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Bet on #6 Baylor to Win ATS Against #11 Nebraska

#6 Baylor Bears vs. #11 Nebraska Cornhuskers Round 2 Preview

Start Time: Friday, March 21st 2014 at 12:40pm ET
Location: AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas
Watch: TruTV

The #6 Baylor Bears 24-11 (9-9 Big 12) finished 2nd in the Big 12 conference tournament, losing to ISU in the finals. This team brings a lot to the table and I feel that they’re slightly underrated. The last time Baylor was in the tournament (2012) they won three games.

Baylor will be playing the #11 Nebraska Cornhuskers 19-12 (11-7 Big Ten). Nebraska started the season poorly, but they’ve started to play better basketball down the stretch. Nebraska has wins over Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin since the end of January.

Baylor vs. Nebraska Betting Lines

Nebraska is a +3.5 point underdog on Friday against the Bears and the line is unlikely to move much. About 70% of the action is on the Bears to cover ATS at the time of writing. The over/under is set at 131 points and almost all of the action is on the over.

Cornhuskers @ Bears Stat Pack

Why I’m Betting on the Baylor Bears

First off, this Bears team has some tournament experience despite not making it last year. Seniors Cory Jefferson, Brady Heslip and Gary Franklin will look to end their collegiate careers with one last run. Look for these players to play a big role for the Bears.

Nebraska hasn’t made the big dance since 1998 and the school has never won a March Madness game either (0-6 Record). None of the players on this team have any March Madness experience and that is something I always look at this time of the year.

The Bears will have a size advantage as well in this game, especially when the Cornhuskers are playing with four guards like they do often. Nebraska may play 7’1’’ C Sergei Vucetic to try and counter 7’1’’ C Isaiah Austin, but Vucetic only averages 2.3 MPG.

Nebraska struggles on the glass to begin with, but against a T25 rebounding team it’ll be even tougher. Nebraska isn’t a great 3-point shooting team either, as they’re shooting 33.9% from deep this season (184 of 543), so it’s unlikely they steal the game that way.

Scoring in the paint will be difficult whenever Austin is on the floor as well. Austin has 114 blocks this year (3.3 BPG), which is more than the entire Nebraska team (92 Blocks). Baylor has edges everywhere on the floor and I’d be surprised if they can’t win ATS.

Stars That Will Play A Major Role

Corey Jefferson leads the Bears in points (13.5 PPG) and rebounds (8.4 RPG). I’m not sure who is going to be able to cover him in the post, especially when Austin is on the floor drawing coverage. Jefferson can also shoot the deep ball on rare occasions (14 of 33).

Terran Petteway is the leader on Nebraska and he’s putting up big numbers (18.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG & 1.6 APG). Petteway can score from inside the paint or beyond the arc, which makes him very dangerous. Expect the Bears to zone in on Petteway as the game wears on.

X-Factor in this Game

I think the x-factor in this game will be the 3-point shooting of Baylor. The team is shooting 39% from deep. Heslip can kill a team if he heats up. He is shooting 47.3% from deep this year (112 of 237). Cherry and Franklin also like to shoot from distance.

Bet On the Over in BAY @ NEB

The action on the total has been one sided and I agree with the over of 131 points. If you take away Baylor’s last game the team is scoring a lot more recently and Nebraska will have trouble matching the depth of the Bears in the paint and on the perimeter.

Baylor also gives up a fair amount of points, so Nebraska will likely score enough for this game to head over the total. However, with all of the action on the over I’d be weary. My best bet on this game is Baylor, but I also lean to the over based on how I see things.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.

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