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Warriors vs. Grizzlies game 3 point spread odds and picks

Bet on Warriors vs. Grizzlies Game 3

Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies – NBA Western Conference Semifinals
Series is tied 1-1.

When: Saturday, May 9th 2015 at 8:00pm ET
Where: FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee
Watch: ABC

MEMPHIS have to be pleased to be heading home with a split in the opening two games at Oracle Arena.

I mentioned the Grizzlies needed to hold the Warriors to under 100 PPG to win in the series preview last week. Golden State exceeded 100 points in game 1 and won (101-86), while they lost game 2 (97-90) and were held to under 100 points.

Mike Conley missed the opener in the series, but he played a big role in the Grizzlies win on Tuesday. Conley led all scorers in the game with 22 points on 8 of 12 shooting from the field. Apart from scoring – he didn’t do much else in his 27 minutes.

Rebounding has been a big issue for the Grizzlies – they’ve been out rebounded 84 to 76 in the series.

The Warriors shooting took a major hit in game 2. Golden State shot 41.9% from the field (31 of 74) and 23.1% on 3-pointers (6 of 26). Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined to shoot 3 of 17 on 3-pointers, while Draymond Green was 3 of 11 on his FGA.

Warriors at Grizzlies betting lines for game 3

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There has been a lot of early action and the Warriors are receiving roughly 70% of the bets (money line and point spread). The point spread opened up at –3.5 points in favor of the GSW and will likely close at –4.5 or –5 points.

Get the best betting lines for the Warriors vs. Grizzlies at Bovada.lv if you live in the US. Alternatively, Bet365 caters to NBA bettors in every other country and they offer a massive $200 cash bonus (100% of first deposit).

Starting line-ups

Golden State Warriors:

Memphis Grizzlies

Game 3 preview: Warriors vs. Grizzlies

What a difference Conley makes in the starting line-up. Not only can he score points, but he’s also a strong defender and will make life for Curry more difficult the rest of the series.

I believe the Warriors loss will prove as a wake-up call more than anything else.

This is a team that ranked 1st in eFG% (54%) and 1st in opponents eFG% (46.9%). The Grizzlies didn’t crack the top ten in either of the two categories, as the Grizzlies ranked 13th in opponents eFG% (49.2%) and 21st in eFG% (48.9%).

Another area where the Warriors have a huge edge is in 3-point shooting.

Golden State ranked 1st in 3-pont shooting percentage during the regular season (39.8%) and we can expect them to hit about 40% of their 3-pointers any given night. In game 1 they hit 13 of 28 3-pointers (46.4%). Game 2 was an anomaly.

Memphis aren’t a team that have done well at defending the deep ball either. During the regular season the Grizzlies ranked 20th in opponents 3-pointers made per 100 possessions (8.83 per 100 possessions).

Randolph and Gasol need to work on establishing a presence in the paint too.

The Grizzlies big men are getting beat up inside by Bogut and Green. The Warriors two big men are combining to average 17.5 RPG, while the Grizzlies two big men are averaging 15.5 RPG. Plus, neither Randolph nor Gasol has registered a block in the series.

GSW vs. MEM predictions

I’m jumping on the –4 point spread while I still can, as I can only see the Warriors spread increasing.

The Warriors are better in basically every major metric. When you shoot as bad as the Warriors did in game 2 – any team can lose to anyone in the NBA. These teams went 1-1 during the regular season at the FedExForum.

The Splash Brothers combined to score 66 points in a 107-84 win at the end of March, while the Grizzlies beat the Warriors (105-98) in December, but Bogut was out at that time. Bogut is clearly making a big difference, as Gasol has yet to have a double-double.

There’s no quarter betting lines out yet, but they’ll be out closer to game time. I’ll be betting on the Warriors point spread – it should be –1.5 points once the market opens.

The Warriors score 27.9 PPG (2nd) in the 1st quarter on average and Memphis averages 24.1 PPG (18th). The Grizzlies are ranked 2nd in opponents points in the opening quarter (22.9 PPG), but they’ve struggled all season at the start of games against the GSW.

Memphis outscored the Warriors in the 1st quarter in game 2 (28-22), but they were outscored in game 1 (32-25). Plus, the Warriors outscored the Grizzlies in every regular season game in 2014-15 (36-21, 31-24 and 30-24) – two of those games were in Memphis.

I love the Warriors to win the opening quarter and it’s my best bet for game 3.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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