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49ers vs. Falcons Over/Under

I want to take a look at the 49ers vs. Falcons over/under for the Sunday, NFC Championship game at the Georgia Dome. This is going to be a great game and while most bettors have shown interest in the over I’m bucking the trend and betting the under.

The over/under opened at 47 points, but steady action has brought the total up two points at most online & mobile sportsbooks. The Bovada Sportsbook is the place to bet the under, currently at 49 (-110).

US Friendly
US Friendly
o49 (-110) / u49 (-110)
o48.5 (-110) / u48.5 (-110)

SF vs. ATL Over or Under?

After the offensive explosion by both teams last week not many people are considering the under. Atlanta scored 30 points on the Seahawks, and the 49ers put up 45 against the Packers – both over their season averages.

Atlanta allowed 28 points and the 49ers allowed 31 points. Throughout the regular season the 49ers allowed an average of 17.1 PPG (2nd) while the Falcons allowed 18.7 PPG (5th). The under is 7-2 in games played at the Georgia Dome this year.

Aside from the breakdown in the 4th quarter, the Falcons played great defense against Seattle. Atlanta allowed Seattle to score 3 TD’s in the 4th quarter on quick drives of 80 yards (in 4:10), 62 yards (in 1:50) and 61 yards (in 2:29) to make it 28-27 SEA.

Atlanta held to Marshawn Lynch to just 46 rushing yards and 1 TD on 16 carries, but they struggled to contain Russell Wilson, as he rushed for 60 rushing yards and 1 TD on just 7 carries. Atlanta has to make adjustments in order to limit Kaepernick on the ground.

Kaepernick set a new NFL playoff record with 181 rushing yards and 2 TD’s by a QB. He also threw for 263 passing yards, with his #1 target Michael Crabtree hauling in 9 receptions for 119 yards and 2 TD’s. Stopping this offense is going to be tough.

The 49ers defense gave up 24 points to the Packers, as 7 points came from an INT return by Shields. They limited Rodgers to 257 yards through the air for 2 TD’s and 1 INT. After keeping Rodgers in check I expect the Niners to be able to keep Matt Ryan in check as well.

This is going to be the best WR duo that the 49ers have had to face in recent weeks. Roddy White and Julio Jones are both 1000+ yard WR’s, and both were productive last week. White had 5 receptions for 76 yards and 1 TD while Jones had 6 receptions for 59 yards.

A lot of people have been talking about Tony Gonzalez as well this week, as he had 6 receptions for 51 yards and 1 TD. I don’t think Gonzalez is going to be a big factor in this game though, as SF only gives up an average of 39.6 YPG to the TE position (7th).

Even with two stud WR’s and a great TE, the 49ers are going to be tough for Matt Ryan to beat downfield. The 49ers were 4th against the pass this season (200.2 PYPG) and after holding Rodgers to under 250 passing yards they should do fine in Atlanta.

Keys for the 49ers vs. Falcons Staying Under the Total

This is the biggest factor in the game. After rushing for 323 yards against the Packers, the 49ers are going to try and pound the ball with Frank Gore and let Kaepernick run the option/draw plays once the Falcons O-line has worn down.

Atlanta did great stifling Lynch, but Wilson was able to pick-up too many yards per attempt (8.6 YPA). John Abraham, who leads the defense with 10 sacks tweaked his ankle injury again against Seattle and he’s currently questionable.

It appears that Abraham is going to give it a shot, but he’ll be limited and that hurts the O-line. With Abraham hurting, Jonathan Babineaux will need to step up his game and the LB’s need to sell out to the run to keep every hole downfield closed.

I was surprised that the Falcons had their running game going against the Seahawks, but I think that’ll be even harder against SF, as the bruising Niners D-line and LB’s limit teams to just 94.2 RYPG (4th). Atlanta will have to live and die by the passing game.

The 49ers ranked 1st in the NFL by only allowing an average 5.7 yards per pass attempt this season. San Francisco has only given up 38 passes for 20+ yards (2nd), and I expect the Falcons to have a tougher time passing on than they did against Seattle.

49ers vs. Falcons Over/Under Pick

With everything considered, on top of a rising over/under, I think the value is on the under. This game could go either way, but it’s all about likelihood. The Georgia Dome is 7-2 on the under this year, and the betting public is looking too much at the games last week, bringing the 49ers vs. Falcons over/under too high imo.

Related Article:

49ers vs. Falcons Betting Lines

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.

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