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Week 12 Over/Under Bet: Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Seattle Seahawks(7–2–1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers(5–5)

  • Where: Raymond James Stadium. Tampa, Florida
  • When: November 27, 2016 4:05 pm EST
  • Spread: Seahawks -6 (-105) vs. Buccaneers +6 (-115)
  • Moneyline: Seahawks -208 vs. Buccaneers +173
  • Over / Under: Over 45 (-110) vs. Under 45 (-110)

Two of the most exciting young quarterbacks in football face off Sunday – it’s the proven contender Russell Wilson and his Seattle Seahawks vs. the young upstart Marcus Mariota and his Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

These two teams have some similarities in terms of offensive style: Both quarterbacks are able to make plays with their legs. Both teams rely on a running-back-by-committee approach. Both teams have dynamic playmakers at the wide receiver position.

The big difference between these teams, however, is the track record over time. Seattle has made it to the playoffs each of the last four seasons, and two seasons ago made an appearance in the Super Bowl. On the other side, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been last in their division for half a decade.

Despite this difference in team status, the matchup on Sunday has the potential to hold value for interested parties. Let’s take a look at each team individually. At the end of this article you’l find my pick for the over/under, and the best US-friendly betting site for mobile users..

Seahawks Transforming into Super Bowl Contender

With the Seahawks struggled to find a rhythm early in the season, with Russell Wilson back at full strength and improved play on the offensive line, the Seahawks have found their stride recently and look poised to make another run into the playoffs.

Seattle is well-coached, their defense is perennially tough, and they play very disciplined football. They proved their ability to play a full 60-minute game by handing Tom Brady his only loss of the season on a defensive goal line stop in the final seconds of their Week 10 matchup.

While Russel Wilson’s ability to make plays with his legs and get the ball to open receivers is not in question when healthy, the biggest hole for Seattle’s offense this season was their ability to move the ball on the ground, with a leaky offensive line and largely unsuccessful attempts to find a replacement for Marshawn “Beast Mode” Lynch after his retirement from football in 2015.

This has changed in recent weeks, with the Seahawks averaging 124 rushing yards over the last two contests vs. the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles. In fact, the Seahawks were so confident in their future with rookie rusher C. J. Prosise that they waived Christine Michael last week, who had been their leading rusher on the season up to that point.

Unfortunately, this gambit may not have paid off, as Prosise fractured his scapula last Sunday against the Eagles and is expected to miss 8 weeks. Luckily, tailback Thomas Rawls is back in the lineup and can continue to take some of the load of carries.

In summary, the Seattle Seahawks have been a perennial contender in the Pete Carrol era, and their tough play on defense and improved rushing attack provide the two keys you need to win games down the stretch.

Can the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Play a Good Game vs. a Good Team?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at 5 wins, need only one more win over the remaining 6 games to match their win total from last season, though a cursory look at the rest of their schedule reveals that this win might be hard to come by.

The Bucs have only two wins against teams with winning records – a fluky Week 1 victory over the Atlanta Falcons, and last week’s hard-fought performance against the quiet Kansas City Chiefs. The Seahawks and Cowboys (Week 15) will provide tougher tests for second-year QB Marcus Mariota, as will the remaining three divisional games (Saints Week 14, Saints Week 16, Panthers Week 17).

This stretch does not bode well for the mistake-prone Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Going against well-coached teams with veteran quarterbacks, Marcus Mariota will have a very low margin of error – one that he will not be able to cover.

While this season has offered some promising developments – particularly for the Buccaneers’ exciting downfield passing attack with Mike Evans – there’s a good chance that their inexperience will be exposed during the final six games of the 2016/17 season.

And with both the Saints and the Panthers lingering only one game back in the division race, and with the NFC East poised to send at least one if not two wildcard teams to the playoffs, there’s a safe bet to be made that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sputter during the remainder of the season and miss the playoffs once again.

Why I’m Taking the Over for Seattle vs. Tampa

There’s an argument to be made that a banged-up, young, inexperienced Tampa Bay offense will be shut down by the Legion of Boom, and that Seattle will grind out the game on the ground for a low-scoring, uneventful victory. If this game were in Seattle, I would be more inclined toward the under.

However, even though I do think that the Seahawks will shut down the fraudulent Buccaneers offense, I see a lot of potential for Seattle to score points off of Tampa turnovers, and for the Buccaneers to entertain the home crowd with touchdown throws to Mike Evans in garbage time. Furthermore, with the injury to C.J. Prosise, it’s possible we’ll see more pass attempts from Russell Wilson.

In summary, Tampa Bay is on the edge of a fall out of the playoff picture; Seattle is poised to go on a run and develop momentum with a huge road win in Tampa Bay. This makes for an explosive, high-scoring affair, and I recommend the over, listed at 45 at the Bovada sportsbook.

David HeinenThis article was written by David Heinen

David Heinen is a freelance psychology writer by day, inveterate NFL junkie by night. Born and raised on the Green Bay Packers, David is a die-hard Cheesehead, not to mention a cheese enthusiast in his spare time.


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