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Best Over/Under Odds for Oklahoma at West Virginia Week 12

Oklahoma Sooners (8-2) @ West Virginia Mountaineers (8-1)

  • Where: Milan Puskar Stadium . Morgantown, West Virginia
  • When: November 19, 2016 7:00 pm EST
  • Spread: Oklahoma -3.5 vs West Virginia +3.5
  • Moneyline: Oklahoma (-155)
  • Over / Under: Over 67.5 (-110) or Under 67.5 (-110)

Who: #8 Oklahoma Sooners (8-2, 7-0 Big 12) at #10 West Virginia Mountaineers (8-1, 5-1 Big 12)
Where: Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, West Virginia
When: Saturday, November 19th at 8 PM EST
Over / Under: 67.5 at Bovada Sportsbook

2 weeks ago, these Big 12 powerhouses were looking forward to their Nov. 19th showdown as a means of deciding the conference championship. West Virginia owns 1 loss in the Big 12 while Oklahoma is undefeated in league play, but a home win Saturday would give the Mountaineers a tie-breaker in pocket and cause to cheer for OKST to lose their state championship game vs. OU on 12/3. Meanwhile, the Sooners have recovered well from losses to Houston and Ohio State but were still suffering in national polls as of last week.

The recent slew of top-10 upsets has changed all that. With Michigan, Washington, Ohio State, Clemson and Auburn suffering unexpected defeat in the last 2 weeks, the Big 12 title could determine more than pride and a Cotton Bowl appearance. If a 1 or 2-loss Big 12 team manages to finish 1st in the conference and win out, further chaos at the top could convince the College Football Playoff committee to at least take a flyer on them.

Oklahoma at West Virginia was already a marquee prime-time Saturday matchup, but now potential CFP intrigue takes the drama to another level.

The Bovada money line has visiting Oklahoma the favorite at -155, with an O/U of 67.5.

West Virginia Turning Point?

Dana Holgorsen arrived at West Virginia in 2011 and brought a high-tempo, cutting edge spread offense with him. Regretfully, good defense has been lacking in Morgantown since then, as it has for much of the Big 12.

However, in 2016-17 the Mountaineers have shown life on more than 1 side of the ball. WVU has held TCU to 10 points, Kansas State to 16 points and beat Texas with a last-minute defensive stand last Saturday. The unit is not gobbling up sacks (Justin Amdt and Noble Nwachukwu are tied at 3 each for the team lead), but is stout enough against the run. Tall senior CB Rasul Douglas has 6 interceptions on the year.

In a 37-20 loss to Oklahoma State, WVU did not play poor defense but rather the offense, led by dual-threat QB Skyler Howard, turned it over 3 times in their own territory. For once, it is not the ‘D that is haphazard and inconsistent in Morgantown.

Oklahoma – Sooners Than Expected

The Oklahoma Sooners fell victim to 2 dynamic, speedy shotgun-spread attacks earlier this season, losing to Houston and Ohio State by a combined 78-47. Since then, the defense has played well enough to win games, despite some troubling injuries.

HC Bob Stoops lost a promising defensive end, Matt Dimon, with an achilles injury in September. It was announced this week that Dimon’s career at OU is over. However, the fine cornerback duo of Jordan Thomas and Dimitri Flowers should be healthy this week, or at least in playing shape after injuries hampered them early in 2016-17.

Meanwhile, the Sooners’ powerful and clever “multiple” offense keeps clicking right along, averaging around 600 yards per game in league play. QB Baker Mayfield is building a name as a star on the national stage, throwing for over 3000 yards and 30 touchdowns so far in his junior campaign. Sophomore Joe Mixon is averaging 7 yards per carry.

Safe to Take the Over?

67.5 might be considered a conservative point total given the explosiveness of these 2 contenders. But West Virginia has been playing solid defense, and high-pressure prime time games are unpredictable.

Mayfield will benefit from a lack of pocket pressure by the Mountaineers, a vital part of home field advantage that WVU can’t always capitalize on due to a pedestrian pass rush. It’s easy to see Oklahoma giving up 35+ points and turning Mayfield loose to catch up.

But it’s also possible that the suddenly high-pressure, playoff-implications scenario will cause each QB and his receivers to clam up a bit. Also, the forecast is calling for rain and potentially wet snow flurries.

A sloppy, turnover-filled game could easily fall below the O/U, or hex the favored visitors with a bad break. If you must, bet on hot Oklahoma to win…but it’s far from a sure thing.

Kurt BoyerThis article was written by Kurt Boyer

A freelance sportswriter from Missouri, Kurt has covered court, gridiron, rink and ring for 10+ years. He muses about High School football on social media as The Gridiron Geek.

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