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#3 Alabama vs. #11 Ole Miss Point Spread Betting Preview

by —September 30, 2014 in All Sports, NCAA

#3 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. #11 Ole Miss Rebels Preview – CFB Week 6

Start Time: Saturday, October 4th 2014 at 3:30pm ET
Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi
Station: CBS

The Alabama Crimson Tide 4-0 (1-3 ATS) have been a poor bet ATS this season, but that’s nothing new, as Bama is a public team and a lot of their lines are inflated. The Ole Miss Rebels 4-0 (3-0-1 ATS) have been a big surprise this year and I can’t wait for this game.

Alabama vs. Ole Miss Point Spread Line

Live Odds @ Bovada (USA)

Only the point spread has been released for this match-up, but expect a total to be released later in the week. I’m jumping on Bama now, as I can only see this point spread increasing by Saturday. It wouldn’t surprise me if the line were –7 or –7.5 points by kick-off.

Crimson Tide vs. Rebels Stats Pack

The Crimson Tide has played a tougher schedule than Ole Miss, yet they still rank better in most categories. To be honest, Ole Miss has played a cupcake schedule up to this point and I expect them to get a strong dose of reality at home on Saturday afternoon.

Three Reasons Why Alabama Will Cover ATS Against Ole Miss

If Amari Cooper can continue tearing up the opposition he’ll be a Heisman candidate by the end of the year. He ranks 3rd in catches (43), 2nd in receiving yards (655) and 8th in receiving TD’s (5), but you also have to consider the level of talent he’s up against.

Cooper actually had limited playing time against the cupcake opponents to start the year, but that’ll no longer be the case with the tough SEC schedule in front of Bama. Last week Cooper had 10 receptions for 201 yards and 3 TD’s against the Gators.

I thought Florida stood a chance last week against Bama. Florida actually forced four turnovers, which was unexpected and they still ended up being dominated. Florida only put up 200 total yards of offense against Bama and Ole Miss won’t exceed that by much.

Ole Miss has wins over Boise State (35-13), Vanderbilt (41-3), LA-Lafayette (56-15) and Memphis (24-3). Even though Ole Miss has played weak competition they’re still struggling with turnovers (9), which is bad news against a defense as good as Alabama.

I normally don’t put much weight in H2H trends from previous years, but Alabama has owned Ole Miss. Alabama is 10-0 SU in the last 10 H2H meetings and in the last five H2H meetings Bama has actually won by double digits in each game.

In the last four years Alabama has been favored by –20, -27.5, -31 and –14 against Ole Miss. I know that the Rebels have a better defense this season, but no one really knows how good this defense is because they haven’t played anyone yet.

Alabama vs. Ole Miss Picks

Bo Wallace will need to have the game of his life to beat Bama at home and I just don’t see that happening. Alabama has one of the best rushing defenses (62.0 YPG – 3rd) in the nation and Ole Miss won’t be able to pick up any consistent yards on the ground.

Blake Sims has been much more impressive than Wallace at QB. Sims can beat you through the air or with his feet and he hasn’t made many mistakes. I also think Bama will have a run-heavy game plan, as Ole Miss allows 114.5 RYPG (34th).

T.J Yeldon has been a bit of a letdown to start the season and Derrick Henry has stolen a lot of carries. Yeldon and Henry will both carry the football 10+ times and wear down this Rebels defense that I feel is overrated at this point due to an easy SOS.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting.


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