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Wimbledon Ladies’ Championship – Gambling Odds and Prediction

United States(57 Titles) @ United Kingdom(36 Titles)

  • Where: All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club. London, England
  • When: July 3, 2017 5:30 am EST
  • Moneyline: Petra Kvitova (+450), Karolina Pliskova (+450), Garbine Muguruza (+1200), Johanna Konta (+1400), Venus Williams (+1400), Jelena Ostapenko (+1400), Angelique Kerber (+1400), Simona Halep (+1400)

What if someone had said at the beginning of the 2017 professional tennis season that Venus Williams would be a top-5 favorite to win Wimbledon, and her little sister Serena wouldn’t even be playing in the Championship?

99 out of 100 pundits would have laughed off such a ridiculous claim. Yet that is the situation as London prepares to host another edition of its legendary tournament.

Venus is awash in scandal, accused of killing an elderly motorist. And she’s very old in tennis years. But her encouraging play at two 2017 Grand Slams has the attention of odds-makers. Meanwhile, Serena is on maternity detail until 2018.

The popular logic is that the absence of Meka (and Maria Sharapova) makes this Ladies’ bracket a wide-open affair. But that’s never as true as it sounds. After all, if neither the Williams sisters or Sharapova ever chose to play tennis, the field as it stands would have its stars, underdogs and also-rans just like any other competition.

Where is the betting value? Should cash players wait one or two rounds and analyze the form of their picks before laying down a wager, or are there already names jumping out from the futures board? Let’s take a look at the favorites.

Also, if you’re reading our preview mid-week or after Wimbledon has begun, be sure to scroll down for our mid-tournament bet recommendations…after reading about the contenders, of course.

Don’t need no stinkin’ recovery time

Petra Kvitova is one of two players installed as 4.5/1 favorites on the Bet Online futures board. While it’s interesting that bookies have installed a mere pair of athletes as the only sub-1000+ money line bets, it’s more interesting that Kvitova is one of them.

That’s because the 26 year-old was attacked in her home by a knife-wielding criminal six months ago, and suffered ghastly hand injuries. Doctors doubted she would play at all in 2017, but the two-time Wimbledon champion entered the French Open and won a match, and then won a tournament in Birmingham last weekend to “complete” her recovery.

The other top name on the futures board, Karolina Pliskova, reached her first Grand Slam final at the U.S. Open last season. She was in the semis at the French Open in 2017. A powerful server, the Czech is considered a potent threat to win on the grass surface of London and beat Caroline Wozniacki to win at Eastbourne.

However, Pliskova has not once in her career made it past the second round at Wimbledon.

Obviously, a bet on either favorite is problematic. Wagering on the courageous Kvitova is like betting on injured Andy Murray to win the Gentleman’s trophy – an appealing but flawed gamble with at least a 20% or 30% liability factor.

A gaggle of girls at (+1400)

Place a bet on Jalena Ostapenko to win the Ladies Singles competition and receive a 50% sign-up bonus from Bet Online.

Garbine Muguruza enjoys (+1200) odds to win Wimbledon. That places her just a pace ahead of a boat-load of contenders at (+1400) that includes Venus Williams, Angelique Kerber and Simona Halep.

Muguruza was a finalist in 2015, but there is nothing about her form this season to suggest she is a value bet at 12/1.

Meanwhile, Queen V is 37 years old and staring at a long court battle, while Kerber has been struggling to produce the fireworks of 2016 (despite maintaining her now-dubious World #1 ranking) and lost in the Quarterfinals at Eastbourne.

Halep has been playing well in fits and starts…but disappointed in the French Open final and lacks a powerful serve. That’s a big disadvantage at All England Club.

MSB recommends an outright-winner bet on Jelena Ostapenko, who won the French Open – and her first tournament – last month in a stirring comeback over Halep. Ostapenko, a Latvian native who is too young to order a legal state-side beer, is a power-player with the serve and dogged determination to proper on the grass court.  With other favorites over-valued or having troubles of their own, her age and “flash in the pan” criticism seem like hollow reasons to pass up a bet on an athlete who could become the next rising star to win two Grand Slams in a calendar year.

Turning weekday blues green

If you are reading this after the tournament has begun, bear in mind that there is still value in a wager on Ostapenko. It will take more than a win or two to silence skepticism over her age and unproven status in London, so her odds are still likely to promise a nice payoff.

But if your style is to watch the first couple of rounds and then bet based on form, it could pay off to watch Venus Williams closely. The Queen has won five times at Wimbledon and her resurgent form in 2017 means that she might have one last run left in the tank. Venus can out-gun the struggling Kerber, out-serve Halep and out-fox Muguruza if necessary. But if she’s losing too many late-set games (or even going to dramatic late finishes early) then the 20 year-old from Riga is still the best available pick by a fairly wide margin.

Some things never change

Individual sports are often subject to flawed hype and media misdirection. That’s because so many players are competing, and there are so many pitfalls in the offing, that pundits trying to put a pretty bow on their predictions will inevitable ignore many factors.

There’s no such thing as a sure-fire bet in a field of dozens of great players. So take the value and go with the up-and-comer with the least issues coming into London. Ostapenko is young and unproven, but in hindsight her 14/1 odds may look like a product of pure skepticism as she hoists another major trophy before turning 21.

Kurt BoyerThis article was written by Kurt Boyer

A freelance sportswriter from Missouri, Kurt has covered court, gridiron, rink and ring for 10+ years. He muses about High School football on social media as The Gridiron Geek.

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