#1 USA Sportsbook: Visit Bovada.lv

Upset Alert: Bet Texans ML vs. Raiders in Mexico City on MNF

Houston Texans(6-3) @ Oakland Raiders(7-2)

  • Where: Estadio Azteca. Mexico City, Mexico
  • When: November 21, 2016 8:30 pm EST
  • Spread: Texans +6 (-110) vs. Raiders -6 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Texans (+205) vs. Raiders (-245)
  • Over / Under: Over 46 (-110) vs. Under 46 (-110)

I’m loving the underdogs in NFL week 11 action. The Houston Texans (6-3) lead the AFC South, but they are still getting no respect from NFL bookies, as they’re 6-point underdogs on a neutral field.

The Oakland Raiders (7-2) have been playing great and are in a tight race in the AFC West. In saying that, it feels like the Raiders are being overvalued in a game I project being a toss-up in Mexico City.

Did you know this will be the first Monday Night Football (MNF) game played outside of the USA?

Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders week 11 odds

Join in on the fun and bet on the Texans vs. Raiders at the Bovada Sportsbook.

It’s still fairly in the week, but about 80% of point spread bets have come in on the Raiders to cover and on the game going over 46 points. Over 70% of money line bets are on the Texans to pull off the upset.

Statistical analysis

These teams have played each other once since Derek Carr was drafted and Houston won the game (30-14) in Oakland. Carr completed 27/42 passes for 263 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs in the loss.

Oakland have one of the best offenses in the NFL, but if they want to continue winning and make the NFL playoffs, they need the defense to play better. Injuries have plagued the Raiders defense this season. This week Oakland’s defense could be without Stacy McGee and Sean Lee again.

Houston signed Brock Osweiler to a huge four-year $72 million contract ($37 million guaranteed) during the off-season and he was expected to awaken the offense. It’s safe to say Osweiler has been a bust up to this point, but he hasn’t had to air it out in order for the Texans to win games.

The Texans rely on running the football on offense and playing solid defense. After losing the NFL’s best defensive player in J.J. Watt to injury, the Texans defense has held up well.

Raiders vs. Texans week 11 money line picks

 

Lamar Miller was expected to be a bell cow RB this season, but it hasn’t turned out that way. That’s good, though, as Miller will be fresher down the stretch. Miller, Alfred Blue and Akeem Hunt split carries last week in a win against Jacksonville (24-21). The three RBs combined for 158 rushing yards on 30 carries.

Hammering the football with three RBs eventually wears down the opposing front seven. It also keeps the opposing offense off the field. Oakland allow 4.7 yards per rushing attempt, which is tied for the second-worst mark in the NFL. It wouldn’t surprise me if Houston’s RBs average 5+ yards per carry.

It’s important the Texans keep the football moving to avoid any third down and longs. Oakland are only allowing opposing teams to convert 33.33% on third downs, which ranks them 3rd in the league.

Houston are great against the pass and will need to limit Carr. Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are putting up big numbers again this season, but both have proven susceptible against good secondaries.

This is a toss-up in Mexico City and there’s no way I’m passing up over 2/1 odds on the Texans ML.

Texans vs. Raiders ATS picks for MNF week 11

 

I’m betting 2 units on the Texans +6 to cover ATS and 1 unit on the Texans ML.

Houston aren’t getting any respect despite posting a 6-3 record. This is a primetime game in Mexico and the entire country will be watching. Look for Houston to make a statement.

The run game may be enough to win, but Osweiler could easily have his best game of the season against one of the worst passing defenses. Will Fuller and Jaelen Strong could be back at WR, which would open up space for DeAndre Hopkins who has been smothered in recently due to injuries and lack of depth.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


Related Posts

More Free Betting Picks