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UFC – TUF 24 Finale Odds: Johnson vs. Elliott Picks

Demetrious Johnson(24-2-1) @ Tim Elliott(13-6-1)

  • Where: Palms Casino Resort. Las Vegas, Nevada
  • When: December 3, 2016 6:00 pm EST

The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) Tournament of Champions Finale
Watch: UFC Fight Pass and Fox Sports 1 (FS1)

Before we get into my fight previews and predictions, I wanted to briefly discuss the new format for this season of TUF. This season was dubbed the “Tournament of Champions”. The sixteen fighters were all flyweight competitors that are champions in their respective MMA organization.

I hope we see the UFC repeat this format in other weight classes, albeit with fewer entrants.

TUF 24 semifinals just ended hours ago. #3 seed Tim Elliott fought #5 seed Hiromasa Ogikubo in what I thought was an exciting fight. Both fighters looked noticeably gassed in the third round, but that was the fourth fight for both competitors since the season started on August 31st 2016.

Demetrious Johnson vs. Tim Elliott fight preview

Fight Odds: Johnson (-1275) vs. Elliott (+625)

 

Demetrious Johnson (24-2-1) is the pound-for-pound best fighter in the world. Johnson was crowned the UFC Flyweight Champion in 2012 and has defended the title eight times. He only need to defend his title three more times in order to overtake Anderson Silva for most consecutive UFC title defenses.

The odds aren’t out on this fight yet (We’ll update the fight odds once released), but the best bet will be on Johnson inside the distance (ITD). Johnson is coming off a 1st round TKO win over Henry Cejudo. He has finished five of his last seven opponents and he’s fighting a worn out Tim Elliott (13-6-1).

Elliott fought in the UFC between 2012-15 and he had a 2-4 record. Elliott lost his last three UFC fights before moving to Titan FC. He’s currently the Titan FC Flyweight Champion.

Joseph Benavidez vs. Henry Cejudo fight preview

Fight Odds: Benavidez (-200) vs. Cejudo (+160)

 

Who isn’t excited for Joseph Benavidez (24-4) vs. Henry Cejudo (10-1)? These two weren’t rivals before TUF 24, but they definitely are now. Benavidez is a grizzled veteran who had a shot at the title back in 2012, but he lost to Mighty Mouse by KO in the opening round at UFC on FOX 9.

Cejudo lost his last fight, as we already mentioned in the fight preview above, but he was undefeated before that with UFC wins against Dustin Kimura, Chris Cariaso, Chico Camus and Jussier da Silva.

I’m betting on the underdog. Both fighters have similar striking abilities. Benavidez averages 3.34 SLpM and 2.23 SApM, while Cejudo averages 3.71 SLpM and 2.24 SApM. However, Cejudo will have an edge in takedowns (2.39 vs. 1.29 per 15 minutes) and Benavidez only has 65% TDD (Cejudo 100% TDD).

Jorge Masvidal vs. Jake Ellenberger fight preview

Fight Odds: Masvidal (-285) vs. Ellenberger (+225)

Two more UFC veterans jump into the cage, as Jorge Masvidal (30-11) will fight Jake Ellenberger (31-11) on TUF 24 Finale main card. Who remembers Ellenberger’s six-fight win streak between 2010-12? I used to love betting on The Juggernaut, but he’s 2-5 in his last seven UFC fights dating back to 2013.

Masvidal hasn’t always struggled stringing wins together in the UFC, but he’s a tough out. He’s only 2-5 in his last seven fights also. Both fighters are coming into this off a win, but Masvidal only won a decision against Ross Pearson, whereas Ellenberger knocked out Matt Brown in the first round.

The edge in the stand-up goes to Masvidal. He averages 4.09 SLpM (46% accuracy) and has 69% striking defense, while Ellenberger averages 2.41 SLpM and has 63% striking defense. Ellenberger will need this fight on the mat to win, but he’s only landing 50% of his takedowns.

I’m not betting this fight, but if I was, I’d bet on Masvidal to win by decision, as his ML odds are brutal.

TUF 24 Finale parlay predictions

 

I’m not trying to get greedy here. This is a weak fight card and I expect a lot of upsets. Two favorites I’m confident will win straight-up, though, are Masvidal and Sara McMann (9-3).

McMann is fighting Alexis Davis (17-6). Davis is 4-1 in the UFC and will garner a lot of attention as an underdog value bet, especially when they see McMann is 2-3 in her last five fights. However, let me explain why McMann will win this fight.

It’s rather simple actually. McMann will do everything to take this fight to the mat. She averages 4.87 TDs per 15 minutes (67% accuracy) and Davis only has 50% TDD. McMann will win by decision.

Betting odds for every TUF 24 Finale fight

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ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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