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Bills vs. Colts Over/Under

Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts
When: 1:00pm EST. Sunday, November 25, 2012
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium. Indianapolis, IN.

Along with the Falcons/Buc’s game, the over/under of 51 points in this Bills/Colts matchup is the highest this Sunday. That’s why I wanted to talk about this bet for week 12 – Bills vs. Colts isn’t necessarily a game that makes you think ‘high scoring’, and I wanted to see if the under holds some value for bettors.

The Colts are producing 21 points/game this year, while the Bills are scoring 23. The Colts are allowing 26 points/game, while the Bills are allowing a sky-high 29.9 PPG. So, this Bills vs. Colts over/under is all about the defenses, and predicting if either of them will step it up.

Buffalo vs. Indy Over/Under Odds

As you can see below, the Bills vs. Colts over/under is 51 (-110) on either side right now (Friday night at 7:30pm EST). I’m taking Under 51 (-110) at BetOnline.com

BetOnline.com
US Friendly
Spread
Money
Bills
Colts
+3 (-120)
-3 (+100)
+125
-145
Over/Under
o51 (-110) / u51 (-110)

At the time I’m writing this article, the JustBet.cx lines are busted (some technical issues they’re having), and Bovada.lv has the exact same lines at BetOnline. Since BetOnline is the best book for US bettors, they’re the only ones I’ve listed here. If you want to bet, Betonline also offers mobile gambling for all major US sports, and they accept Visa credit & debit cards for making deposits.

Over/Under Analysis for Bills vs. Colts

Will the offenses break out, and will the defenses break? Bills DE Mario Williams should be back for this game, and if he’s anywhere near 100% he’ll be a factor in this game. He had a decent game against the Dolphins last week, and his cast might be removed before this one. If so, this is trouble for Andrew Luck, who will have more pressure than he’d like.

For the most part, the Bills scoring has been very predictable this year, scoring against teams they’re supposed to, and not scoring against teams they’re not supposed to. Based on that somewhat vague idea alone, the Bills should have a day in the 21-27 range. The Colts have had some less-predictable results, with a few odd games this year.

In week 5, the Colts put up 30 against the Packers, who have been giving up an average of just 20.7 PPG. In week 7 they posted 17 against Cleveland, probably a TD short of expectations. The following week they played the Titans, who give up the second-most points in the NFL (31.1 PPG), but the Colts only scored 19. Since then, the Colts offense has been about as predicted, although their defense completely broke down against the Patriots last week (lost 59-24).

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Now that I’ve got the nearly-pointless (yet still a bit interesting) information out there, I expect the Bills to run, run, run on Sunday. The Colts rushing defense ranks 21st in the league, giving up 119.8 RYPG, while the Bills have an excellent running game.

When he’s been given the ball, RB C.J. Spiller has been a beast this year, averaging 6.6 yards/carry. Spiller will be starting, and Fred Jackson should get most of the work inside the red zone. They have 1021 rushing yards and 7 TD’s between them this year, and I think we’ll see a heavier dose of them in this game. If I’m right, the Bills running game will eat time off the clock, and give Luck fewer chances to score. With that said, Spiller’s ability to break a big play could actually work against us. Running and receiving, Spiller has broken sixteen 20+ yard plays this year – an insane number.

For the Colts, the running game is about average, more of a support system for the passing game. The Colts will stick to their passing game, especially against this 18th ranked passing defense who’s given up 19 passing TD’s this year. As of Friday night, it looks like the Colts WR’s and TE’s will all be playing, giving Luck all of his usual weapons. I expect to see a lot of the same, which is a heavy dose of Reggie Wayne, Donnie Avery, Dwayne Allen, and T.Y. Hilton. TE Coby Fleener might be back this week, but even if he is, I wouldn’t expect too much from him.

How will Luck and his WR’s match-up against the Bills secondary? Simple answer: Very well. The Bills have proven an inability to beat good passing offenses, and this Colts passing game is plenty good enough to beat them. The Colts will get their points from the passing game, and the Bills will need a couple of big defensive plays for under bets to win.

The good news for under bettors is that the Colts O-line hasn’t been able to protect their QB, giving up 67 hits. With that said, Luck has proven his ability to be elusive, being sacked a relatively low 22 times (relative to the pressure he’s had on him).

Turnovers will also have a factor in this game. They’re going to come, but it’s a matter of what happens as a result. The Bills are -7 in take-aways vs give-aways, while the Colts are a paltry -13. Turnovers can win or lose an over/under bet, and this is something that is hard to predict. With these defenses, I tend to think turnovers will cause more of a grinding, lower scoring game, rather than a game where TO’s turn into pick-6’s. Plus, if the Bills win the turnover battle, this is more likely than if the Colts win the TO battle.

Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts O/U Pick

My Pick: Under 51 (-110) at BetOnline.com

The Bills vs. Colts over/under is a bet of likelihoods. As the highest over/under of the week, and all things considered, I think it’s more likely the under will win here. I’m expecting a game in the range of 23-20 (43) to 28-24 (52), giving us an edge on the under. However, I want to warn anyone making this bet – this is a bigger gamble than some other bets this week. I wouldn’t be shocked if this game ends up something like 33-24, so it’s not an easy pick here. I’m picking the under, but that doesn’t mean you have to agree with me.

This article was written by Jess

Jess is the editor of MobileSportsBetting.com. His job duties include everything nobody else is doing, and making sure it all gets done on time. When he gets a chance, Jess loves to write about NFL, MLB, Formula 1, and tennis betting.


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