When: Monday, July 14th 2014 at 7:00pm ET
Where: Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota
Watch: Live on ESPN

I’m sure you’ve heard by now, but if not, the 2014 MLB Home Run Derby is on Monday. The competition has an entirely new format that’ll aim to make the event more exciting for the fans. The event will be shorter this year than in years past, which is good news.

Explaining the New Format

This year has seen some major changes to the format of the Home Run Derby.

Similar to in years past, a captain was selected from each team (AL & NL) and they selected who they wanted. This year Bautista is the captain of the American League team and Troy Tulowitzki is the captain of the National League team.

Instead of four players on each team like last year, this year each team will have a total of five sluggers. One of the major changes to the format is that each player will only receive seven outs each round rather than ten outs. I still expect to see some high HR totals posted despite having three less outs.

• Round 1: Everyone gets seven outs to hit the most home runs. The top three players on each team advance with the HR leader on each team advancing directly into the semi-finals (Round 3).

• Round 2: In this round the competition goes H2H. Each player gets seven outs again. The AL player and NL player that hit the most HR’s will both advance to the next round (SF).

• Round 3: This round is the same as #2. The two players in the AL battle H2H while the two players in the NL battle H2H. The player that hits the most HR’s in each of the H2H matches will advance.

• Round 4: The winner from the AL team and the winner from the NL team battle it out in the finals to determine who’ll win the Home Run Derby. Like every other round, each hitter will have seven outs.

2014 HR Derby Betting Lines

Live Odds @ the Bovada Sportsbook ($250 Bonus)

Bovada has just released the odds for the 2014 Home Run Derby and unsurprisingly, Giancarlo Stanton is the favorite. Jose Bautista, Yasiel Puig and Yoenis Cespedes are all close behind Stanton. With the new format this derby should be extremely competitive.

• Giancarlo Stanton NL (+250) – Home Runs: 21 (16.6 AB/HR)

• Jose Bautista AL (+500) – Home Runs: 17 (18.1 AB/HR)

• Yoenis Cespedes AL (+500) – Home Runs: 14 (24.6 AB/HR)

• Yasiel Puig NL (+500) – Home Runs: 12 (27.8 AB/HR)

• Troy Tulowitzki NL (+650) – Home Runs: 20 (14.8 AB/HR)

• Josh Donaldson AL (+1000) – Home Runs: 20 (17.6 AB/HR)

• Adam Jones AL (+1200) – Home Runs: 16 (23.7 AB/HR)

• Brian Dozier AL (+1200) – Home Runs: 16 (21.6 AB/HR)

• Todd Frazier NL (+1200) – Home Runs: 17 (20.8 AB/HR)

• Justin Morneau NL (+1500) – Home Runs: 13 (24.5 AB/HR)

Who Will Win the 2014 Home Run Derby

Let’s take a look at the National League first. I expect the NL Finals to be between Stanton and Tulowitzki in R3. I’m ruling Morneau out right away and while Frazier could be a surprise contender I don’t see it. Puig has power, but hasn’t hit the long ball well.

Stanton is a beast and hits the baseball with more power than anyone else in the league. I can already tell you that Stanton will hit the longest HR in the derby. I also like Tulowitzki though, as he has the ability to get into a groove and pile up the HR’s.

The American League is much tougher to predict. Bautista and Donaldson are the two I expect to advance into R3. Cespedes has the power, but like Puig – he has struggled this year to hit the long ball. I’m not sold on Dozier or Jones contending this year.

Bautista has the experience in the derby to make his way through to the AL Finals. However, I really like Donaldson to win the AL and advance to the final round. Donaldson has been mashing opposing pitchers all season and his swing is perfect for the derby.

My Predictions to Win the HR Derby

• Bet on Josh Donaldson +1000 to Win

If I’m going to bet on a competition like the Home Run Derby than I want a nice payout if I hit. With all of these great hitters in the event anyone could end up winning. Stanton is a deserving favorite, but I’ll gladly take the 10/1 price on Donaldson to win.

• Round 2: Bautista to beat Cespedes & Tulowitzki to beat Frazier

• Round 3: Donaldson to beat Bautista & Stanton to beat Tulowitzki

• Round 4: Donaldson to beat Stanton

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