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Best Over/Under Odds for LSU at Texas A&M Week 13

LSU Tigers(6-4) @ Texas A&M Aggies(8-3)

  • Where: Kyle Field. College Station, TX
  • When: November 24, 2016 7:30 pm EST
  • Spread: LSU -4 vs Texas A&M +4
  • Moneyline: LSU -205 vs Texas A&M +173
  • Over / Under: Over 44 -120, Under 44 +100

A popular school of thought claims that once SEC teams are eliminated from the CFP and conference championship races, their level of motivation takes a nose dive.

That could be true for Texas A&M, who began the year by winning 6 straight, including a triumphant 45-38 home win over a strong Tennessee team. The next week, the Aggies were bruised and beaten 33-14 by Alabama, and have gone 2-2 since then…including 2 agonizing conference losses to Ole Miss and Mississippi State.

Louisiana State University has suffered a topsy-turvy season that saw long-time head coach Les Miles fired after 4 games, a blue-chip NFL running back shut down by the Crimson Tide, and key players sidelined with injury.

Yet the Tigers have kept fighting despite a 6-4 overall record and 4-3 conference mark against a bear of an SEC-West schedule. Under interim HC Ed Orgeron, the Tiger defense is currently ranked 1st in the Southeastern Conference with a stingy 102 points-against.

LSU has responded well to adversity. The gut-wrenching 18-13 loss to Auburn on September 24th (which signaled the end of the Les Miles era) was followed by a 42-7 blowout of Missouri. After the frustrating 10-0 home-field loss to Alabama, the Tigers rebounded with a convincing 38-10 triumph over ranked Arkansas. But after last Saturday’s heart-breaking 16-10 loss to Florida, the squad will need to summon their courage once again.

Meanwhile, A&M can reach the 10-win plateau for the 1st time since Johnny Manziel’s senior season of 2012-13 with victories on Thanksgiving night and in what will likely be a winnable bowl game.

Bovada Sportsbook gives an O/U of 44 points, with a money line of -205 for favored LSU.

LSU – Run To Win

As Leonard Fournette goes, so do the Tigers. The swift, powerful junior RB has missed 4 games in 2016-17 but has maintained a remarkably consistent 5+ yards-per-carry average over a celebrated career.

Against Ole Miss on October 22nd, Fournette rushed for 284 yards and LSU won easily. The following week, Alabama’s NFL-recruits held the future draft pick to less than 40 yards in the Tide’s shutout win. Lather, rinse, repeat – the star ball-carrier rushed for 98 yards in the team’s subsequent victory at Arkansas, but limped to only 40 in the loss to Florida.

Junior QB Danny Etling is a role player and can’t produce touchdown drives on his own without a push up front. A long-shot prop bet would be on Fournette to carry for 157+ yards on Thursday and break the 1000-yard mark – if the Tigers take an early lead or Orgeron decides to bank on his best athlete, it could happen.

The team has confirmed that senior LB and Butkus Award finalist Kendell Beckwith is out with a knee injury and will not play in the prime-time contest.

Texas A&M – Can They Finish?

Hot starts and poor Novembers have been a trademark of the Kevin Sumlin era in College Station. After going 2-3 in their last 5 games, the Aggies will look to reverse that trend with a Turkey Day upset.

A&M’s passing game has been livelier than LSU’s. Trevor Knight has passed for almost 2000 yards and 13 touchdowns, and tall senior WR Josh Reynolds could be on his way to a 1000-yard campaign.

If you don’t mind the risk, a future may be wagered on Texas A&M to win 10 games. Most bowl projections have the squad facing the 4th-place team from the Big 12, currently the weakest P5 conference, in the Texas Bowl on December 28th.

That could be an easy win for an SEC contender.

Value on The A&M Side

Conference rivalries are never a sure thing, but there are some definite trend lines within this match-up.

LSU’s status as 5-point favorites is probably based on their defense, which held Alabama and Arkansas to 10 points each and Florida to less than 300 yards. However, the loss of Beckwith will hurt the Tigers’ ability to corral a physical team on the road.

Prime-time weekday games are a recruiting bonanza and an opportunity for a program to shine in the national eye. But if there is a team with more to play for on Thursday, it’s the Aggies, who are out to prove they can win a big contest in November.

Look for a tight contest that could go either way. Given LSU’s defensive prowess and sluggish offense, your best value is in the under, or a future on A&M winning 10 games including a bowl.

Take the under at Bovada Sportsbook.

Kurt BoyerThis article was written by Kurt Boyer

A freelance sportswriter from Missouri, Kurt has covered court, gridiron, rink and ring for 10+ years. He muses about High School football on social media as The Gridiron Geek.

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