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UFC 194 Picks: Aldo vs. McGregor Betting Breakdown

UFC 194 Betting PreviewWhen: Saturday, December 12th 2015 at 7:00pm ET
Where: MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas
Watch: Fox Sports 1 (Prelims) & PPV (Main Card)

THERE’S no better ticket in sports this weekend than UFC 194 in Las Vegas. For those of us not in Vegas, we’ll be able to catch all of the UFC 194 main card action on PPV. In one of the most anticipated fights in UFC history, Jose Aldo will square off against Conor McGregor for the UFC Featherweight title. The co-main event is a title fight in the middleweight division between Chris Weidman and Luke Rockhold.

Urijah Faber and Max Holloway are both fighting on the UFC 194 card too. This is the final pay-per-view event in 2015 for the UFC and like every year, they like going out with a bang.

Where to bet on UFC 194

UFC 194 Bonus: 50% Cash bonus for up to $250 at Bovada.lv

The Bovada Sportsbook accepts bettors in the USA only. UFC 194 odds are out on every fight, including the prelims. There aren’t many alternative markets released yet, but there will be more markets available before the weekend. Our Canadian readers can bet on UFC 194 at the Bodog Sportsbook.

Aldo vs. McGregor fight odds

This fight has the potential to be one of the best in history. You either love or hate him, but McGregor is what the UFC needed. I’m a fan of the trash talking, but only if you back it up like the Irishman has. The O/U round total surprises me and I’ll explain why I’m confident over 2.5 rounds is the best bet for this fight.

Tale of the tape

Let’s breakdown how these two fighters stack up on paper.

Jose Aldo:
Bet on UFC 194

Conor McGregor:

Aldo vs. McGregor predictions

Here’s an interesting statistic I came across while handicapping this fight. Out of every five minutes in the cage, featherweight fighters average 2:28 at a distance. However, Aldo averages 3:38 and McGregor averages 3:00 in this category. This tells us both fighters are likely to keep their distance, which I believe benefits McGregor.

McGregor hits like a truck, just ask any of his last four opponents (Brandao, Poirier, Siver and Mendes), as he was able to knock them all out in the first or second round. He averages 5.44 SLpM (44% Striking Accuracy) and due to his reach, he throws more than 10.0 power strikes to the head every minute and 41% of those land.

Aldo averages 3.29 SLpM (43% Striking Accuracy) and he mixes in a lot of leg kicks. He averages 4.8 leg kicks at a distance every five minutes and lands 86% of those kicks, which is excellent. Aldo will look to land takedowns and gain top position, but that’s unlikely to happen, as McGregor stops 94% of TD attempts at a distance.

The Brazilian also excels at defense. He blocks 72% of his opponents striking attempts. I believe his defense will carry him deeper into this fight, but McGregor will get a late TKO/KO (4th/5th Round). The Irishman punishes you with body shots and power shots to the head constantly, which Aldo won’t be able to defend for 25 minutes.

Weidman vs. Rockhold picks and odds

Chris Weidman (13-0) will put his UFC Middleweight Championship on the line against Luke Rockhold (14-2) in the co-main event. Since joining the UFC in 2011, Weidman is 9-0 with six stoppage victories. Rockhold lost his UFC debut to Belfort, but has since won four in a row by stoppage, including a submission against Machida.

Rockhold likes to hang back in the pocket and utilize kicks to score points, but he doesn’t do much damage in the cage. Weidman has knockout power every time he winds up and he constantly pushes the pace to put pressure on his opponent. Weidman also averages 3.75 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage. Sometimes Weidman appears sluggish and he also wears out as fights progress. If this fight gets into the 4th and 5th rounds, it would give Rockhold an edge, as he seems to never wear down. However, I expect Weidman to keep the pressure high, land a lot of strikes and win by TKO/KO. Rockhold has been knocked our twice prior.

ScottThis article was written by Scott

Scott is one of the original degenerates working for MobileSportsBetting.com. Although he's most successful betting on NFL football and international soccer, he's also active in UFC and NHL hockey betting. Follow Scott on Twitter


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