptions this year, which is bad when compared to other top QB’s.

Cooks has more receiving yards than anyone else in the country (1670). He has 120 receptions and 15 TD’s as well. No one on Boise is going to be able to stop Cooks. The Broncos only allow 248.4 PYPG, but they haven’t had to go up against a WR like Cooks yet.

Can Jay Ajayi Establish the Run for the Broncos

When you look at the Oregon State defense they can stop the pass (215.6 PYPG – 31st), but they have a lot of trouble stopping the run (194.6 RYPG – 87th). Boise has one of the best RB’s in the nation. Jay Ajayi has 226 carries for 1328 rushing yards and 17 TD’s.

Boise State has had a balanced offense this season that ranks 31st in passing yards (269 PYPG) and 32nd in rushing yards (201.8 RYPG). They’ve scored 38.8 PPG (17th), but that was against a weak schedule that didn’t include a single ranked opponent this year.

Passing on the Beavers will be tough for Boise and their best bet to win this game is to run the football with Ajayi. He has had a huge season and he has the speed to move the chains against a suspect Oregon State front seven that often misses assignments.

Which Team Will Win the Turnover Battle?

Both teams have a similar turnover margin and the team that wins the TO battle will likely win this match-up. Boise State has a –0.1 TO margin (65th) while Oregon State ranks slightly better with a TO margin of +0.3 (40th). Both teams have to protect the football.

Beavers vs. Broncos Predictions

Betting on Boise State at +3 is the best bet in what should be an exciting game to watch on Christmas Eve. Boise should be able to get Ajayi going early against a questionable Beavers run defense and once they get a lead they are a tough team to come back on.

Oregon State isn’t excited about playing in the Hawaii Bowl either. They barely qualified for a bowl game this year and right now they’re on a 5-game losing streak. Their schedule has been tough, but I think the Broncos will want to win this game more.

These two teams rarely play each other, but Boise State is on a 2-game win streak with their last win coming in 2010. Teams know that if they focus on Cooks and shutdown the Beavers pass game they struggle to score points, which has been evident lately.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.

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