It’s a high-profile crunch contest to open December and Match Day 14 in the Premier League on Saturday when front-runners Chelsea visit Etihad Stadium to face Manchester City.

Both first-year managers — Antonio Conte at Chelsea and Pep Guardiola at City — have done masterful jobs with their sides in what could be one of the most closely contested title races among a bunch of teams in years. The Blues hold a slim one-point lead over both Liverpool and Manchester City, with Guardiola’s team narrowly trailing the Merseyside squad on goal difference for second.

Chelsea are the in-form team of the moment in the Premier League, with seven wins on the bounce since being swept aside 3-0 at Arsenal on Sept. 24. Conte made the switch to a three-man backline — which he used to great success at Juventus before arriving in London this summer — in the second half of that defeat, and Chelsea have outscored opponents 19-1 during their impressive run to the top of the table.

That lone goal allowed came Saturday, ending a 601-minute shutout streak before Chelsea rallied past Tottenham Hotspur to win their London derby 2-1. Pedro brought Chelsea level just before halftime and Victor Moses scored the match-winner shortly after the interval as the Nigeria international has finally found a home with the Blues after predecessor Jose Mourinho had loaned him out to Liverpool, Stoke City and West Ham United.

Manchester City, who have qualified for the knockout round of the Champions League with a match to spare, are expected to field a full-strength lineup for this contest. The Citizens are unbeaten in their last six contests (4-2-0) across all competitions but finally won back-to-back league matches for the first time since late September following their 2-1 win at Burnley last Saturday.

Sergio Aguero’s goals on either side of halftime wiped out an early deficit for City, giving the Argentine striker a staggering 33 goals in his last 34 matches. The win capped an exhausting week for Guardiola’s team, which also won at Crystal Palace in Match Day 12 around a Champions League draw at Monchengladbach that secured passage to the round of 16 in Europe’s most prestigious club tournament.

Aguero is Chelsea’s bogey man

There is a reason bet365 has Aguero at 20/21 odds to score in this match — he has absolutely tormented Chelsea during his career. The man they call “Kun” has nine goals in 11 career matchups, including a hat trick in a 3-0 drubbing at Stamford Bridge in April in the most recent meeting between the teams. Aguero has had either a goal or an assist in five of City’s last six matches against Chelsea in all competitions, and the South American striker appears poised to continue his rich run of form.

Costa, Hazard and Pedro serve as fulcrum of Chelsea’s offence

After struggling in their title defence last season, Conte’s 3-4-3 formation has allowed Chelsea to flood forward to create scoring opportunities. Hazard, the 2014-15 PFA Player of the Year, has rebounded from a disastrous 2015-16 campaign to serve as primary playmaker. He, Costa and Pedro have combined for 13 of the 19 goals in this seven-game winning streak, and Costa has shown off playmaking skills of his own with three assists in that span.

Both players, though, have not enjoyed much success against Manchester City. Costa has one goal in four lifetime matches, while Hazard found the back of the net for the first time in 10 career contests in a 5-1 FA Cup victory in February in which City sacrificed their title hopes by playing a youth-laden squad.

Who Will Be in Guardiola’s Midfield?

With the return of Yaya Toure to the fold in league play, Guardiola has an embarrassment of riches in the midfield, which will be the centre of the action of this game. Toure, though, could make way for Kevin De Bruyne if he wants to drop the Belgian behind Aguero and Nolito in attack and pair the Belgian with Raheem Sterling in a diamond to counter Chelsea’s 3-4-3 that will see N’Golo Kante give chase throughout the centre of the park.

My Bet Choices for the Manchester City-Chelsea Match

• The recommendation to punters using the bet365 lines is to take the OVER of 2.5 goals at 8/11 odds. All three matches last season featured at least three goals, and there is too much firepower in both directions to predict a 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 or 2-0 scoreline as the final outcome.
• For goal-scorers, Aguero at 20/21 odds to find the back of the net anytime is a strong play given his historical success against Chelsea, and even putting down a wager as a multi-goal scorer at 9/2 odds doesn’t take much convincing.
• On the Chelsea side, Hazard scoring at any time is a better value bet at 12/5 than Costa at 7/5 since Hazard likely will be at the centre of more potential goal-scoring plays. Chelsea’s best scoring chances likely will come on the counter given how City likes to play the ball.
• And lastly, De Bruyne at 6/1 odds for the first goal could be a sleeper pick. The Belgium international has the work rate and the footballer IQ to find creases in Chelsea’s backline in the final third to deliver that all-important 1-0 advantage.

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