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UEFA Champions League Final – Real Madrid vs Juventus Betting Preview

Juventus(28-4-5) @ Real Madrid(29-6-3)

  • Where: Millennium Stadium. Cardiff, Wales (Neutral Site)
  • When: June 3, 2017 2:45 pm EST
  • Spread: Juventus (Pick, +109) vs Real Madrid (Pick, -125)
  • Moneyline: Juventus (+100) vs Real Madrid (-120)
  • Over / Under: Over 2.25 (-108) vs Under 2.25 (-108)

Tennis great Roger Federer caused a rearrangement of betting odds with his decision to skip the French Open despite winning a major early in 2017. In a similar-if-more-subtle way, Monaco Football Club is now affecting odds for June 3rd’s Champions League Final – even though they have been eliminated from the tournament.

If Monaco sells off Kylian Mbappe and other young stars soon, we’ll never know if the exciting side was destined for greatness. But the Montenegrin club’s level of talent is of key importance in gauging how well Juventus has played during their surprise CL run.

Sure, when Vecchia Signora kept clean sheets against FC Porto and Barcelona in the first four legs of the Round of 16, it was impressive. But should Juve receive another golf-clap for shutting down the Red & Whites on two separate pitches for 180 total minutes? Or was their masterful ability to neutralize “Little Messi” a clue that Massimiliano Allegri’s system has fostered an impenetrable defensive fortress?

La Liga champions Real Madrid are in the market for Mbappe. But for now, the side must be – ahem – content with stars like Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema and captain Sergio Ramos. Los Vikingos corked in the semi-finals with a 3-0, 1-2 = 4-2 result over Atletico Madrid, and are playing to become champions of Europe again following the joy of a league triumph.

But is the defending champ’s status as slight money line favorites a product of analysis, or the fact that they were favoured to begin the Round of 16? And can they score on the stubborn Italians?

Down to brass tacks, gentlemen

Our friends at Bet Online have set the O/U line for the CL final at 2.2 and 1/2. That is a gift to bettors (along with the usual sign-up bonus for newbies). MSB strongly recommends the under and calculates at least a 60% chance that both sides will keep opposing strikers from scoring more than once.

European football has never seen anything quite like Juve’s defending, a combination of 4-2-3-1 alignment and swarming, skillful play without the ball. But Allegri’s club will be too preoccupied with Real Madrid’s strikers to mount any type of fantastic offence.

Not only can Los Vikingos boast names like Ronaldo and Ramos, gifted young stallions like Alvaro Morata (acquired from Juventus, no less) lurk in the weeds. Morata has scored 38 goals since coming on-board last season.

Even if the Spanish side penetrates the weird Juventus alignment, however, it must contend with veteran GK Gianluigi Buffon – whose performance against Monaco in the semis persuaded Goal.com to label him the greatest present-day keeper in football.

Remember, penalty-kick goals scored in tie-breakers don’t count toward the O/U. If Real Madrid wins on penalties after another 1-1 draw, as they did before raising the trophy in 2016, the bet wins. If the defending champions score early, then close the door to prevail 1-0, that cashes in too.

In the 2016 final, Los Vikingos mid-fielders like Luka Modric passed up opportunities to take chances. With the side now facing a surprise opponent, we can expect to see more of the same in ’17. Juve’s Argentine duo of Higuain-Dybala has scored nine Champions League goals this go-round but crafty DF Dani Alves has added three more, meaning the Spanish club won’t dare to get out of position and invite large-scale counterattacks.

A cautious, grinding CL final is more likely than a free-for-all. That makes the under a strong value play. Click here to place 2 or 3 units on under (2.25) total goals in the Champions League 2017 Final in Cardiff.

View “sports” and “soccer/UEFA CL” to view the O/U odds before placing your bet, but we’re pretty sure they’re staying put above 2.0 total points.

In-Play on the trailing Spanish

A companion (not a parlay) live-betting opportunity will arise if Juventus takes a 1-0 lead to interval. Real Madrid GK Keylor Navas has the talent and seasoning to remain calm in a crisis, and it is unproven that Juve’s alignment can produce bunches of goals against the La Liga champs.

In this scenario, chances will be good that Los Blancos can manufacture a goal and draw level. To get quality shots on Buffon means passing quickly around a swarming, disruptive defence, and Monaco’s forwards and mid-fielders were too inexperienced and fatigued to make a brilliant job of it. If the favorites are forced to come back from 1-nil in Cardiff, we trust Rocket and company to navigate the pitch and produce at least a tying tally.

Still, chances of a low-scoring result are excellent. If Juventus takes the early lead, odds for a Real Madrid win or a draw will immediately jump long. That sets up a safe, high-payoff, one-unit bet on a draw result or a 1-1 exact score prop.

If Juve shuts the door with a conservative second half and wins 1-0, a larger bet on the O/U still keeps you in the black. But if the result is a 1-1 draw and penalty kicks, nice odds on the in-play plus doubled units on the O/U makes for a rich and rewarding Saturday night.

Those cash-strapped sentimentalists

Yes, we know that a lot of punters will simply bet on their favourite side to win and hoist the trophy. No doubt, that style of wagering can be a fit way to enjoy – or ultimately mourn – the big match.

But it’s not for the serious player. The smart – and minted – gambler’s job is to weigh odds against likely results. Take the under on June 3rd, enjoy a low-scoring match, and let a fattened wallet produce more than 90 minutes of fun.

Kurt BoyerThis article was written by Kurt Boyer

A freelance sportswriter from Missouri, Kurt has covered court, gridiron, rink and ring for 10+ years. He muses about High School football on social media as The Gridiron Geek.


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